Saturday Tipsheet: Six of the best bets for the Premier League and FA Cup

Stephen Tudor
16 March 2023
3.30 min read

Emery will want another bright start for the Villans

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Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found this weekend as the Premier League and FA Cup collide...

Bees to carry on buzzing
Kane set to bully Saints again
Chelsea will find a way vs Everton

Aston Villa v Bournemouth (15:00) - On the mend

The Cherries may have a poor away record but the Midlands has proven to be a happy hunting ground this term, their only two wins coming at Forest and Wolves.

Furthermore, Gary O'Neil's side are improving, as evidenced in dramatic fashion last week in beating Liverpool, a statement victory preceded by a fine - but ultimately, heart-breaking -showing at the Emirates.

The effective pushing up of Phillip Billing into a more advanced role is something to note, as too the increasing influence of Dango Ouattara who offers a genuine threat.

As for Villa, what stands out from their recent upturn in form is a capacity to score early, converting five of their last eight before or around the half hour mark.

Take advantage of our completely free £2 bet builder offer and take a punt on the following..

Back Ouattara to score or assist, yes to BTTS, and yes to a goal scored in each half @

5/1

Brentford v Leicester (15:00) - Foxes stung

The Foxes have been an odd team on their travels this season, banging in four past Wolves and Villa but for the most part flailing, too easily undone and wasteful of the scant chances they've created.

Currently on a four game losing streak, the relegation candidates have scored just once in their last 369 minutes of league action.

This is despite the best efforts of James Maddison who has carved out 2.3 chances per 90 but while the 26-year-old is always capable of upending the odds surely Brentford have to be fancied here to extend on an unbeaten home record that dates back to mid-September.

Whatever the margin of their victory it's fair to expect a few goals too. Games featuring Leicester this term have produced an average of 3.1.

Go for over 1.5 goals for the Bees @

Evens

Southampton v Tottenham (15:00) - Three tormentors

Harry Kane boasts a fine record against most top-flight sides but he especially enjoys coming up against the Saints. Nineteen goal involvements in 19 meetings is tantamount to bullying.

Harry Kane.jpg Son Heung-min also clearly loves this fixture, scoring more goals against Southampton than any other Premier League side and intriguing the same can be said of Richarlison though a tendency to start away games on the bench limits the Brazilian's chances of ending his goal drought at St Marys.

These three will be rubbing their hands together on the journey down even if the hosts have tightened up at the back of late, keeping two clean sheets in four under Ruben Selles.

Problems however persist at the other end with only James Ward-Prowse and Carlos Alcarez finding the net in Southampton's last 12 outings.

Back Kane to have 4 or more shots @

8/11

Wolves v Leeds (15:00) - A testy test

Over half of the league games played at Molineux this season have ended under 1.5 goals while Leeds have lost three of their last four away fixtures 1-0.

Factor in too that Leeds seem utterly incapable of gelling together a front-three from any number of promising options, while Wolves have a meagre chance conversion rate of 5.3% - the second worst in the league - and everything points to a low-scoring relegation 'six-pointer'.

With so much on the line don't rule out tempers flaring as well. These sides have racked up a hefty 107 yellow cards between them and no team has seen red more often than Wolves this term.

Referee Michael Salisbury has dished out 4.25 cautions per game in 2022/23.

Back under 2.5 goals and over 4.5 cards @

9/5

Chelsea v Everton (17:30) - Blue blockade

Alex Keble believes the Toffees can frustrate a Chelsea side who appear to have turned a significant corner in March, and this may well come to pass. Certainly we can expect a low, well-organized block to be deployed throughout, with Everton content to cede much of the ball. In Sean Dyche's three away games to date his team have averaged just 36.9% of the possession.

How successful this strategy is depends on the extent Chelsea have been revived from three wins in three. Up front Kai Havertz poses the biggest danger, scoring in consecutive outings while the passing of Fernandes and Kovacic will be key.

Should the hosts find a way through then conceivably it's game over. Everton have accrued a pitiful five points from losing positions all season and for what it's worth last won at the Bridge in the league way, way back in 1994.

Back Havertz to have one or more shots on target in each half @

12/5

Man City v Burnley (17:45) - High-achievers

Naturally, the return of club legend Vincent Kompany will dominate the narrative beforehand and the Belgian deserves every pre-match utterance of praise having completely transformed the Clarets into an all-conquering, high-pressing machine this term.

Wednesday night's 3-1 win at Hull extends Burnley's unbeaten streak to 17 in the league, a run that includes 11 clean sheets, and all season long they have accrued 2.2 points-per-game, scoring two goals per 90 into the bargain. Rarely has a title been secured with such entitlement.

City too of course have plenty of reasons to be cheerful, not least after blasting seven past RB Leipzig mid-week, with Erling Haaland confounding logic by bagging five of them. As good as Burnley's back-line is they don't typically encounter a 6ft 5 goal-scoring phenomenon who demolishes records week-on-week.

Inevitably, from two high-achievers, a lofty corner count can be expected (5.8 this term per 90 for Burnley, 6.5 for City) so that's one avenue to explore, and though the hosts should be fancied to prevail don't be surprised if brilliant Burnley cause them all manner of problems.

Back Haaland to score and BTTS @

15/8

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