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Newcastle to extend decent home record
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Salah set to score as per
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United to descend further into crisis
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Newcastle v Nottingham Forest (12:30) - One-trick trees
The Nuno Espirito Santo era got off to a false start at the weekend, courtesy of a shocking decision that saw Willy Boly depart 23 minutes in.
Until that controversial moment Forest's game-plan was there for all to see, amassing a woefully low xG as they sought to contain Bournemouth and hit them on the break when possible. This continued out of necessity when a man down.
A similar attempt to play dead and get numbers behind the ball can be expected in the North-East - only this time without their statistically best player of 2023/24 - and you feel Eddie Howe will be okay with this strategy given Newcastle's diminishing form.
For all that injuries and match-worn players have been in factor in the Magpies losing three in four, what most stands out is how much their home and away results differ so greatly in recent months.
The last time they won on the road was back in September, demolishing Sheffield United 8-0. Yet since that period they've played seven at St James Park, winning all of them, six to nil.
A roaring Boxing Day crowd. A home side stung, with a point to prove. A risk-averse opposition.
It's easy to put two and two together.
Bournemouth v Fulham (15:00) - Corner turned
The Cottagers bossed possession at home to Burnley on Saturday, and had some good moments, racking up 19 shots in the process.
Minus their focal point Raul Jimenez, however, along with their creator-in-chief Willian, they largely huffed and puffed. Frankly, they looked plain tired.
A consistently poor return on their travels - conceding 3.3 goals per 90 in their last three alone - also counts against them and though Willian is expected back for this, it's hard to project anything but their away day woes continuing.
That's because the Cherries are in scintillating form right now with Iraola-ball taking full effect.
The increased prolificacy of Dominic Solanke, boasting seven in six, is an obvious starting point but in truth, we could focus on any aspect of Bournemouth's six-game unbeaten streak and find dramatic improvements.
One facet that especially catches the eye is their high corner count of late, with 6.3 per 90 since losing early-November at the Etihad.
Sheff Utd v Luton (15:00) - Goals for Christmas
The manner in which the Hatters responded to being deprived of their captain Tom Lockyer in such awful circumstances is a testament to the togetherness at Kenilworth Road. It was a victory over Newcastle forged on emotion.
Whether that momentum can be maintained in Yorkshire remains to be seen but certainly Luton are a better proposition now to earlier in the season. Rob Edward's men have scored in eight of their last nine outings, picking up 0.8 ppg by doing so.
Their goals for tally equals that of Manchester United's.
The Blades meanwhile will be significantly boosted by earning a point at Villa Park last Friday evening and all round they are a proving to be a more productive unit under Chris Wilder.
Cameron Archer has especially come to the fore, averaging 1.5 shots per 90 and 1.3 successful dribbles, while Oli McBurnie has four goal involvements in his last five outings at Bramall Lane. The counter-balance of course is that he's been sent off twice this season.
Relegation six-pointers have produced a surprisingly high volume of goals in 2023/24 so in the Christmas spirit let's go with that trend continuing.
Burnley v Liverpool (17:30) - Let it Mo
The Clarets impressed at Craven Cottage at the weekend, securing a third win of the campaign, in part due to a ferocious high-press. Crucially too, there was a cohesive protection of a back-four that had previously shipped in 2.1 goals per 90.
If they replicate that performance here they have every chance of troubling a Liverpool side that has notable flaws, not least a propensity to concede first on their travels, doing so in seven of their last eight away fixtures.
The positives, however, far outweigh the negatives.
Trent Alexander-Arnold was again superb against the Gunners leading into this clash while Mo Salah scored because that's what he does as per.
The Egyptian has either converted or assisted every 77 minutes for the Reds this season and it's worth noting too that he's quite partial to Boxing Day games. No other player in the top-flight has been involved in more goals (6) on December 26th.
Man United v Aston Villa (20:00) - Misery on misery
Time was when visiting Old Trafford was akin to standing before a firing squad. Teams could expect to be subjected to wave after wave of attacks. Defeat by a single goal margin felt like a victory.
In the last 10 Boxing Day games held at the famous old stadium, United have averaged 3.2 goals per 90.
This season though, as Erik Ten Hag's disjointed, dispirited side veer from crisis to calamity, it's a very different story. At home they are converting at a rate of a goal every 81 minutes. Forty per cent of their slender total have come from Scott McTominay.
Villa have little to fear going there, barring a back-lash that has been threatened all season but not yet come.
In imperious form, and with just one loss in 14, Unai Emery's high-achievers should be fancied to worsen United's misery, with Olie Watkins fancied to do the damage. An away-day specialist, the striker has eight goal involvements beyond the Midlands this term.
When the damage is done is of interest also. Seven of Villa's last 10 league goals have been converted in the second-half. Seven of United's last 10 concessions have come after the break.