Premier League xG Tips: Man City to beat Liverpool to title in Gameweek 38

Arsenal to put pressure on Spurs

Arsenal v Everton
Sunday, 16:00

Arsenal's Monday night defeat at Newcastle means it's advantage Tottenham approaching the final day, but Mikel Arteta's side can still claim fourth if they win and their neighbours lose. A home average of 2.11 xGF would give the Gunners the upper hand even without Everton's worrying away record, and Infogol's model backs the hosts to gain revenge for their defeat in the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Brentford to deny Leeds an important win

Brentford v Leeds United
Sunday, 16:00

Leeds' late point against Brighton last time out ensured there will be something at stake on the final day of the season, but Jesse Marsch might have preferred an easier game. Brentford have averaged 2.10 xGF across their last three home games, picking up seven points in the process, and the visitors will hope the league's second-worst xGA average doesn't end up being their downfall.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Brighton to deny West Ham a top six finish

Brighton & Hove Albion v West Ham United
Sunday, 16:00

Results last weekend ensured West Ham will be playing European football next season, but whether it's in the Europa League or Europa Conference League depends on the result of their game at the Amex Stadium. The Hammers have never beaten Brighton in the Premier League, and Infogol's model expects a 1.72 away xGA average to count against David Moyes' side on the south coast.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Burnley to take final day spoils

Burnley v Newcastle United
Sunday, 16:00

Burnley have spent the bulk of the season in the bottom three, but still have a chance to give themselves another season in the top flight. The Clarets' defeat at St James' Park in December was Newcastle's first win of the campaign, and while several places separate the side ahead of the return game, Mike Jackson's side won't mind if they can get the result they need to secure their safety.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Chelsea to pile more misery on Watford

Chelsea v Watford
Sunday, 16:00

While Chelsea might be some way adrift of the top two, Thomas Tuchel's side should comfortably have too much for Watford. Roy Hodgson's visitors have averaged 2.06 xGA across their last six Premier League games, earning just a single point in the process, and this may be the last opportunity for some players to step out in front of the Hornets support with summer changes expected.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 7.4013/2

Palace to show Ten Hag scale of Man Utd problems

Crystal Palace v Manchester United
Sunday, 16:00

Erik ten Hag will begin life as Manchester United manager with a trip to Selhurst Park, and the Dutchman has a worrying away record to fix. The 4-0 loss at Brighton last time out was a fifth straight away league reverse, with an average of 2.11 xGA per game across that run, and Infogol's model backs Palace to put their impressive home numbers to good effect in south London.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 12.0011/1

Saints to finish with fourth straight loss

Leicester City v Southampton
Sunday, 16:00

Southampton have slowed to a crawl towards the end of the season, picking up just one point from their last five games and averaging 2.05 xGA in the process. The reverse fixture against Leicester ended all-square thanks to James Maddison's second-half leveller, but the Foxes are favoured this time around despite Brendan Rodgers' men averaging 1.79 xGA all season long at the King Power Stadium.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Liverpool to keep Man City honest with win

Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday, 16:00

After coming from behind to beat Southampton on Tuesday, Liverpool can still win the title if they get a result on the final day and Manchester City don't. Infogol's model gives the Reds a huge 84% chance of victory against a Wolves side without a win of their own in six, and a league-best 2.77 xGF per home game should ensure Jürgen Klopp's men ca n hold up their part of the bargain.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 7.6013/2

City to do what they need to clinch title

Manchester City v Aston Villa
Sunday, 16:00

Pep Guardiola's reigning champions will know not to count their chickens after being made to work at West Ham last weekend, but Infogol's model still backs them to take all three points against Aston Villa and win the league for a second straight season. The visitors may be buoyed by their permanent deal for Philippe Coutinho, but an on-song City ought to have too much for the Villans.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 7.206/1

Spurs to seal fourth with a win

Norwich City v Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, 16:00

Tottenham's goal difference advantage over Arsenal means a point should be enough to guarantee Champions League football, but Antonio Conte's men will surely be after all three. That's unlikely to be too difficult against a Norwich side who rank bottom of the league for xGF and xGA as well as actual goals for and against, and Infogol's model backs the London side to sign off with a win.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1