English Premier League Tips

Premier League Predictions: Get on the Gunners

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta applauds his team
Arteta's Arsenal can win comfortably against Leicester

"Arsenal won 13 of 19 at the Emirates last season, and will be licking their lips at the thought of playing against a Leicester team who have lost the xG battle in 11 of their last 15 league matches"

The new Premier League season got underway last weekend, and so it's time to dive into the 'Hot or Cold' aspect heading into gameweek 2. Sporting Life Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe uses the Infogol expected goals (xG) model to highlight key trends and a few bets...

One game is the smallest of sample sizes, so for this week (and probably until gameweek 6), I will be leaning on last season's data for this piece.

HOT trends?

Fortress Emirates

Arsenal's 22/23 campaign couldn't have started better, with the Gunners resisting pressure from a good Crystal Palace team to register a win on a tricky away day.

That makes a nice change, and while that will fill the team with confidence, a return to the Emirates will likely see Mikel Arteta's side excel further.

Last season Arsenal ranked as the third best home team in the league based on all major metrics, bettered only by runaway pair Liverpool and Manchester City.

arsenal-home-games.png

Their xG averages of 2.22 xGF and 1.03 xGA per home game are sure to only improve again this season given the new additions made to the first team and the further maturation of young stars such as Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe.

Arsenal won 13 of 19 at the Emirates last season, and will be licking their lips at the thought of playing against a Leicester team who have lost the xG battle in 11 of their last 15 league matches.

The fact that the Foxes posted a severley negative xG process when travelling last season (including allowing 2.00 xGA per game) only adds to the thought that this could be a comfortable afternoon for the hosts.

Arsenal -1.0 on the Asian Handicap looks the way in here at 1.85, with the Gunners covering the handicap in eight of their 13 home wins last term.

Leeds on the road

Leeds got their new season off to a winning start last weekend against Wolves, and head to Southampton in gameweek 2.

A road trip to St. Mary's looks like a great opportunity to pick up yet more points, especially if they pick up from where they left off away from home last term.

After the appointment of Jesse Marsch, the Whites won three and drew one of six away games, but their underlying process in that time was impressively positive.

They averaged 1.52 xGF and 1.30 xGA per away game in that spell, and against a vulnerable Saints defence they can get another positive result.

Leeds +0.25 on the Asian Handicap appeals at around 1.96 on the Exchange, with that bet seeing us win if the Whites are victorious while also returning half profit if the game ends in a draw.

COLD trends?

Creation at Villa and Everton

Generally this column wouldn't see me pair two teams together in one section, but on this occasion it seemed the most efficient way to tackle things.

Both Aston Villa and Everton are having major issues in attack ahead of a clash between the pair on Saturday.

Villa haven't been shy in the last two transfer markets, but despite bringing in some eye-catching quality in attacking areas, they are still struggling to consistently create chances.

Steven Gerrard's side averaged just 1.23 xGF per game last season after his appointment, the sixth worst process in the division, and started the new season by racking up a measly 0.69 xGF at Bournemouth.

As for Everton, their personnel issues in attack have been well documented over recent weeks, but even with a full complement they found it extremely difficult to threaten in attacking areas.

Last season under Frank Lampard the Toffees could only muster an average of 1.09 xGF per game, and managed just 0.66 xGF at home to Chelsea in their opener this term.

Fortunately for the pair, their defences have carried the load in that time, so Under 2.5 goals appeals at around 1.86 on the Exchange.

United (in general)

If there is one majorly COLD team at the moment then it is Manchester United.

Erik ten Hag has a gargantuan job on his hands to turn things around at Old Trafford, and Brighton only highlighted that fact.

If only United could operate both on and off the pitch the way the Seagulls do...

Defensively United remain a shambles.

Last season they averaged 1.56 xGA per game, which was the worst defensive process they have recorded since Sir Alex Ferguson left the club in 2013.

Starting the new season by allowing 1.78 xGA and being incredibly easy to play and create against suggests that the problem hasn't been fixed.

If it continues to persist then every Premier League team will be looking forward to playing against Manchester United, and a Brentford team who posted an impressive process at home last season (1.64 xGF, 1.08 xGA per game) will fancy their chances of adding to the woes of Ten Hag.

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