Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 7/1 goals tip and 4/1 Bet Builder

Alexander Boyes
Published on 16 Dec 2023 at 10:00
3:00 min read

Four of last week's nine bets landed giving us 2.5 pts of profit thanks to Villa, Everton and Sheffield United all winning. Raul Jimenez at 21/103.10 was also the value play on current form and netted the opener to cap a Super Sunday. This weekend we go again with 10 more bets based on Premier League Opta Stats.

Can Richarlison get us off to 5/16.00 winner?
Sterling loves the new boys - back him at 7/18.00
Back 12/53.40 Odegaard to enjoy his birthday
Finish the weekend with 9/43.25 Salah bet to beat Man Utd
Claim your completely free Acca or Bet Builder here!

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur

Take the boost on Richarlison

The Opta Stat:

"With his brace against Newcastle last time out, Richarlison doubled his Premier League goal tally for Tottenham (2 in 39 appearances previously). He's not scored in consecutive league matches since May 2022, and his final two games for Everton. Indeed, the Brazilian had three shots on target last week against Newcastle, across the first (2) and second (1) half."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Richarlison to have 1+ shots on target in each half @ 5/1

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Bournemouth v Luton Town

Assist price yet to be adjusted

The Opta Stat:

"Only Kieran Trippier (41) has played more successful crosses (including corners) than Luton's Alfie Doughty (30) in the Premier League this season. Twenty-two of these have led directly to a shot for Luton (3 goals), with only Trippier again creating more chances with his crosses (25). In fact, Doughty assisted two of Luton's three goals against Arsenal on MD15, both from corners."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Alfie Doughty to assist anytime @ 9/2

Chelsea v Sheffield United

Will Poch leave if Blues fail here?

The Opta Stat:

"Chelsea's Raheem Sterling has been involved in 19 goals in his last 18 Premier League appearances against promoted sides, scoring 15 and assisting four. Three of his five league goals this season (60%) have come against such clubs (2 vs Luton, 1 vs Burnley). Indeed, Sheffield United are the only team without an away win in the Premier League so far this season (D1 L6). The Blades have also scored fewer (4) and conceded the joint most (20) away goals in the top-flight this term."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Raheem Sterling to score 2 or more goals @ 7/1

Manchester City v Crystal Palace

City to come out firing

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace have scored a league-low total (3) and percentage (20% - 3/15) of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season. Manchester City have scored six times the amount of first-half goals the Eagles have this term (a league-high 18)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Man City (-1) first half result @ 11/5

Newcastle United v Fulham

CL hearbreak tough to overcome?

The Opta Stat:

"Fulham have scored 16 goals in their last four Premier League games, one more than they had in their previous 15 combined. They've won their last two games 5-0 - only two teams have ever scored 5+ goals in three consecutive Premier League games; Chelsea in May/August 2010 and Manchester City in September 2017. However, Newcastle have won 80.8% of their Premier League points in home games this season (21/26), with only Sheffield United (87.5%) winning a higher share on their own patch. The Magpies have won their last six at St James' Park, last having a longer run in the top-flight between September 2002 and January 2003 (11)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS and the draw @ 7/2

Burnley v Everton

Doucoure to settle Dyche derby

The Opta Stat:

"Everton's Abdoulaye Doucouré has applied 664 pressures on opposing players in the Premier League this season, over 100 more than any other player (Dominic Solanke next highest with 497). The Malian has scored 11 goals since Sean Dyche joined the Toffees earlier this year, accounting for 34% of his total in the Premier League (11/32)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Doucoure to have 2+ shots and commit 1+ fouls in each half @ 4/1

Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion

Happy Birthday Martin

The Opta Stat:

"Martin Ødegaard turns 25 on the day of this game; the last Arsenal player to score on their birthday in a Premier League match was Mesut Özil against Swansea in October 2016. Against no side has Ødegaard been involved in more Premier League goals than he has against Brighton (4 - 2 goals, 2 assists). Indeed, Brighton have conceded in each of their last 20 Premier League games; their joint longest run without a clean sheet (also 20 games between September 1947 and March 1948)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Martin Odegaard to score anytime @ 12/5

Brentford v Aston Villa

Emery's Villa keep on rolling

The Opta Stat:

"Aston Villa are unbeaten in all six of their Premier League games in London under Unai Emery (W4 D2), with their last capital defeat coming at Fulham in October 2022 under Steven Gerrard (0-3). They've won their last two in the capital, last winning three consecutive top-flight visits in February 1990. Indeed, none of Emery's 92 Premier League games (with Arsenal then with Villa) has finished 0-0, the most games any manager has taken charge of without any finishing goalless. Overall, only Alex Ferguson ever had a longer run without such a result in the competition, going 114 games between May 1999 and May 2002."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Aston Villa to win 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1 @ 4/1

West Ham v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Ha-Cunha-Matata

The Opta Stat:

"Since a 2-0 win over Sheffield United in September, West Ham are without a clean sheet in their last nine league games, conceding 20 goals during that time; they last went 10 games in the competition without a clean sheet in May 2021. Indeed, only Brighton, Liverpool and Tottenham (all 16) have scored in more different Premier League games this season than Wolves (15). The last time they failed to score in the competition was their opening game against Manchester United in August. Matheus Cunha, meanwhile, is just the fourth different Wolves player to either score (3) or assist (2) in five successive Premier League appearances, after Hwang Hee-chan in November 2023, Steven Fletcher in August 2011 and Henri Camara in May 2004 (7 games)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Matheus Cunha to score or assist in a Wolves win @ 4/1

Liverpool v Manchester United

The Egyptian King

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have won all seven of their Premier League games at Anfield this season. Only in 2019-20 (first 17) have the Reds begun a Premier League campaign with a longer home winning run. Liverpool are also averaging three goals per game at home in the league this term (21 goals), their most in a single season in the competition. Manchester United, meanwhile, have failed to win any of their last 13 Premier League away games against sides starting the day in the top eight of the table (D3 L10) since beating Spurs 3-0 under Ole Gunnar Solskjær in October 2021. For Liverpool, Mohamed Salah has scored 12 goals in 12 games against the Red Devils; it's the most goals he's scored against an opponent for the club, and the most goals any Liverpool player has ever scored against the Red Devils."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mohamed Salah to outscore Man Utd @ 9/4

Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 16pts
Return: 17.1
P/L: +1.1
ROI: +6.8%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 146pts
Return: 167.63
P/L: +21.63
ROI: +15%

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Recommended bets

Back Mohamed Salah to outscore Manchester United @ 9/43.25

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