Premier League Top Four Race: Newcastle odds-against but best placed for Champions League

• Man Utd, Newcastle look well placed for top four finish

• Will anything actually change at Spurs under Stellini?

• Can Brighton at 4/1 surpise us all?

Looking at the end of season picture

The end of the March international break officially the start of the run-in, and yet with between 10 and 13 league matches left there is still almost a third of the season remaining.

We tend to place more emphasis on the first 10 or 11 matches, in terms of the narrative of a club's season, than the run-in, which is so often presumed to simply follow the trajectory of what went before.

But that is rarely the case, and to provide some context for how much things can change, after the first 10 or 11 of the 2022/23 season Tottenham Hotspur were seen as title contenders, Chelsea were fourth, and Leicester City were rock bottom with five points.

So a lot can change over the coming weeks, which is why it would be naïve to assume that the top four race will stay roughly aligned with how things look now. Even Brighton, down at 4/1, can steal a charge...

Man Utd (1/7) won't drop out

Erik ten Hag might have worried about his team's place in the top four following the 7-0 defeat to Liverpool but results since then have stabilised, and frankly Manchester United are simply too strong to be muscled out of the top four.

With Casemiro due back soon and Christian Eriksen expected to return before the end of the season, they should have a strong finish.

Unlike all of the clubs around them, United have no real weaknesses or concerns regarding morale or direction, which is a significant plus as they look to press home their considerable advantage over Tottenham and Liverpool in particular.

They are priced at 1/7 with good reason and, along with Manchester City and Arsenal, seem certain to leave just a single Champions League place for the chasing pack.

Newcastle United (11/10) likely to hold fourth

Until recently it looked as though Newcastle were gradually regressing to the mean and set to miss out on the top four, yet Eddie Howe has managed to rediscover some form with back-to-back wins courtesy of an injection of quality in the final third.

The main reason to back Newcastle is the re-emergence of Alexander Isak and Allan Saint-Maximin.

Isak is exactly the kind of player Newcastle have needed all season.

His capacity to sneak into spaces between the line and slalom out to the wings, using his dribbling and false-nine creativity to bring Newcastle's narrow wingers into play, has turned Howe's transition-focused team into one that is far more capable of converting long periods of possession into chances.

That is crucial at a juncture when opponents were beginning to drop deep, recognising and respecting Newcastle's strength.

Saint-Maximin can be a liability defensively, as in the recent defeats to Man Utd and Liverpool, but what he offers in the final third is a counter-balance to Miguel Almiron, whose form has inevitably declined.

Together, these two attackers give Newcastle a boost at exactly the right time to keep them ahead of Liverpool and Tottenham.

Liverpool (15/8) needed Bajcetic to make it

Newcastle is the safe bet, but there are reasons to think Liverpool could go on a surging run into the top four now that their Champions League run is over.

Jurgen Klopp certainly has the strongest squad of those chasing fourth and, with big signings needed in the summer, Liverpool will be highly motivated - and well-placed to tap back into the high-energy performances we saw prior to the Bournemouth defeat.

The upturn in confidence and attacking intent came thanks to the growing relationship between Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, and Darwin Nunez.

However, they play Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their next three matches and have just lost Stefan Bajcetic for the season.

His defensive clout in the middle of the park had given Klopp the workmanlike midfield he needed to put together a string of victories to usurp Newcastle.

Without Bajcetic, Liverpool do not have a realistic chance of making fourth.

Tottenham (23/10) too dull to make it

The end of the Antonio Conte era isn't really the end of the Antonio Conte era.

Cristian Stellini has been kept on as caretaker manager for the rest of the season, presumably as a reward for winning three of his five matches in temporary charge when Conte was unwell.

Although, you could argue he simply carried out the instructions he was given for these games - and, as a long-time assistant to Conte, will carry on with the same style of football that has dragged the club down.

The players will be glad to see the back of Conte, but how much will really change?

What the Italian perceived as selfishness was in reality players demotivated by a negative style of football that sunk the players into pale imitations of themselves, and so the continuation of this style under Stellini is not going to yield any kind of new-manager bounce.

Spurs are currently fourth but have played two more games than their rivals, putting them at an immediate disadvantage that Stellini - a hangover from a miserable time - is not going to be able to overturn.

Brighton (4/1) have a one-time shot

Tottenham's decision to give Stellini the job, plus Newcastle's inexperience and Liverpool's erratic nature, gives a glimmer of hope to Brighton fans that Roberto de Zerbi can put together an incredible sequence of victories to take the club into the Champions League.

Having played three matches fewer than Tottenham means fourth is, remarkably, in Brighton's hands... but there is a downside to this, too.

Brighton still have 13 matches to go. That's a third of a whole season, so we cannot really say they are in the hunt just yet.

Nevertheless De Zerbi's tactical acumen has built on the patient possession of Graham Potter with sudden tempo changes that see Brighton arrive at speed in the final third, hence their sudden flurry of goals after having under-performed against their xG for so long.

Sadly, the brilliant performances of Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March seem a little too good to sustain, and when their form drops off it is not immediately clear who would pick up the slack.

Then again, Brighton's incredible trick of regeneration this season continues to shock everyone, so it would be pretty foolish to write them off. It is worth a bet at 4/1, but ultimately Brighton will most likely fall just short.