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Tactical perfection makes Arsenal relentless
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Manchester sides are weak challengers
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Europa League and injuries the only obstacles
Arsenal are the odds on favourites (5/6) to win the Premier League title for the first time since February 2016, back when a damaged Arsene Wenger side were briefly frontrunners for the simple reason that, in a fallow year for all of the big clubs, it was simply inconceivable that the leaders at the time would hold on.
Mikel Arteta's outfit triumphing this year would be nowhere near as miraculous as Leicester City's title seven years ago but it would be right up there with the most unlikely of Premier League stories, and after victory in the North London Derby took them eight points clear at the top we have no choice but to take the proposition seriously.
Up until a week ago it still felt as though Arsenal would surely be usurped by the great power of an Erling Haaland-enriched Manchester City but the tide has turned, and while Gunners supporters wouldn't dare jinx it the rest of us must declare they are rightful favourites. It would, in fact, be a huge shock - would take an enormous collapse - for Arsenal to finish second.
Consistency & confidence a tactical victory
Arteta deserves all the praise for putting Arsenal in this position. Throughout his three years in charge Arsenal have always been moving in the right direction, even if at the lowest points the path has been hard to see, and the form shown this season is a vindication of the sophistication of the tactical approach.
Because while recently Arsenal have been lauded for their character, mentality, and unerring confidence even in the face of injuries, all of these qualities stem from the detail in Arteta's tactical blueprint. The automatisms, the specificity of player positioning and movement, and the repetition of an exacting Guardiola-inspired science gives the squad a foundation that cannot collapse. Belief in the omnipotence of the system means confidence never drains and individual players can be seamlessly replaced.
Like his mentor, Arteta preaches total possession domination along with a swarming high press that keeps opponents penned in for a systematic dismantling. Arsenal move the ball in precise rhythms across the width and depth of the pitch, press relentlessly as a unit, and encircle the opposition with their steady metronomic passing.
For a while it looked as though Arteta was different to Pep Guardiola, but after some trial-and-error periods and a brief flirtation with quicker counter-attacking football it turns out he was simply improvising until he had the right players. Now, with Granit Xhaka and Martin Odegaard replicas of Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin de Bruyne; with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli copies of Guardiola's lopsided Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling; and with Thomas Partey the new Rodri, Arteta can enact everything he has been taught.
Unsurprisingly, that has meant a similar level of consistent excellence. Guardiola invented a near-perfect way of playing, one that shattered the usual whims of form or fitness, and Arteta has finally copied the master. That relentlessness should get them over the line.
Manchester clubs can't catch them
It is good fortune that Arteta's Arsenal have clicked into place at the precise moment Guardiola's Manchester City are in decline, and ironic that the mentee has found success sticking to those principles while the mentor inexplicably moves away from them; ironic that Arteta is out-Man Citying Man City, and was even encouraged to do so by taking two of their most important but unheralded players, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus.
Haaland has made Man City worse and it seems unlikely they can make up an eight-point gap. His static presence has made Guardiola play slower and more intricate wingers, losing the directness of a Sterling or a Leroy Sane, while the midfield has become a little lost without a striker pressing from the front or dropping to support them.
Man City's run of two wins in their last five Premier League matches won't continue, of course, yet they will keep dropping points against the likes of Brentford, Aston Villa, and Manchester United - teams happy to sit deep and play on the break. That used to be suicidal against Guardiola's lock-pickers, but this season an ultra-defensive formation makes an already ponderous team even slower.
As for United, whose win last Saturday put them in the title race, it remains unlikely they will catch Arsenal even if it is worth a bet on them at 14/1, as highlighted last week. Erik ten Hag has dismissed their chances based on just how much work is left to be done, and with no move for a world-class centre-forward happening this month Man Utd will - however good - find it extremely difficult to out-perform Arsenal by nine points across the second half of the campaign.
That changes, mind, should United get a result on Sunday at the Emirates in a match that now looks like a six-pointer. But Arsenal are yet to lose at home and United would be satisfied to take a point, a result that keeps them firmly at arms' length.
Europa League and a thin squad
There is a long way to go, and a lot may well be decided over the next few weeks when a string of 'Big Six' clashes ends with Arsenal hosting Man City on February 15. They should be able to get through the next four weeks without any major difficulties, although the real obstacles come after that.
Arsenal have not been active in the transfer window, which could prove to be a major mistake. Question marks remain over how long Eddie Nketiah can cover for Gabriel Jesus and it would only take one more key injury - to Saka, Odegaard, or Partey - for things to unravel. Arsenal's bench is not very deep.
That situation is only made worse by Arsenal's participation in the Europa League, with a last-16 match schedule for mid-March. Unless Arteta chooses to abandon this competition and fly out with academy players the Thursday-Sunday schedule could wreak havoc on an already thin squad.
But even so, an eight-point gap in a year without any particularly strong challengers looks almost insurmountable. Last time Arsenal were odds-on to win the league they had 51 points from 26 games and were two points off the top, with an average of just under two points per game. At the time of writing they are averaging 2.6 points per game and a win on Sunday would put Arsenal on track for a 100-point season.
Arsenal supporters will shut their eyes and cover their ears, not wanting to tempt fate and refusing to believe this can really be happening after almost two decades of disappointment. But everything is in their favour. The title is theirs.