Premier League Predictions: Reds defence at it's worst

• Premier League heads into gameweek 13
• Using xG stats, Sporting Life-Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe tells us who is hot and who is cold
• Two out of three winners last week
• Liverpool easily exposed
• Two backable home teams

HOT trends?

Bees sting at home

I don't think anyone expected Brentford, just days after drawing 0-0 with Chelsea, to get battered 4-0 at Aston Villa last weekend.

That result may be off-putting to some in terms of getting the Bees on side this weekend, but not me.

Not only are they playing a Wolves team completely devoid of confidence and finishing quality, but Brentford are a completely different team at home copmared to on the road.

Since gaining promotion to the Premier League, the Bees have averaged 1.68 xGF and 1.17 xGA per game at home compared to 1.30 xGF and 1.79 xGA away.

They have won the xG battle in 18 of 25 at the Gtech Community Stadium, so when they are a backable price like this weekend's 2.26, they have to be selected.

Eagles to soar at Selhurst

Like with Brentford, Crystal Palace are in my book a must-back team when a decent price playing at home.

Their underlying process since Patrick Vieira took charge has been excellent (1.58 xGF, 1.07 xGA per game), winning the xG battle in 17 of 25.

When taking into account only games at home against non-big-six opponents, Palace have won the xG battle in a huge 15 of 17 league clashes, averaging 1.74 xGF and 0.98 xGA per game.

They host a Southampton side this weekend who are struggling to create chances on the road (0.83 xGF per away game) and fall into that same 'non-big-six' category.

A home win priced at 2.02 on the Exchange looks too good to turn down.

COLD trends?

Leicester attack unsustainable

Leicester head into the weekend as the sixth top scorers in the Premier League, but sit second bottom based on xGF.

That disparity is huge even at this stage of the season, and Infogol calculates that they had a 0.8% chance of scoring 21 times from chances equating to 12.3 xGF.

All of that suggests that, if Leicester don't improve their chance creation process, the goals will dry up for the Foxes.

Last weekend's win over Wolves was an extreme example of unsustainable clinical finishing, as Leicester scored four times from five shots equating to 0.89 xG - that kind of thing won't happen every week.

This issue, coupled with a still vulnerable defence, is a problem ahead of the visit of champions Manchester City, who look a good bet to cover the -1.5 Asian Handicap at a price of 1.88 on the Exchange.

Liverpool looser than ever

Liverpool were upset by Nottingham Forest last weekend, with the big eye-catcher again being just how easy it was for the bottom side to create chances.

On that occasion, the Reds allowed 2.44 xGA, and that was the fourth time in five Premier League games that Jurgen Klopp's side have conceded 2.0 or more xG.

Yes, you read that right. The fourth time in five games. Interestingly the only time in that run they didn't concede 2.0+ xG was when hosting the most potent attacking team in the land, Manchester City!

It has been reported that Jurgen Klopp's decision to change formation was to make his side more compact. Well, based on the underlying numbers, it's not working Jurgen.

Fortunately for Liverpool, their attack has remained extremely hot, meaning they reside in the top half. If not for their process going forward, they would be sat in the bottom 10.

Leeds are the visitors to Anfield on Saturday night, and they too have major issues defensively, but Jesse Marsch's side should fancy their chances of creating chances and scoring goals.

Both Teams to Score is a short price at 1.75 on the Exchange, but it looks like value given the underlying numbers.

You may think I'm mad given Liverpool have been involved in three straight 1-0's in the league, but based on the quality of chances created by both teams in those three games, BTTS would have landed 62%, 85% and 84% of the time according to Infogol's simulations.

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