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Early advantage for Chelsea
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Low-scoring affair at Villa Park
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Son backed at 9/43.25 to trouble City
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Leicester v Chelsea SuperBoost
Nicolas Jackson is leading the line for Chelsea in fine form this season, netting six Premier League goals so far.
He's keeping out Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku amongst others, and perhaps it is no surprise, as he has managed more shots on target than any other Chelsea player this season (15).
Indeed, only Erling Haaland (32) and Mo Salah (21) have managed more than Jackson's 15 this season, with the Chelsea managing 1 or more shots on target in every single one of his 11 Premier League appearances so far.
English Premier League - Top 3 Shots On Target
Can he do it once again in the lunchtime kick-off? Well, only Brentford (203) have faced more shots this season than Leicester City (195), so we've SuperBoosted Nicolas Jackson to hit the target once again, now 1/1, up from 1/3!
Back Nicolas Jackson to have 1 or more shots on target (was 1/3) NOW
The Foxes have conceded every 47 minutes this term and have a propensity for letting in early goals. Only Ipswich Town have conceded more goals before the break than Steve Cooper's strugglers. In five of their last seven they have found themselves behind within 20 minutes.
If this were not concerning enough, the hosts face high-flying Chelsea hamstrung by an injury crisis up front. Both Jamie Vardy and Abdul Fatawu are serious doubts. Ayew is out. The trio have converted exactly half of Leicester's tally this season.
As for the visitors they will no doubt benefit once again from the intuitive understanding between Cole Palmer and Noni Madueke, the pair creating 17 chances for each other, but it's Pedro Neto on the left flank who intrigues.
With two goal involvements in three matches, the Portuguese winger's influence and level of performance is increasing and improving week on week. He is 11/102.11 to score or assist at the King Power.
Back Chelsea to be ahead on 20 minutes
Expect plenty of high turnovers and goals in this one, with the last 10 encounters between the teams producing a healthy 3.1 per 90.
Moreover, in Antoine Semenyo and Kauru Mitoma, this game features two of the most exhilarating and direct talents in the Premier League, the wingers completing 2.2 and 2.1 successful dribbles per 90 respectively. The latter has additionally accrued 5.3 progressive carries per game.
It feels incongruous therefore to lean into less savoury areas but Bournemouth haven't secured a firm footing in mid-table purely on their open and attractive football.
In midfield, Lewis Cook has committed the second highest number of fouls (24), while Tyler Adams definitely has a 'mistimed' challenge in him.
The Cherries have subsequently picked up 2.9 cautions per match to date.
Back Lewis Cook to commit 2 or more fouls and Bournemouth most cards
A home loss to Newcastle going into the break may have lowered their altitude but Nottingham Forest are flying nonetheless, unbeaten away from the City Ground and boasting a striker in blistering form.
Chris Wood's 67% shot accuracy is the best of any player who has scored 5+ times this term. Pertinently, he has converted four in his last three away games.
The reliable finisher is 4/15.00 to add to his eight-goal tally here.
Add a dangerous Callum Hudson-Odoi into the mix, along with Morgan Gibbs-White back from injury, and the Tricky Trees have a plethora of attacking talent to capitalize on Arsenal's recent slump.
That is not to downplay the difficulty of their task, even if the Gunners are without a league win in four.
Mikel Arteta's men have averaged 2.7 goals per 90 at the Emirates in 2024 and, if they have successfully reset after the international break, then naturally thoughts turn to Kai Havertz who tends to thrive on home soil.
Six of his seven goals in 2024/25 have come at the Emirates. He is long overdue an assist too.
Back Havertz to score or assist
Pau Torres and Ezri Konsa are both doubts, as too is Amadou Onana, and if a worst case scenario plays out Villa will be significantly weakened defensively this weekend.
This ordinarily would bring up the possibility of an unlikely away win, with Palace priced at 9/25.50 to prevail at Villa Park. After all, Jean-Philippe Mateta boasts a decent record in this fixture with six previous goal involvements.
Let's not forget too that the Eagles triumphed in the Midlands just three weeks back, in the League Cup.
We cannot ignore, however, that Oliver Glasner's side have the worst chance conversion rate in the top-flight - a meagre 5.1%. They have scored every 123 minutes this term and, worse still, Eze and Nketiah are both likely out.
It hardly gets any better when we switch to Villa's front-line, the Villans scoring one or fewer in four of their last five outings. Ollie Watkins has missed a league-high 11 big chances in 2024/25.
Opportunities will arise for sure, but will Villa convert them?
Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are both carrying knocks and rated at 50/50 to start. With the duo firing 68% of Brentford's goals this season, it goes without saying that it matters greatly if one, or both, are unavailable.
It forces us to wait and see which is hardly ideal for a betting preview.
Let's instead focus on the hosts who have hardly contributed entertaining fare of late. None of their last five outings have produced more than two goals. Two have been goalless stalemates.
The Bees have been the polar opposite in this regard but one of the cardinal truths of football is that it's easier to nullify than to create.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been fouled every 82 minutes this season.
Back under 2.5 goals and Calvert-Lewin to be fouled 1 or more times
The Cottagers mix up their play impressively, a variance that has, when it comes to some stats, elevated them above a small group of top four contenders. Only Liverpool and Aston Villa have scored more goals than Fulham this term from a sequence of 10+ passes but Marco Silva's men are also capable of servicing Raul Jimenez quickly with the second most direct attacks.
Key to both approaches is Alex Iwobi who has been involved in 60 shot-ending sequences. The Nigerian midfielder's xA of 2.9 is the second highest in the top-flight from open play.
Fulham are fancied here to extend their decent home record but Wolves have scored in their last three away fixtures, with Matheus Cunha bagging each time. Results suggest they are starting to turn a corner and both teams to score appeals.
Back BTTS, Cunha to score, and Iwobi to have 1 or more shots in each half
The international break came at a fortuitous time for a sky blue machine in desperate need of a reboot.
Four defeats on the bounce amounts to definitive proof that Pep Guardiola's men have been made mortal by the absence of Rodri. In each loss, however, City started brightly before coming unstuck.
They haven't forgotten how to be imperious and brilliant. They can just no longer sustain it over 90 minutes.
This bears out across the season with a mere eight goals converted in the second period of league games. Bournemouth, Forest and even Leicester have scored more in the second-half.
Here they encounter something of a bogey team in Spurs. The north Londoners are struggling themselves with inconsistency but typically come good in Manchester.
Which brings us to Son Heung-min and Dejan Kulusevski who each boast four goal involvements in their last three trips to the Etihad.
Backing the Swede to have one or more shots on target at 11/82.38 is definitely a shout but let's go with Son, an enduring scourge of City. Three of the Korean's shots against Ipswich a fortnight ago were from outside the box, with one on target.
Back Son to have 1 or more shots on target from outside the box
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