English Premier League

Premier League Tipsheet: Six of the best bets for Saturday from 11/10 to 4/1

Thomas Frank, Brentford boss
Frank's side are not a one-man team

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this weekend started.

  • Kane set to sting the Bees

  • Man United to cement top four place

  • Arsenal to keep fading title hopes alive


Tottenham v Brentford (12:30) - Ivan the terribly missed

It would be wholly wrong and disrespectful to call Brentford a one-man-team.

Ethan Pinnock has statistically been one of the best performing centre-backs in the top-flight this season while Mathais Jensen has accrued double figures for goal involvements from midfield.

All the same, Ivan Toney's importance to the Bees cannot be understated, the striker scoring 0.61 goals per 90, a prolific return that includes six match-winners. He is clearly a considerable loss for Thomas Frank's side.

Toney scored in the corresponding clash between these teams on Boxing Day as too did Harry Kane who is ending his campaign as he started it, with plenty of goals in the middle as well. The England striker has converted in 24 different league games this term. No player has ever managed 25 in the Premier League.

That the game over Christmas finished 2-2 is pertinent because matches involving Spurs in 2022/23 have produced 3.4 goals per 90. Only Arsenal can narrowly top that.

Over 2.5 goals and Kane to score anytime offers up

13/8

Bournemouth v Man United (15:00) - Reds to find away

United have been imperious at Old Trafford all season but their record on the road remains a concern, winning only one of their last six and failing to score in four of them.

The possible absence of Marcus Rashford is a factor too, the 25-year-old bagging 31.4% of the Reds' league goal-haul and furthermore a forward who loves taking on the Cherries. He has only notched more often against Leicester.

Plus-points for the top-four chasers include five clean sheets in eight - all attained at home of course - while David de Gea shouldn't expect too much of a work-out. For all that Bournemouth have impressed in recent months in pulling themselves clear, they have still taken on the fewest number of shots in the Premier League.

One team has an awful lot at stake at the Vitality Stadium this Saturday, the other doesn't. Ultimately, that's what this contest may come down to.

Back United to win to nil @

15/8

Fulham v Crystal Palace (15:00) - Smarting Alek

Eberechi Eze is the form-man for Palace, scoring six in seven, and with 1.5 key passes per 90 across 2022/23 and 1.8 successful dribbles, he is unquestionably their key attacking threat, especially with Zaha unavailable.

Michael Olise recently reaching double figures for assists this term is also worth noting.

Concerning the hosts there are no prizes for guessing who they will turn to as they strive to beat the Eagles at Craven Cottage for the first time since 2005.

Mitrovic.jpg

The long-awaited return of Aleksandar Mitrovic last week heralded a 12th goal of the season for the burly Serb and no doubt he will be hell-bent on making up for lost time in front of fans who adore him.

Boasting a 0.59-per-90 strike-rate, 'Mitro' has committed to an attempt on goal every 21 minutes this season.

Roll the dice on Mitrovic having 2+ shots on target @

11/10

Liverpool v Aston Villa (15:00) - Revived Reds

Liverpool haven't conceded now for 270 minutes and individually and collectively there are definite signs that a season-long problem is starting to be solved.

A simplistic reading of this leads us to the resurgent form of Virgil Van Dijk because when their commanding Dutchman is flying, the Reds are a very different proposition, more assured and in much better shape.

Certainly seven straight wins backs up this claim while at the other end, 2.75 goals have been scored per 90 since that drab goalless affair at Stamford Bridge at the beginning of April. Mo Salah meanwhile has scored in each of his last nine appearances at Anfield, a club record.

Villa though will be a tougher task to what they've faced in recent weeks, the Midlands giants averaging 1.96 points-per-game since Unai Emery took the reins last November. Only Manchester City and Arsenal can beat that.

The visitors haven't conceded more than a single goal in their last 13 fixtures.

Back the Reds to win by exactly one goal @

5/2

Wolves v Everton (15:00) - Next goal wins

The lack of fight shown by the Toffees last week at home to Manchester City surprised but perhaps at the back of their minds, this was the one to prioritize, facing down a team Sean Dyche will desperately hope has one eye on the sun-loungers.

Four consecutive victories at Molineux have secured Julen Lopetegui's men their top-flight status and it matters that all were to nil given that Dominic Calvert-Lewin's availability is again a doubt, in the hands of physios and fate.

Without their striker, Everton too often lack impetus in the final third and they simply cannot afford to fire another blank as they have done in 38.8% of their contests this term.

Wolves are hardly prolific themselves of course, scoring every 108 minutes across a campaign that has largely underwhelmed, and with so much on the line, we can surely expect goals to be at a premium this weekend.

The brandishing of cards, however, is a different matter. Between them, these pair of persistent offenders have racked up 156 cautions and seen red eight times.

Under 2.5 goals and over 4.5 cards is a shout @

5/2

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal (17:30) - Faint hopes alive

The Forest faithful deserve reduced season ticket prices for 2023/24 if their team stays up, noisily inspiring them to mid-table form at the City Ground while their away record has been consistently abysmal. This here is their final opportunity to make a difference and they won't need asking twice.

Taiwo Awoniyi heads up a short list of contenders who might be that difference, the forward notching four times in his last two outings but all told, Arsenal have to be fancied to keep their title hopes on life support, even if it will be a much closer contest to the 5-0 drubbing dished out at the Emirates.

The Gunners are deprived of Gabriel Martinelli but Leandro Trussard is an able deputy. Only Riyad Mahrez has provided more assists that the former Brighton man since the World Cup.

And as always with the Tricky Trees, consider a low corner-count. Steve Cooper's side are bottom of the league in that regard, and by some distance, while Arsenal have averaged just 3.2 from their last four away games.

Back Trussard to assist and under 9.5 corners @

4/1

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.