Premier League Tips: Teething problems for Newcastle and Watford in Gameweek 8

Joelinton Newcastle
Joelinton has scored against Spurs in both of his Newcastle seasons

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as the competition welcomes its newest owners...

"Newcastle’s first game under new ownership sees them host a Spurs side coming off an important win in their last game, and the Magpies will be keen to get points on the board before what’s expected to be a busy January transfer window."

Liverpool to preserve unbeaten record

Watford v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30

Liverpool are the only Premier League side unbeaten through their first seven games, and will go top - at least temporarily - if they can win at Watford. Hornets boss Claudio Ranieri is in the dugout for the first time after replacing Xisco, and his new charges may have some optimism after ending Liverpool's long unbeaten run in 2019-20, but Infogol considers the visitors strong favourites to take all three points.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 11.0010/1

Villa to triumph in tight midlands clash

Aston Villa v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Saturday, 15:00

Last season's meetings between Aston Villa and Wolves were close-run affairs, with Anwar El-Ghazi's late penalty at Molineux the only goal across the two games, and Saturday's mid-table battle could be another close one. Wolves are still lower in the table than they perhaps should be, with a 1.04 xGA average harmed by a failure to convert chances at the right end, and Bruno Lage's men could be in line for another frustrating reverse.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.206/1 or 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

Man Utd to get past out-of-sorts Leicester

Leicester City v Manchester United
Saturday, 15:00

Leicester remain in the bottom half after an underwhelming start, having failed to keep out Crystal Palace before the international break despite opening up a 2-0 lead. The Foxes took four points from these opponents last season, but the visitors will be buoyed by the potential return from injury of Marcus Rashford as they attempt to extend an unbeaten away league run which stretches back to January 2020.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Man City to remain tough to contain at home

Manchester City v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00

Manchester City have yet to concede in their home league games this season, averaging just 0.23 xGA per match, and Infogol doesn't expect that to change against a Burnley side whose two goals away at Leicester last time out came from just 0.54 xGF. City have won their last eight home and away meetings with the Clarets in all competitions, including four successive 5-0 wins at the Etihad, and it's hard to see anything other than a comfortable home win.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 7.006/1

Norwich's barren run to continue

Norwich City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 15:00

Norwich finally got a point on the board before the international break, keeping Burnley at bay in a mostly uneventful goalless draw, but Infogol doesn't expect a return to Carrow Road to improve their fortunes. Brighton's last game was also goalless, but Graham Potter's side are unbeaten on the road this term, and an average of just 1.09 xGA per game will give them the belief they can claim all three points.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2

potter brighton.jpg

Leeds to keep Southampton waiting for first win

Southampton v Leeds United
Saturday, 15:00

Leeds put in a particularly impressive attacking performance to win at St Mary's last season, and will feel they can repeat the trick against one of only four sides below them in the table. Marcelo Bielsa's side looked more like themselves in a dominant win over Watford last time out, and are up against opponents still looking for a first win of the season. Ralph Hasenhüttl will be desperate to get that monkey off his side's back sooner rather than later, but Infogol gives the away side a slight edge.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 12.0011/1

Chelsea to come out on top in challenging derby

Brentford v Chelsea
Saturday, 17:30

A west London derby against Chelsea is one of the games a lot of Brentford fans will have kept an eye out for when the fixture list was announced, and it's testament to the hosts' impressive form that they can move within a point of their opponents with a win. The visitors are still the favourites according to Infogol's model, though, having impressed going forward against Southampton last time out, with the Blues' attacking riches potentially enough to eke out a win.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 8.007/1

Moyes to suffer narrow defeat at former stomping ground

Everton v West Ham United
Sunday, 14:00

Everton and West Ham traded single-goal wins last term, with Tomáš Šoucek's late winner decisive at Goodison Park, but the Toffees' form under Rafa Benitez makes them narrow favourites this time around based on Infogol's model. The hosts are averaging 2.03 xGF at home this term, which may well be enough for them to deny opponents who are putting up similar attacking numbers on the road.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1

Newcastle's new era to begin with defeat

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, 16:30

Newcastle's first game under new ownership sees them host a Spurs side coming off an important win in their last game, and the Magpies will be keen to get points on the board before what's expected to be a busy January transfer window. The 3.86 xGF generated by Newcastle in the corresponding game last season was their highest of the campaign, but it's almost as many as they've put up in three home games combined this term, and the latter statistic explains why Infogol backs the visitors.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Vieira to leave empty-handed on Arsenal return

Arsenal v Crystal Palaca
Monday, 20:00

Patrick Vieira makes his first trip to the Emirates Stadium as a visiting Premier League manager, and he does so in the knowledge that a win would take his Crystal Palace side above the Gunners. However, both of Palace's defeats this term have come away from Selhurst Park, while Mikel Arteta's side have averaged 2.32 xGF across their last two home wins, and this derby is expected to go the way of the hosts.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2

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