Premier League Opta Stats Betting: Back 5/1 assist tip and 9/1 Etihad Bet Builder

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Aged 39 years and 302 days on the day of this game, Amorim will be the youngest to take charge of his first match for the Red Devils since Wilf McGuinness in August 1969

The final international break of the year is done and dusted and the Premier League action comes thick and fast for the next few weeks, so let us find some Opta stat related bets for the return of the English top flight this weekend...


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Leicester City v Chelsea

Oh yes, Ndidi

The Opta Stat:

"Wilfred Ndidi has had more touches in the opposition box (33) and provided more assists (4) in the Premier League than any other Leicester player this season. His four assists have come from just nine chances created. Indeed, against Man Utd last time out, he had three of his side's six shots, hitting the target twice."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Wilfried Ndidi to have 2 or more shots @ 6/52.20

SuperBoost

Nicolas Jackson is leading the line for Chelsea in fine form this season, netting six Premier League goals so far.

He's keeping out Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku amongst others, and perhaps it is no surprise, as he has managed more shots on target than any other Chelsea player this season (15).

Indeed, only Erling Haaland (32) and Mo Salah (21) have managed more than Jackson's 15 this season, with the Chelsea managing 1 or more shots on target in every single one of his 11 Premier League appearances so far.

English Premier League - Top 3 Shots On Target

Player Team Apps Shots On target SoT/90*
Erling Haaland Man City 35 59 1.8
Igor Thiago Brentford 38 43 1.2
Antoine Semenyo Bournemouth 37 41 1.2

Can he do it once again in the lunchtime kick-off? Well, only Brentford (203) have faced more shots this season than Leicester City (195), so we've SuperBoosted Nicolas Jackson to hit the target once again, now 1/12.00, up from 1/31.33!


Arsenal v Nottingham Forest

Tight and cagey at the Emirates

The Opta Stat:

"No sides have scored more Premier League goals from set piece situations (excluding penalties) this season than either Arsenal or Nottingham Forest (5, level with Aston Villa). Meanwhile, 33% of the Gunners goals conceded have come from set pieces (4/12), with no team shipping a higher ratio in the competition this term. Including stoppage time, Nottingham Forest have been behind for just 102 minutes and 34 seconds in the Premier League this season, less time than any other side."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1/12.00


Aston Villa v Crystal Palace

Mateta's prices holding

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace striker Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored more Premier League goals (4) and recorded his joint-most assists (2) in the competition against Aston Villa than any other opponent; the Frenchman was directly involved in four of the Eagles' five goals in their 5-0 win over the Villans on the final day of last season (3 goals, 1assist)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Jean-Phillipe Mateta to score anytime @ 16/54.20


Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion

Kerkev assist looks over-priced

The Opta Stat:

"Bournemouth full back Milos Kerkez has recorded more overlaps into the final third (55) than any other player in the Premier League this season, with the 21-year-old recording the fifth-most crosses from open play of any defender in the competition so far this term (27)."

The Betfair Bet:


Everton v Brentford

Everton seem to have the Bees' number

The Opta Stat:

"Everton have lost only two of their last 10 Premier League games at Goodison Park (W6 D2), and have beaten Brentford in each of the last three meetings. Indeed, Brentford have lost all five of their Premier League away games this season; only in 1924-25 (9) and 1961-62 (9) have they ever lost each of their opening six or more away matches of a league campaign."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Everton to win @ 5/42.25


Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Smith-Rowe aiding Iwobi impact

The Opta Stat:

"Only Dejan Kulusevski (25), Cole Palmer (25), and Bernardo Silva (23) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Fulham's Alex Iwobi (22), with his expected assists total from open play of 2.9 the second-highest behind James Maddison (3.2)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Alex Iwobi to assist anytime @ 7/24.50


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur

Etihad bonanza on the cards

The Opta Stat:

"Both Man City and Spurs have scored at least two goals in this exact Premier League fixture at the Etihad in each of the last three seasons. No player has created more chances either overall (30) or from open play (25) in the Premier League this season than Tottenham's Dejan Kulusevski. Across his last five Premier League starts, meanwhile, Man City's Phil Foden has had 17 shots and created 18 chances, averaging 3.5 shots per 90 mins and 3.7 chances created in these games."

The Betfair Bet:


Southampton v Liverpool

The Egyptian King

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool's Mohamed Salah has both scored and assisted in the same match 35 times in the Premier League (including four already this term), just one shy of Wayne Rooney's record of 36 games with both a goal and assist in the competition. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 11 goals (7 goals, 4 assists) in 11 Premier League appearances against Southampton."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mo Salah to have 2 or more goal involvements @ 2/13.00


Ipswich Town v Manchester United

Amorim to start with a win?

The Opta Stat:

"Manchester United's Bruno Fernandes has made 137 passes which have broken the opposition's offside line in the Premier League this season, at least 15 more than any other player. Indeed, Bruno has either scored (5) or assisted (3) eight goals in his last seven appearances for club and country."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bruno Fernandes to have 2 or more goal involvements


Newcastle United v West Ham United

Magpies to soar at home

The Opta Stat:

"Along with Liverpool, Newcastle are one of two clubs yet to drop a single point from a winning position in the Premier League this season. The Magpies have won each of the last 10 matches in which they have led at any point in the Premier League, their longest such run since winning 11 in a row from February to August 2006."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Newcastle/Newcastle in the HT/FT market @ 6/52.20


Opta Stats P/L 2024-25 -

(Recommended bet(s) of the week)

Stake: 19pts
Return: 55.25
P/L: +34.25
ROI: +180%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 108pts
Return: 135.26
P/L: +27.26
ROI: +25.2%


Now read more of today's best tips and previews here!


Recommended bets

Back both sides to score 2+ goals, and both Foden & Kulusevski to score or assist @ 9/110.00

Back Back Milos Kerkez to assist anytime @ 5/16.00

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