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3/14.00 assist in set-piece battle of the best and worst
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Two Exchange plays at Turf Moor and City Ground
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Newcastle covered -1 handicap in 8 of last 10 home wins
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7/24.50 Brighton too big to ignore at Stamford Bridge
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Finish weekend with Doku inspired Bet Builder
Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers
A chance to boost the hosts to 2/1
The Opta Stat:
"Arsenal have scored in their last 31 meetings with Wolves in all competitions, since a 1-0 home loss in February 1979. If they score here, it will equal their longest scoring streak against an opponent in their history (current run of 32 against West Bromwich Albion). However, since losing 1-0 to Manchester United on MD1, Wolves have scored in each of their last 12 Premier League games. It's their second longest scoring streak in Premier League history, following an 18-game run between August and December 2019."
The Betfair Bet:
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Brentford v Luton Town
Set piece styles make fights
The Opta Stat:
"Only James Ward-Prowse (21) has created more chances from set plays than Luton's Alfie Doughty this season (16). Meanwhile, of players with at least 20 chances created, only Ward-Prowse (70%) has created a higher share from set plays than Brentford's Mathias Jensen (65% - 13/20). Indeed, Brentford have the highest xG generated of all Premier League sides this season from set-pieces, whilst Luton have the highest xGA from dead ball situations in the Premier League so far."
The Betfair Bet:
Burnley v Sheffield United
BTTS at almost evens? Yes please.
The Opta Stat:
"Burnley and Sheffield United are two of the four sides yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this term (along with Brighton and Luton). They're also the two sides with the most goals conceded so far this term (Sheffield United 34, Burnley 32)."
The Betfair Bet:
Nottingham Forest v Everton
Get on Overs as the outsider
The Opta Stat:
"Nottingham Forest's last two league games have both finished in 3-2 defeats. Since the start of last season they've lost more Premier League games while scoring 2+ goals than any other side, with their six such defeats in that time more than they'd suffered in their previous five campaigns in the competition combined (5). Indeed, in this exact fixture last season, three goals were scored before the 30 minute mark and the game finished 2-2. Despite failing to score in more different PL games than any other side, Everton have generated an xG figure of 20.6, but only scored 14. That's the biggest negative difference of any side."
The Betfair Bet:
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Visitors lack the character to handle St James' at 8pm
The Opta Stat:
"Newcastle kept a clean sheet in both Premier League meetings with Manchester United last season. They've not gone three league games in a row without conceding against the Red Devils since November 1897 in the second tier. Newcastle's last five Premier League wins against Manchester United have been to nil. Also, the Magpies' last 10 Premier League home wins have come by an aggregate score of 34-6, covering the -1 handicap in eight of those victories."
Bournemouth v Aston Villa
Does Villa's Europa Conference League game give inform Bmouth a chance?
The Opta Stat:
"Bournemouth have won three of their last four Premier League games (L1), having been winless in 13 before this (D3 L10). They've not won more consecutively in the top-flight since a run of four between May-August 2018, while they last won three in a row in the same season in March 2016. However, heading into MD14, only Manchester City (33) have scored more Premier League goals than Aston Villa (31) so far this season. The Villains rate of 2.4 goals per game is their highest across a league season since 1931-32 (2.48)."
The Betfair Bet:
Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea too short for Brighton visit
The Opta Stat:
"Brighton and Hove Albion's 13 Premier League games this season have seen 51 goals scored (28 for, 23 conceded), the most of any team. The Seagulls have scored and conceded in their last 17 Premier League games, with Newcastle United the last top-flight team to have a longer such run (21 between December 1957 and August 1958). Indeed, Pascal Groß has been involved in 10 goals in his last 18 Premier League appearances (5 goals, 5 assists), assisting two goals in Brighton's 3-2 win over Nottingham Forest. They head to a Chelsea side who have won only three of their 19 Premier League home games in 2023, and managed just one clean sheet in 11."
The Betfair Bet:
Liverpool v Fulham
The Egyptian King
The Opta Stat:
"After not scoring or assisting in any of his first four Premier League appearances in 2023, Liverpool's Mohamed Salah has 22 goals and 13 assists in his last 31 league appearances this year. Only Salah himself (40 in 2018) and Luis Suárez (37 in 2013) have ever registered more Premier League goals and assists combined in a calendar year for the Reds, while only Trent Alexander-Arnold (17 in 2019) has more assists in a year. Indeed, Liverpool have the highest xG of any Premier League side this season, with Fulham the fifth highest xGA so far."
The Betfair Bet:
West Ham United v Crystal Palace
Keep betting on Tomas
The Opta Stat:
"Fifty per cent of Tomas Soucek's Premier League goals for West Ham United have come via set plays (12/24 - nine via corners, three free kicks). Since February 2020, the only player with more goals from set plays (excl. penalties and direct free kicks) is Mohamed Salah (13). Indeed, across his last seven Premier League games, Soucek is averaging 3+ shots per game, and has had four in each of his last two."
The Betfair Bet:
Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Angeball won't change for Pep
The Opta Stat:
"Tottenham have scored first in their last three Premier League matches but gone on to lose all three, only the fifth side to do that in Premier League history and first since Leicester in December 2014. No team has ever scored first and lost four games in a row. Man City, meanwhile, have only managed five clean sheets in 21 matches in all competitions this season, though they have won all-but-one of their last 25 home games (D1). The champions Jeremy Doku is one of only three Premier League players coming into this weekend who averages over 2.0 shots per 90 from open play, and over 2.0 chances created from open play, alongside Salah and Moussa Diaby. Destiny Udogie, on the other hand, averages 2.4 fouls per 90 in Premier League matches."
The Betfair Bet:
Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -
(Single Recommended bet of the week)
Stake: 13pts
Return: 17.1
P/L: +4.1
ROI: +31%
(Overall column)
Stake: 127pts
Return: 146.33
P/L: +19.33
ROI: +15%
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