Premier League Jones Knows Notebook: Brighton will concede more without Caicedo

• Brighton missed Caicedo against Luton

• Evan Ferguson showed he's the real deal

• Ben Chilwell the key attacking outlet for Poch

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Caicedo sale leaves Brighton vulnerable

So, Brighton 4-1 Luton. No Moises Caicedo, no problem for Brighton then? It wasn't quite that simple. The underlying performance data, and what I saw at the Amex while I was reporting on the game, told a different story.

Remember, his all-round numbers for recoveries, tackles and interceptions were among the best in the league last season. And Brighton missed that skillset. He isn't being snapped up for £115m by Chelsea for fits and giggles.

His importance to Brighton without the ball in stemming opponents' potential counters was a key reason why Roberto De Zerbi's relentless football flourished last season as teams could not break out from their defensive shape.

That was missing on Saturday though as Luton pulled off many counter-attack transitions that ought to have led to more dangerous moments in front of goal. Fortunately for Brighton, the Hatters' final ball wasn't up to the standard required.

Luton managed 38 passes into Brighton's final third and 21 touches in their box. That is a spike on usual numbers given up by De Zerbi's side at home.

Nottingham Forest (37 final third passes and six touches in the box), Aston Villa (34 and 15), Liverpool (37 and 18), Fulham (35 and eight), West Ham (23 and nine), Crystal Palace (35 and 20), Brentford (36 and 17), Wolves (28 and 15) and Southampton (24 and five) all recorded fewer on both counts than Luton managed. Even Manchester City only managed 33 passes into the final third in their fixture at The Amex in May. Luton's numbers were impressive.

So, how do we profit then for Brighton's next fixture at Wolves on Saturday? Looking at the early prices, there is an edge in the total goals market when factoring in how more exposed the Brighton defence are without the Caicedo protection.

Since De Zerbi's first game in charge, Brighton's games have seen more goals than any other Premier League side (114) - and that average could even be on the rise as they try to adapt to life without their main midfield destroyer.

The 2/13.00 on over 3.5 goals will surely shorten the closer we get to matchday.

It's Fergie time

Evan Ferguson is the next £100m player off the Brighton cab rank.

No pressure on the lad, but he is the closest comparison I've seen to Harry Kane in terms of finishing and intelligence. The upturn in threat when he appeared from the bench to replace Danny Welbeck with 13 minutes to go against Luton said it all.

In that final period, Brighton posted seven shots, scored twice to a backdrop of 1.7 worth of expected goals with Ferguson scoring, hitting the woodwork and creating a chance.

There will be no splinters on Saturday for Ferguson at Wolves. De Zerbi mentioned in his press conference that the Irishman is a "first XI" player and just wasn't quite as game-ready as Welbeck, who put in a rather typical Welbeck performance of failing to score from his four attempts to a backdrop of 0.32 worth of expected goals.

Keep Ferguson in your thoughts for first goalscorer betting opportunities over the next few weeks, because in this De Zerbi side, he could get on a goalscoring roll. The sky is the limit.

Poch gives Chilwell licence to attack

Mauricio Pochettino is already waving his magic wand and getting his message across to his new Chelsea squad. After a nervy 15 minutes vs Liverpool, they looked organised and produced some clever attacking patterns in the game - mostly involving the two key wide men Reece James and Ben Chilwell.

These two, if they stay fit, will post some bulky goal involvement numbers this season, especially Chilwell, who should be watched in the goalscorer and shots markets over the next few matchdays.

Reporting from Stamford Bridge is a real treat as the press box is within a stone's throw of the technical area, so it was a real insight to see how demanding Pochettino was in telling his boys to switch the ball quickly into the advanced Chilwell.

When Pochettino's players delivered on that tactic, he was beaming. Such was Chilwell's licence to attack, he was the second highest player when analysing the average positions of the Chelsea team.

He recorded a shot on target to a backdrop of 0.16 expected goals (he should've done better with the finish) whilst also having a goal disallowed when venturing into a central area. Chelsea are at West Ham on Sunday and I'll have my eyes on Chilwell when the markets form.

Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is Sky Sports' resident betting expert - follow his Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.