Premier League Opta Stats: Best bets for Matchday 30

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Burnley v Bournemouth- Back Bournemouth to beat Burnley to the goal

Saturday 14th March, 15.00

The Opta Stat: 

Burnley have opened the scoring in just five different Premier League games this season, fewer than any other side. The fewest opening goals a team has scored across a full campaign in the division is seven, by Aston Villa in 2015-16 and Norwich City in 2021-22, both of whom finished bottom.

The Bet:

Bournemouth to score first @ 4/71.57

Sunderland v Brighton- Back the Black Cats to Win

Saturday 14th March, 15.00

The Opta Stat:

Brighton have won just one of their last eight league games against Sunderland (D2 L5), a 2-1 home win in the Championship in February 2005. At home, Sunderland have won their last five games against Brighton, and are unbeaten in nine against them (W7 D2) since a 2-1 loss in April 1981.

The Bet: 

Sunderland to Win @ 21/103.10

Arsenal v Everton- Back a Gunners Victory and Declan Rice Assist

Saturday 14th March, 17.30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Arsenal have lost just one of their last 15 league games (W10 D4), going down 3-2 against Manchester United in January. 

Only Bruno Fernandes (92) and Dominik Szoboszlai (56) have created more chances than Arsenal's Declan Rice in the Premier League this season (55).

The Bet: 

Chelsea v Newcastle- Back  João Pedro as Anytime Goalscorer

Saturday 14th March, 17.30
Live on Sky Sports 

The Opta Stat:

Only Erling Haaland (19) has scored more non-penalty goals in the Premier League this season than João Pedro (14), with only Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (19 in 2000-01) and Diego Costa (19 in 2014-15) ever 
netting more non-penalty goals in their debut Premier League season with Chelsea. In 2026, the Brazilian leads all players in the competition for total goals (8) and goal involvements (10 - 8 goals, 2 assists).

The Bet: 

Back Joao Pedro to Score @ 6/52.20

West Ham v Man City- Back Man City to lead both halves

Saturday 14th March, 20.00
Live on TNT Sports

The Opta Stat:

West Ham United are winless in 20 Premier League matches against Manchester City (D3 L17), since a 2-1 win in September 2015. It's their longest ever winless league run against an opponent.

When counting first halves only, Manchester City would have 67 points in the Premier League this season, 13 more than any other side (Arsenal 2nd with 54). However, they are 8th in a second half table with 41 points; their difference of 26 points between first and second half results is the most of any side in the topflight in 2025-26.

The Bet: 

Man City win at HT/FT @ 6/42.50

Crystal Palace v Leeds United- Back a Draw and DCL to Score

Sunday 15th March, 14.00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Leeds are winless in their last 11 Premier League away games against London sides (D2 L9). However, they've drawn their last two visits, coming from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Chelsea last time out in the capital.

Against no side has Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored more Premier League goals than he has against Crystal Palace (7), including a brace in Leeds' 4-1 win in the reverse fixture.

The Bet: 

Draw and Dominic Calvert-Lewin as Anytime Goalscorer @ 6/17.00

Manchester United v Aston Villa- Back United to Win to Nil

Sunday 15th March, 14.00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Manchester United have kept 30 clean sheets against Aston Villa in the Premier League - only Arsenal have kept more against a single opponent in the competition (31 vs Newcastle).

Having lost three of their first six Premier League games this season (W2 D1), Manchester United have since lost just three of their last 23 (W13 D7), though they did slip to a 2-1 loss at Newcastle United last time out.

The Bet: 

Nottingham Forest v Fulham- Back Fulham to Win and Jimenez to Score or Assist

Sunday 15th March, 14.00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Fulham have won six of their seven Premier League games against Nottingham Forest (L1), their highest win rate against any side they've faced more than twice (86%).

Fulham's Raúl Jiménez has either scored or assisted a goal in all four of his Premier League appearances against Nottingham Forest (4 goals, 1 assist), averaging a goal involvement every 65 minutes against the Tricky Trees.

The Bet: 

Fulham to Win and Raul Jimenez to Score @ 4/15.00

Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur- Back a Liverpool Win and Salah to Score

Sunday 15th March, 16.30
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Liverpool have lost just one of their last 31 home league games against Tottenham Hotspur (W21 D9), and are unbeaten in 14 (W10 D4) since a 2-0 loss in May 2011.

Liverpool's Mo Salah has scored 16 goals in his career against Tottenham Hotspur in all competitions (14 for Liverpool, 1 for Fiorentina, 1 for Basel), his joint-most against a single opponent (also 16 v Manchester United). 12 of those have come in the Premier League, with only Alan Shearer (14) netting more against Spurs in the competition.

The Bet: 

Brentford v Wolves- Back the Bees

Monday 16th March, 20.00
Live on Sky Sports

The Opta Stat:

Brentford are unbeaten in their last four league games against Wolves (W3 D1), and are looking to complete the double over them for the first time since 2015-16 in the Championship.

The Bet: 

Brentford to Win @ 4/91.44

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