Premier League Predictions: Soaring Magpies too big

• Two winners last week
• Magpies are flying
• United struggling in attack

HOT trends?

Newcastle the real deal

Eddie Howe has done a remarkable job at Newcastle, and now they are trending in a really positive direction.

They are unbeaten since the start of September, and in that time they have been the best team in the league on all major metrics.

Over that stretch, the Magpies top the league on xP per game (2.13), xGD per game (+1.58), xGF per game (2.45) and xGA per game (0.86).

They are legit, and a trip to Southampton shouldn't phase them given that the Saints rank bottom on xGF, xGD and xP per game in that same timeframe.

We can get 1.98 for an away win on the Exhange, and that looks far too big, making it a confident selection.

Hammer time

West Ham were beaten at Manchester United last time out, but that means their only two defeats in their last six have come at Old Trafford and at Anfield.

David Moyes's men have been solid at home since the international break, winning all three and winning the xG battle in all three, creating plenty of chances along the way.

The Hammers have averaged 2.24 xGF per game while allowing just 0.85 xGA per game, so look a very appealing price to beat Crystal Palace at 1.98 on the Exchange.

The Eagles have proven to be poor travellers this season, winless on the road and shipping an average of 2.36 xGA per game, and I think the Hammers should be a shorter price.

COLD trends?

Not so scary Devils

Manchester United are improving under Erik ten Hag. Their defence is looking mean, allowing few good chances since the hammering at Manchester City, shipping just 0.99 xGA per game across their last five league games.

However, their attacking process is a concern.

They have mustered just 1.37 xGF per game across that same span, which is not a level expected from a top four team.

The main reason for this is their shot selection. Over 50% of their attempts have come from outside the box, with the average shot they are taking having an xG of just 0.08.

That basically means every attempt has an 8% chance of being scored. That is not good, with United generating just five 'big chances' (0.35+ xG) in those five games.

All of that, coupled with the fact they are facing an Unai Emery-led Aston Villa team fresh off a 4-0 thrashing who will be keen to keep things tight, and Under 2.5 Goals makes great appeal at 2.0 on the Exchange.

Blues ice cold

I remain a big fan of Graham Potter, but the performances and underlying numbers his Chelsea team are putting in are hugely concerning.

They were hammered by Brighton last week, and after that game, Chelsea's underlying process under Potter in the Prem reads 1.19 non-pen xGF and 1.55 non-pen xGA per game.

Under Tuchel at the start of this season, it was 1.39 to 1.48. They have got worst.

Attacking struggles are there for all to see, and that should mean they find it incredibly difficult to break down an Arsenal team who have been more controlled than explosive on the road this term.

The league leading Gunners have averaged 1.42 xGF and 1.07 xGA per away game this term, so don't create a great deal themselves, so a low-scoring game appeals.

Under 2.5 Goals looks the play at 2.0 on the Exchange, with a toothless Chelsea likely working hard on keeping things tight after a blowout last weekend.

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