Premier League Tips: Why 25/1 Man Utd can win the title ahead of Manchester derby

• Winning points total set to be lower than previous years

• Casemiro the key to trophy challenge

• Only four points behind City ahead of the derby

Manchester United can win the 2022/23 Premier League title. That is the admittedly absurd-sounding thesis being put to you here, a few days before their clash with Manchester City, and while the 25/1 odds reflect the scale of the task facing Erik ten Hag in his first year in English football the downright weirdness of a winter World Cup has shifted the tectonic plates and made the impossible, possible.

Man Utd are stronger than they appear and their rivals, Manchester City and Arsenal, weaker than the table suggests. They are also just four points behind City and nine behind the Gunners.

But most importantly, the jading effect of Qatar 2022 has the potential to make this season wilder - and more open - than any year since Leicester City lifted the trophy in 2015/16. It would take a much smaller miracle than that for Ten Hag to drastically overachieve.

Man City & Arsenal unlikely to get high points totals

Man City remain favourites to win the league because of their superior depth to Arsenal, who may only be one or two more injuries away from regressing back towards the mean and giving Pep Guardiola's side a window.

But no team came close to City's collective 4633 minutes of action in Qatar and it seems highly likely that fatigue will bring plenty of strange results in the second half of the season.

What's more, Man City are arguably a weaker team this year. Erling Haaland's arrival has triggered a major tactical shift from Pep Guardiola towards slower and stodgier football, partly because his system is unhinged by swapping a false nine for a static nine and partly because Guardiola sold Raheem Sterling to accommodate Haaland's speed.

Without a penetrative and direct winger, City are more easily stopped by low blocks like Brentford's or Aston Villa's.

Consequently it seems probable that this season's title will be back in the normal range of around 85 points, a bounce back from the super-elite years, similar to how the pandemic-hit 2020/21 season - with all its World Cup-style interruptions - led to a drop in points.

Man Utd might just be capable of hitting that figure.

United steadily improving under Ten Hag

The exceptional run United are on has gone under the radar, primarily because their campaign was immediately undermined by back-to-back defeats at the beginning of the campaign.

But since then United have won a remarkable 35 points from 15 matches, which amounts to 2.33 points per game or 89 points over a full season. If the above estimation of this year's title-winning tally is correct, then even a minor improvement on the first half of the season would be enough.

And United look better with every game, the core tactical tenets of Ten Hag's vertical possession becoming clearer to see as the players absorb the intricacies of the positional demands placed upon them.

The underlying numbers show as much: per Opta, United are tenth for high turnovers (135) but fourth for high turnovers that lead to a shot (26), and first for total number of direct attacks (41) but 15th for average 'direct speed' (1.32).

This shows that United are very good at the high-pressing and fast-moving football Ten Hag wants from his team, but they simply don't do those things often enough.

With time, then, things can only get better, especially now that the polar opposite of Ajaxian football - Cristiano Ronaldo - has left the club, lifting a cloud and helping Marcus Rashford create the front three Ten Hag wants.

The improvements can be seen everywhere. Raphael Varane looks far more settled, Luke Shaw is thriving with more detailed coaching, and the central midfield hasn't looked this good since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement.

United supporters should be excited by the fact that Jadon Sancho hasn't yet come good and that Anthony has only excelled in flashes. Eventually, these two will find their feet and take United to another level.

Casemiro-led midfield creates over-performance

In the meantime, and while the more difficult aspects of Ten Hag's football comes together, Man Utd are managing to record wins even when they don't look particularly cohesive.

That's thanks to the sheer genius of Casemiro, whose capacity to break up play, read the opponent as they counter, and cut off threats at source has caused an unbelievable spike in the team's territorial control and defensive sturdiness.

The Brazilian is a threat going forward, too, using his experience to speed up and slow down the game at just the right moment and releasing United's forwards into space. With Ten Hag wanting sharp forward movements to exploit transitional moments, Casemiro's capacity to win the ball and start an attack makes him arguably the best player in the Premier League this season.

Alongside Christian Eriksen, who has found his feet very quickly, United now have a foundation in the middle that keeps things steady and virtually guarantees control - of the ball, but also of the rhythms of a game. From here, it only takes a single moment of quality from Bruno Fernandes or Rashford for United to win matches without playing well.

January signings can spark self-belief

A couple of new recruits might be all that's needed for United to mount a challenge. They could do with an upgrade at right-back, where Aaron Wan-Bissaka doesn't offer enough of a forward threat, while a striker to replace Ronaldo would give them greater depth for the final months of the season.

Finally, a new goalkeeper has to be a priority because David de Gea's inability to sweep outside his area, or distribute effectively, make him an anachronism in this team.

Man Utd winning the 22/23 title isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. A little momentum is all they'll need to start believing, and a win in the Manchester derby on Sunday could be the catalyst, especially with Arsenal facing Spurs the next day.

After that, Man City face Arsenal in mid-February following a string of tough games against the current top five for both sides.

The league table could look completely different in a few weeks' time. As performances continue on an upward trajectory, and as the wins pile up, self-confidence can mix with tactical coherence to create a Manchester United team ready to steal a march in this most uniquely muddled of seasons. Stranger things have happened.