Premier League Tips: Back 42/1 acca with Newcastle to beat Arsenal

• Allardyce to go ultra-defensive

• Chelsea to lose to Bournemouth

• Isak can end Arsenal hopes

Big Sam to park the bus

Man City v Leeds United
Saturday, 15:00

We all know how Sam Allardyce will approach this game. He might think of himself as on a par with Pep Guardiola but of course tactically he could hardly be more different. His Leeds side will park the bus at the Etihad, most likely playing like a caricature of a Big Sam team just to prove a point. It will be backs-to-the-wall stuff as the last bit of Bielsa coaching is thrown out.

But with only a few days to work with the players, Allardyce's instructions are unlikely to be fully understood.

A big part of the problem under Javi Gracia was the players continuing to press hard, and in a furious man-to-man fashion, even when they were supposed to keep their shape, poking holes in their own system and undermining the manager's ideas. Surely, so soon into the latest interim tenure, the Leeds players have too much to unlearn.

They will have spent the last few days working on how to compress space between the lines, how to resist closing down constantly, and how to play the percentages by suddenly counter-attacking at speed. On this latter point, Leeds stand a chance, possessing a lot of quick players who have retained good relationships even throughout their winless run. But on balance, there is no way they can hold out for long.

Solanke-led counters to expose Chelsea

Bournemouth v Chelsea
Saturday, 15:00

Bournemouth have won six of their last nine matches and continue to explode out of the blocks, largely playing on the counter-attack via Dominic Solanke and some old-school direct football pummelling down the flanks. Their confidence, more than their tactics, should be enough to beat such a disorganised Chelsea team.

Frank Lampard showed his lack of tactical acumen in midweek when he picked his three quickest players up front (Raheem Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Noni Madueke), only to find this severed the connection from midfield to attack and allowed Arsenal to overwhelm them. But worse than that, his weird 4-4-2 formation - with N'Golo Kante pressing like a striker - left huge gaps, allowing Arsenal to easily walk through the team.

It will be a completely different strategy and team selection again for this one, but there is no reason to think Frank Lampard - with six defeats from six - will suddenly get it right.

Chelsea are hopelessly chaotic, suffering without any meaningful connections between players or even a vague sense of a plan. Bournemouth's diligence, with Solanke (five goal contributions in his last four) dropping to link with the wingers, should be enough to take the three points.

Brentford won't trouble Klopp

Liverpool v Brentford
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Five consecutive Premier League wins has put Liverpool back into fifth, and might even set them up for a full recovery next season. The main reason behind their revival is the new position of Trent Alexander-Arnold in central midfield, which allows Liverpool to retain high numbers in the final third while providing Fabinho will support to screen against counter-attacks.

Brentford rarely hold more than 25% possession when playing against a 'Big Six' club, and are not very good at breaking quickly in open play, which means the two-man defensive screen should be comfortable enough. In fact, the depth of Thomas Frank's formation invites being penned in and, as confidence grows, Liverpool have relearnt how to be relentless in their waves of pressure at Anfield.

Consequently this should be an easy win for Jurgen Klopp's side, who will take on Brentford's 5-3-2 with gusto.

The only danger is from set-pieces or long balls forward up to the head of Ivan Toney, but Brentford's defeats to Newcastle United and Wolves showed that this is far less effective when faced with powerful centre-backs like Ibrahima Konate and Virgil van Dijk.

Isak v Partey a problem for Arsenal

Newcastle v Arsenal
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Arsenal's final big test before the end of the season is at St. James Park, where Newcastle United have looked very good at attacking quickly in the transition all season. This is a worry for Arsenal, who dropped Thomas Partey for the Chelsea win in midweek and are arguably without a good-enough defensive midfielder at the moment.

Whether it's Partey or Jorginho, there are inevitably holes in midfield when Oleksandr Zinchenko gets caught between midfield and left-back positions, typically when the opponent begins to build from a dead ball. It is in these moments that Alexander Isak, dropping into the ten space, might just weave into gaps either side of the defensive midfielder just as Kevin de Bruyne did ten days ago.

Newcastle have scored nine goals in their last two home games while Arsenal have won just one of their last five away matches in all competitions. This game feels like another in which early pressure from the hosts, and a baying crowd, will cause nerves to grow among the Arsenal players. The title race should be over by Sunday evening.

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