Premier League Tips on Sunday: Naughty Saint at 16/5

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Southampton vs Liverpool

• Sunday 14:00, Sky Sports

Southampton are cut adrift at the foot of the table with four points from 11 games and of the 21 goals they have conceded, a third have come from set pieces. According to the underlying data, it is not unjust either as Russell Martin's men have shipped an xGA of 7.28 from dead balls.

So, I was thinking, let's pile into the Liverpool's centre backs to score but Manchester United's Matthijs de Ligt is the only centre back to score against the Saints in the Premier League this season.

Combine that with the fact Liverpool have not been prolific set pieces and it is enough to put me off backing both Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate at skinny prices to score on the South Coast.

It does looks like it could be another long afternoon for Southampton though who are without first choice keeper Aaron Ramsdale.

Replacement Alex McCarthyhas started two games in goal and conceded two and in 2022/23 when Southampton were last in the top flight, he conceded 17 goals in six games as his side only took one point from eight on offer.

So, things could get ugly for the hosts and considering they already have the second poorest disciplinary record in the top flight with a tally of 37 yellows and two reds, the card market is where I am heading.

Should he start, Adam Lallana's price to be booked is worth a look as he takes on his former employers.

Despite being in the Autumn of his career, the midfielder has become an integral part of this struggling Saints side starting the last three games. His career was built on slick technical ability but since moving back to the south coast he is showing a different side to his game.

Lallana is averaging move fouls (0.9) then tackles (0.7) per game and has three cards to his name in just 280 minutes of Premier League action. The only issue is whether he plays.

One player who is almost certain to start is Taylor Harwood-Bellis which is why he is the bet to be booked.

The England international has picked up four cards this term and should he continue on the right side of a back three, he will be tasked with containing both Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz so should return from international duty with a bump.

Referee Samuel Barrott should be pretty obliging as well dishing out no fewer than four cards in 10 Premier League games.

Ipswich vs Manchester United

• Sunday 16:30, Sky Sports

The international break came at the worst possible time for Ipswich.

In their last match they won their first Premier League game beating Tottenham 2-1 in North London and they were a whopping price to do so.

The schedule was not kind to the Tractor Boys, pitting them against Liverpool (2-0) and Manchester City (4-1) in their first two games but since then they have tentatively grown into the season, drawing half of the next 10 games.

Liam Delap has played a major part in their points haul. The frontman has netted six times this term, half of his side's total, and looks a cracking price to add to that tally on Sunday.

Although he came through the ranks at Derby, Ipswich signed him from Manchester City so the sense of occasion on Sunday won't be lost on Delap.

He's netted against Aston Villa (twice), Tottenham, Brentford, West Ham and Fulham so will fancy his chances against a Manchester United side in transition.

It is Ruben Amorim's first game in charge of the club and if Erik ten Hag's tenure taught us anything it is that this group of players is tough to get a tune out of straight away. Ten Hag lost his first two games in the hot seat, the first a 2-1 defeat against Brighton and the second a 4-0 drubbing at Brentford.

Amorim inherits a side in 13th with as many league losses (4) to their name this season as wins.

So, a few teething issues could be expected from the visitors, I just hope Delap can punish them.

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