Premier League Tips: Liverpool and Chelsea to beat their former managers in gameweek 14

Romelu Lukaku Chelsea
Chelsea may be able to recall Romelu Lukaku to the starting XI this week

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as Claudio Ranieri and Rafa Benitez face their former clubs...

"The Hornets have been hit and miss at home this season, where they are averaging 1.98 xGA per game, and the return of Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku ought to worry the home side as Chelsea aim to recover from a disappointing draw with Man Utd."

Newcastle to finally claim win

Newcastle United v Norwich City
Tuesday, 19:30

Newcastle's winless streak went up to 13 on Saturday, though manager Eddie Howe wasn't happy about his team being denied a penalty when Callum Wilson went down in the Arsenal area. Another failure to win would be a real issue for Howe, given the opposition, but Norwich's average of just 0.58 xGF per game away from home will give the hosts optimism about finally getting a win on the board.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2 or 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Leeds narrow favourites in Palace battle

Leeds United v Crystal Palace
Tuesday, 20:15

While Leeds rode their luck to claim a point at Brighton on Saturday, they have shown some improvement of late and continue to welcome back players from injury. Crystal Palace will be no pushovers, but the home side will remember their 2-0 victory over the same opponents last season and feel they can deal Patrick Vieira's side a further blow after the Eagles' defeat to Aston Villa over the weekend.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? No
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.206/1 or 2-1 @ 11.5021/2

Southampton and Leicester to be a close-run thing

Southampton v Leicester City
Wednesday, 19:30

Neither Leicester nor Southampton looked particularly steady at the back over the weekend, though that didn't matter for the Foxes as they still got the better of Watford despite allowing 3.05 xGA. The home side will need a quick recovery after letting Liverpool overrun them at Anfield, and Infogol anticipates a close contest after the last three league meetings between these sides brought one win each and one draw.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.4013/2

Chelsea to rebound against former boss Ranieri

Watford v Chelsea
Wednesday, 19:30

Claudio Ranieri comes up against one of his former clubs for a second time in a week, and will hope for a better result than the 4-2 defeat his Watford side suffered at Leicester. The Hornets have been hit and miss at home this season, where they are averaging 1.98 xGA per game, and the return of Timo Werner and Romelu Lukaku ought to worry the home side as Chelsea aim to recover from a disappointing draw with Man Utd.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 10.009/1

West Ham to avoid third straight league loss

West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion
Wednesday, 19:30

West Ham have looked a little blunt in their last two league games, averaging just 0.35xGF per game against Wolves and Manchester City, and will hope a return to the London Stadium prompts a change in fortunes. Last season's December meeting saw the two sides share four goals between them, but Infogol anticipates a lower scoring affair this time with Brighton's 1.23 xGF per game representing the second-worst return in the top half.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2

lanzini-west-ham.jpg

Wolves to pip well-rested Burnley

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Burnley
Wednesday, 19:30

The postponement of Burnley's game against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday means the Clarets have had more of a rest than their midweek opponents, who laboured to a goalless draw at Norwich 24 hours earlier. Last season's corresponding game brought a surprise 4-0 win for the Clarets at Molineux, but Infogol backs the home side this time as they attempt to shake off the loss of some key men to injury.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.4013/2 or 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

City to hand Gerrard his first Villa defeat

Aston Villa v Manchester City
Wednesday, 20:15

Steven Gerrard won't care too much about the underwhelming numbers across his first two Aston Villa games, having delivered six points and a foundation on which to build. Things look set to be tougher against Manchester City, though, with Pep Guardiola's side winning their last five games in all competitions with a terror-inducing average of 2.64 xGF per game.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 10.5019/2

Liverpool to leave former boss Benitez in big trouble

Everton v Liverpool
Wednesday, 20:15

As Rafa Benitez attempts to play host to Liverpool, he may well be reminded of former Toffees manager Marco Silva losing his job in December 2019 after a heavy defeat in a Merseyside Derby. Benitez's side are in dreadful form right now, winless in two months, and Infogol's model doesn't see that changing against a Liverpool side who have worried much stronger opponents this term.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Spurs to pip Brentford in London derby

Tottenham Hotspur v Brentford
Thursday, 19:30

Spurs were denied an opportunity to respond to last week's defeat in Slovenia when their game on Sunday was postponed, but Antonio Conte's side now have an opportunity to set things right in front of their own fans. Opponents Brentford found a much-needed victory on Sunday, but Infogol believes the north London hosts will still get the better of the west London visitors on Thursday.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Man Utd to pip Arsenal after confirming new manager

Manchester United v Arsenal
Thursday, 20:15

Manchester United have confirmed the appointment of Ralf Rangnick as interim manager, though at the time of writing it is unclear whether he will be in the dugout for the visit of Arsenal. Regardless, United showed some improvement in their Champions League win at Villarreal and kept results momentum going despite conceding some big chances to Chelsea, and they have a narrow edge against an Arsenal side averaging just 0.67 xGF on the road.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

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