Premier League Tipsheet: Seven belting bets for Saturday from 5/6 to 11/5

• Chelsea fearful of Bees hex

• Reality to strike injury-hit Reds

• Eagles threaten upset in North London

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Brentford v Chelsea (15:00) - An emerging hex

The Bees have shipped in 2.6 goals per 90 across their last ten league games and significantly have failed to keep a clean sheet at the Gtech in all-but-one of their fixtures there this term.

They will be relieved then that it's Chelsea they're facing this weekend, a side they last lost to in 2021. Given the disparity in resources between the clubs, three wins and a draw amounts to an emerging hex for the Blues.

And should that hex continue, expect Neal Maupay to be at the heart of proceedings, a striker whose nine goal involvements this season have all come in London.

Maupay tends to be at his most abrasive when taking on the bigger clubs, as demonstrated by his five bookings in 2023/24. All have come against sides currently in the top six, aside from a caution received vs Chelsea in October.

As for the visitors, they are Jeckyll and Hyde from one half to the next at present. They should at least take advantage of Brentford's generosity at the back.

Everton v West Ham (15:00) - Mires and slumps

What is the most persuasive reading of Everton's poor form since Christmas? That they have drawn five of their last six, signifying that goals are hard to come by but to their credit they are difficult to beat? Or that they are winless in nine, heavily suggesting Sean Dyche's side are well and truly in the mire?

Whatever your interpretation is the visitors should be fancied here to get something, revived as they are from putting four past Brentford last week after suffering a similar slump in fortunes across 2024.

Jarrod Bowen is an obvious dangerman, averaging 0.56 goals per 90 and heading to Goodison on the back of a hat-trick. His 63% shot accuracy is superior to Haaland's.

Perhaps a safer bet, however, lies in the over/under market. Only 62 goals have featured in Everton fixtures this season, a league low.

Fulham v Brighton (15:00) - Gross profit

Injury news dominates the conversation around this contest that sees the Cottagers hoping to build on an impressive win at Old Trafford while Brighton's last away had them rack up five at Bramall Lane.

Kaoru Mitoma is out for the season, a huge loss for Roberto De Zerbi's side, but in brighter news for the Seagulls, Evan Ferguson is set to return. A temptation to back the Irish forward is tempered by the possibility he may start on the bench.

In midfield, Billy Gilmour is suspended, as too is Palhinha for the hosts. Fulham meanwhile are sweating on the availability of Willian, a player who has form for lifting his side's performances to another level, particularly at Craven Cottage.

Brighton have Pascal Gross to do that, the Austrian accruing some seriously impressive numbers in 2023/24. His 73 chances created this season includes 10 assists and when his four goals are added, it equates to a direct goal involvement every 149 minutes.

For a player who spends much of his time inhabiting the centre-circle that's almost obscene.

Newcastle v Wolves (15:00) - Goals amidst crisis

Pablo Sarabia has taken on 10 shots for Wolves in his last three outings, four of which were on target, and his willingness to buy a proverbial ticket has reaped dividends in 2023/24. The winger is averaging a goal involvement every 122 minutes.

Both he and Pedro Neto - fit-again and beginning to replicate his blistering early season form - will likely be a constant threat to a Newcastle rearguard that is hemorrhaging goals at an alarming rate of late.

From Boxing Day on, Eddie Howe's men have been breached every 31 minutes.

Winless in four at home, a reaction will be demanded from the Gallowgate faithful and certainly goals can be expected here, with the Magpies the highest scorers outside the top four for all of their problems at the back.

Look out for an intriguing match-up in midfield between Bruno Guimaraes and his Brazilian compatriot Joao Gomes. The Newcastle schemer has picked up nine yellows this term while only Conor Gallagher has committed more fouls than the Wolves protector.

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool (15:00) - The kids are alright

In the words of their manager, Mo Salah, Darwin Nunez and Dominic Szoboszlai are all 'touch and go' for Saturday, while a raft of injuries elsewhere has forced Jurgen Klopp to turn to the kids this past week, to surprisingly good effect.

Two big cup wins reflects extremely well on the immense promise and potential emerging from Melwood.

Focusing on the here and now though, such reliance on youth cannot be sustained and eventually reality will hit. And this prompts memories of Forest's 1-0 win at the City Ground last season, with Taiwo Awoniyi grabbing the decisive goal.

As mentioned in last week's column, 11 of Awoniyi's 16 top-flight strikes have opened the scoring in a game.

One aspect we can always rely on regarding Liverpool however is a high volume of shots. That will hold true whether Salah starts or a kid barely eligible to vote.

In 2023/24 the Reds have averaged 19.2 attempts per 90. In total they've taken on a remarkable 211 more than Forest.

Tottenham v Crystal Palace (15:00) - A new way

Oliver Glasner's mandate to have Palace play more on the front foot immediately took hold against Burnley last weekend, the Eagles posting 15 attempts on goal and 2.40 xG.

Odsonne Edouard posed their greatest threat, especially in the first half.

With Eberechi Eze returning from injury and Spurs wounded from a loss to Wolves that had Postecoglou feel the need to point out that he's not a magician, there are worse times to visit North London. If Eze is good to go, he can ignite the visitors.

Balancing this out, Tottenham benefit from a two-week break while Son Heung-min has a terrific record against Palace, with eight previous goals and a brace of assists. The striker has created 12 big chances in 2023/24.

An interesting detail from Palace's new approach was a sudden increase in corners won, ten all-told last Saturday. Value lies here.

Luton v Aston Villa (17:30) - Advantage Villans

It is now 13 games and counting since the Hatters last failed to score in a Premier League encounter and even if the last three were consolations, it is testimony to the highly effective manner in which they get the ball wide at every opportunity and seek to unsettle centre-backs when out of possession.

Subsequently, only Arsenal have scored more headed goals while only Everton and Manchester City have recorded more pressures in the final third.

In the first instance, Alfie Doughty and Chiedozie Ogbene have been crucial, Ogbene averaging 2.9 successful dribbles per 90. In the second, Cauley Woodrow has come to the fore, winning the ball back 1.7 times per 90 up front.

Villa coped with such tactics well in the Midlands back in October, winning out 3-1. The key point though is that Luton are significantly better at executing their plan now.

Still, Unai Emery's men are back in form, a fact not unrelated to Ollie Watkins finding the net on an increasingly regular basis. It's five in five for the forward.

Furthermore, Villa have a habit of notching early, converting inside 30 minutes on ten occasions in their last eight games.
Back them to gain a quick advantage again. Just don't expect it to remain that way.

Now Read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship Tips here

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