Premier League Tips: Liverpool to thrash Leeds in 56/1 acca

• Newcastle can end Villa's winning run

• Maddison key to Leicester revival

• Forest's new formation can hurt Man Utd

Battle on the wings may halt Villa run

Aston Villa v Newcastle United
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Both Newcastle United and Aston Villa have won their last four Premier League matches and with a wide variety of tactical methods, too, but Eddie Howe's team should be considered favourites purely because their most lethal form of attack - fast transitions down the wings - is where Villa have looked weakest under Unai Emery.

Villa's 4-2-3-1 changes a lot depending on the opponents, but generally speaking their two wingers are stationed high up the pitch during Villa's build-up phase, which makes them vulnerable when the ball is turned over.

It is noteworthy that Villa conceded 10 goals in a three-game run earlier this year against Leicester City, Arsenal, and Manchester City, all of whom found their wingers as quickly as possible to isolate the Villa full-backs.

What's more, Newcastle are likely to start with Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak together up front, and these two pressed superbly in the second half against Brentford last weekend.

Tasked with sitting on top of Douglas Luiz and John McGinn, they can limit Villa in the same way that Nottingham Forest did prior to Jonjoe Shelvey's clumsy error.

Maddison the new Grealish under Smith

Man City v Leicester City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Dean Smith is known for an expansive possession game, but in a relegation battle he is more likely to return to the ultra-defensive football that got Aston Villa over the line in 2019/20, when Smith and John Terry devised a simple counter-attacking strategy that saw Villa win eight points from the final four matches, including a 1-0 win at home to Arsenal.

Surely that's the right way to face Manchester City at the Etihad, even if long-term Smith wants to be more expressive.

Under Brendan Rodgers, Leicester City conceded more shots from high turnovers (50) than any other Premier League club this season, while City's recent opponents have been torn apart when pushing up. Smith will sit back, then, and hope to inspire his players to repeat the quick transitions of bygone years.

The most important player is James Maddison, who has scored in each of his last two visits to the Etihad, and who has been compared to Jack Grealish throughout his career.

An important part of Smith's strategy in his battle against relegation with Villa was getting the ball to Grealish on the left as often as possible.

Look out for Leicester absorbing pressure before countering quickly through Maddison, a strategy that might look good for a while - but probably won't be enough to take a point in the end.

Cooper's 3-4-2-1 gives Forest hope

Nottingham Forest v Man Utd
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Nottingham Forest used last weekend's 2-0 defeat to Aston Villa to trial a new formation that gives them a glimmer of hope they can end this nine-game winless run and avoid relegation.

Steve Cooper deployed a 3-4-2-1, reverting to three at the back for the first time since October, with two number tens sitting narrowly to stop Villa from building through the middle.

The system also gave wing-backs Neco Williams and Harry Toffolo additional defensive cover behind them, in turn stopping Forest from being hit as aggressively down the flanks as they have been in recent matches.

Put together, the use of a box-shaped midfield can - in theory - block Casemiro from finding Bruno Fernandes while giving Forest a flat back five to deny space for Antony and Anthony Martial.

It's not as easy as that, of course, although there are hallmarks here of Forest's crucial 1-0 win over Liverpool.

United were made to look good by some woeful tactical decisions by Sean Dyche in the win over Everton, and without Marcus Rashford they are in danger of looking a lot more blunt at the City Ground. The score should be low, even if Forest cannot ultimately get the points they need.

Leeds' hard-pressing to release Liverpool's dribblers

Leeds v Liverpool
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Crystal Palace's capacity to complete 33 dribbles against Leeds United, the most by any Premier League team on record, says as much about Javi Gracia's team as it does Roy Hodgson's.

Despite generally normalising Leeds and making them a more defence-minded team they remain prone to rushing out and pressing manically, often going man-for-man and failing to appreciate the positional play that Gracia wishes to install.

Tellingly, Leeds are top of the charts for successful take-ons against them (346) and take-ons that lead to a shot attempt (55), while they are also the second most dispossessed team (372).

They remain erratic and certainly highly vulnerable to any team that wishes to run directly at them or, by pressing high, play them at their own game, hence their 4-1 defeat to Arsenal at the start of April.

Liverpool can run riot, then, with Darwin Nunez and Mohamed Salah likely to get numerous opportunities to run at the Leeds back line.

Jurgen Klopp's side might be winless in four but in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal their 4.43 xG was higher than in the 7-0 win over Man Utd earlier in the season. Their forward line is firing, which is dreadful news for Leeds supporters.