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Premier League Tips: Chelsea and Man City to pull clear in gameweek 21

Tom Victor
31 December 2021
4 min read

Chelsea will hope they can overcome a recent defensive crisis

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Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as the top four face off...

"Chelsea and Liverpool will play their final game before some of their players jet off to the Africa Cup of Nations, and the Blues' goalkeeper Édouard Mendy will be busy against visiting forwards Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané."

Arsenal's winning run to end

Arsenal v Manchester City
Saturday, 12:30

Arsenal have been unstoppable of late, averaging 2.77 xGF across their last four league games, but they're up against a team with an even higher average in City. Pep Guardiola's side weren't at their attacking best against Brentford, but they got the job done to move eight points clear at the top and Infogol's model doesn't expect an impressive Gunners team to stop the runaway train.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Leicester to build after Liverpool win

Leicester City v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00

Leicester rode their luck at times to beat Liverpool, keeping a clean sheet despite allowing 2.50 xGA, but their makeshift defence can expect to find itself under less pressure against a Norwich side averaging just 0.82 xGF on their travels. Dean Smith's side haven't won in more than a month, though they did at least score in the reverse fixture, and the hosts should have the upper hand here.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Spurs to prolong unbeaten run

Watford v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 15:00

Watford's defensive display against West Ham United will worry Claudio Ranieri, and the Italian will be up against it as he welcomes compatriot Antonio Conte and an in-form Spurs team to Vicarage Road. The visitors can expect to add to their squad during the January window, but should still have more than enough to see off opponents averaging a massive 2.13 xGA on home soil.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

West Ham to hold narrow edge at Palace

Crystal Palace v West Ham United
Saturday, 17:30

The last meeting between these sides ended all-square, and there hasn't been more than one goal separating the London rivals in any of the last nine meetings. Two of the goalscorers in the reverse fixture were missing in midweek, West Ham's Pablo Fornals and Palace's Conor Gallagher, and Infogol anticipates a close contest regardless of the personnel involved, with the Hammers narrow favourites.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-1 @ 7.4013/2 or 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Brentford to earn first win in four

Brentford v Aston Villa
Sunday, 14:00

Brentford have solidified defensively in recent weeks but have lost their scoring touch, suffering a Carabao Cup elimination and two league defeats without scoring. Infogol can see a change of fortunes against Aston Villa, though, with the visitors missing players and Thomas Frank's side boasting a home xGA average of 1.08 which is among the best in the entire top flight.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 17.50 or 1-1 @ 7.006/1

Brighton to make it three without defeat

Everton v Brighton & Hove Albion
Sunday, 14:00

Brighton's late equaliser at Chelsea in midweek was no less than they deserved, and Graham Potter's side can cling on to a top half spot as they kick off the year with a trip to Goodison Park. Hosts Everton may be a bit rusty, having not played since December 16, and Infogol's model backs the away side to earn their first victory over the Toffees since back in October 2019.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 15.50

Leeds to bounce back after heavy defeats

Leeds United v Burnley
Sunday, 14:00

Leeds will hope they are able to welcome players back after conceding 11 goals in their last two league outings, and the arrival of a similarly out-of-practice Burnley to Elland Road will make for an intriguing clash. Marcelo Bielsa's side are unbeaten against the Clarets in three Premier League outings, winning both of last season's meetings, and three is expected to become four according to Infogol's model.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Southampton to make it four unbeaten

Southampton v Newcastle United
Sunday, 14:00

Southampton's five points from their last three games betray some worrying underlying numbers, but Newcastle are one of the few teams with a higher xGA average than the 1.59 posted by Ralph Hasenhüttl's men. The visitors showed signs of improvement in their home draw with Manchester United, but worries over key personnel - coupled with a horrific away record - means this one is Saints' to lose.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Chelsea to triumph in clash of titans

Chelsea v Liverpool
Sunday, 16:30

Chelsea and Liverpool will play their final game before some of their players jet off to the Africa Cup of Nations, and the Blues' goalkeeper Édouard Mendy will be busy against visiting forwards Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané. Infogol backs the London side to prevail, though, with a home average of 2.25 xGF per game giving them the upper hand against opponents keen to bounce back from a frustrating midweek defeat.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 13.0012/1

United to pip Wolves at Old Trafford

Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Monday, 20:00

Man Utd are unbeaten in their last seven against Wolves, with Monday's opponents drawing a blank in five of those games, but the hosts haven't been wholly convincing during Ralf Rangnick's tenure. Bruno Lage's visitors have seen their numbers hit by injury, and illness, prompting a postponement of their last game, and Infogol's model backs the hosts to complete a league double after surviving an onslaught at Molineux in the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

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