Premier League Key Battles: Everton to beat Man Utd in 63/1 Acca

De Zerbi intensity to push Spurs back

Brighton v Tottenham
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Not too much changed in Roberto de Zerbi's first match as Brighton manager. He has the same principles as Graham Potter, only bringing a greater intensity and arguably wanting even more of the ball. Consequently he will continue to look to play on the front foot on Saturday, pushing Tottenham Hotspur into a cowered position much as Arsenal did last weekend.

This gives the hosts a very good chance of causing an upset. Ivan Perisic is less comfortable on the right side but will be deputising for the suspended Emerson Royal, making it more likely the in-form Leandro Trossard can find space on that side, but more importantly the injury to Dejan Kulusevski has seen Spurs get pinned back. Without him linking the lines, Spurs can't get out.

However, Brighton were very open at Anfield with a highly attacking two-man midfield partnership of Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo, which let Liverpool into the game. Consequently Harry Kane may fairly easily find space to drop into in the transition, turning to release Heung-Min Son and Richarlison. There should be lots of goals.

Back over 3.5 goals at 3.39/4

Martinelli to target TAA in big test for Arteta

Arsenal v Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Arsenal have not faced a possession-based side this season, meaning this is a major test of their new central defensive partnership and the strength of their off-the-ball shape; it is possible that, when Liverpool have the ball, the Granit Xhaka and Thomas Partey partnership will be too flat-footed to cope with how Harvey Elliot passes into the Liverpool front line.

However, the poor form of Jurgen Klopp's team should allow Arsenal to take control for the most part. Liverpool's pressing intensity has diminished considerably, allowing the hosts to dominate the ball and play in their natural way, plus there is a very big problem developing on Liverpool's right that Arsenal will undoubtedly target.

Trent Alexander-Arnold was directly at fault for the first two Brighton goals last weekend and he will be put under a lot of pressure on Sunday by Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus - statistically the two best dribblers in the competition this season. Without adequate midfield support, Alexander-Arnold will not be able to cope with how these two interact, leading to another convincing win for Mikel Arteta.

Back Arsenal to win at 2.56/4

Ultra-defensive Everton to break United

Everton v Man Utd
Sunday, 19:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Everton have quietly been making progress recently as Frank Lampard settles into a more reactive and defensive setup but shifts away from a back three. The focus remains on individualism in the wide areas, with counter-attacks funnelled through Demarai Gray, Dwight McNeil, and Anthony Gordon; this is a very direct, dribbling team with a basic defensive setup.

That is precisely the system that will cause Manchester United problems. Erik ten Hag's long-term strategy is to introduce the swirling possession football we saw at Ajax, where the old Dutch principles were infused with greater verticality in the movement of the ball from back to front, and therefore United will happily take up the challenge of breaking down a deep Everton block. But there are too many flaws in Ten Hag's system for it to work.

His front line requires space to sprint into, which Everton won't provide, while his insistence on partnering Scott McTominay with Christian Eriksen is proving predictably naïve. The Everton wingers will easily gallop through these two on the counter and should, in front of a buoyant Goodison Park crowd, pull off a smash-and-grab result.

Back Everton to win at 3.711/4

Coutinho & Ramsey to dominate midfield

Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Steve Cooper's team are playing like a bunch of players who have never met each other before - which is pretty much the case after they made 23 summer signings. His adventurous football relies on high pressing and a fanned-out shape, which takes a long time to coach and is inevitably ill-suited to a new team still learning how to operate together.

In the 4-0 defeat to Leicester City they were hopeless, spreading out in a 4-2-4 shape that left Lewis O'Brien and Cheikhou Kouyate completely exposed. Cooper will surely move back to a 3-4-1-2, yet this is no more secure, and the two-man midfield will again be shown to be woefully decompressed as Aston Villa fly forward.

Steven Gerrard's diamond 4-4-2 is all about cramming central midfield with bodies as John McGinn, Jacob Ramsey, and Philippe Coutinho all look to dribble through the lines and release the front two. They could not ask for better opponents to face, or a better opportunity to win their first away game of the season.

Back Villa to win at 2.111/10