Premier League Tips: Jones Knows how to profit from cards on midweek games

• Cards averages decrease in midweek games

• Bookmakers lines are high due to record averages

• Back 13/53.60 shot with under cards in mind

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Play your cards right with unders theory

Me and fast bowlers have got lots in common in that we spend most of our lives looking for edges.

Being ahead of the bookmakers prices using such edges really is the backbone of any successful tipster or serious punter. Finding them is achievable but the hard part is devising a plan to make them sustainable and profitable - that comes with experience and is certainly I'm still learning to master. I'm nowhere near ruthless enough with my staking and faith in that edge when I've found an angle.

One potential edge on my radar is midweek domestic matches and the cards lines.

There is some evidence developing that midweek evening kick-offs aren't producing the same number of cards as the overall season average and is providing punting opportunities.

Last season, Premier League games played on a Tuesday-Thursday averaged 3.9 cards per match which was lower than the overall average of 4.4 across the season.

That 0.5 of a card difference may not seem a lot but can make a huge difference to fine margin pricing and outcomes of card markets.

With the help of Opta, I also ran some numbers on cards in the EFL from the start of last season comparing games played on a Tuesday-Thursday and Friday-Monday.

In each league it showed a decrease in the average in terms of card output for midweek games against weekend games. The Championship was a clear example of this where weekend games go from averaging 4.3 cards per game to just 3.7 in midweek.

League One went from 4.4 to 4.0 and League Two 4.3 to 4.1.

All very compelling evidence for a decrease in cards averages in midweek.

How do we profit from a lack of cards?

Cards lines are being pushed higher than ever before by bookmakers as we've seen a huge increase in yellow and reds being dished out over the past two seasons.

The 23/24 season saw 4.4 cards awarded per match - the highest on record in the Premier League. And the continued positive trends on cards in matches has gone to another level this season.

We're currently working at a 5.02 ratio of cards per match in the Premier League. An extraordinary figure of 19 matches have already seen over 8.5 cards land for punters this season, including games like Bournemouth vs Chelsea (14 cards) and Aston Villa vs Bournemouth (13 cards). It's record levels of cards that is of no doubt.

However, with huge spikes in a certain trend and shortening of odds, comes opportunities for punters like me who don't mind swimming against the tide and backing the under lines when the time is right, something which is offered by Betfair on their cards markets.

And this midweek has drawn me in based on those numbers telling me that card averages drop during games scheduled at these times.

So, my instincts have taken me to the games where the cards line expectancy is bordering on the over 4.5 line which could end up being a very hard figure to hit in the midweek environment of lower cards counts.

Newcastle v Liverpool to go under 4.5 cards is available at 23/20 on the Betfair Sportsbook and that has to play a leading role in punting plans for midweek. I'm happy to double that up with Southampton and Chelsea to fall under the 4.5 line, too, with the double paying 13/53.60.

That looks a generous price where the midweek factor doesn't look to have been factored into the thinking behind the pricing. It's an edge to exploit. Howzat?

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