Premier League Opta Stats: Back a 4/1 upset win and an 8/1 Bet Builder

Mike Norman
Published on 17 Feb 2024 at 11:01
3:00 min read

Manchester City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne — Kevin De Bruyne has returned to fitness in stunning form

With Alex Boyes away Mike Norman takes over the tipping chair this week, and using Opta stats our man brings us 10 bets, one for each of this weekend's Premier League games...

Jota can kick-start weekend in 9/25.50 wager
Back goals galore again at St James' Park
8/19.00 Bet Builder featuring free-scoring Spurs
Can Blades pull off 4/15.00 upset?
Mike has 10 bets from 6/52.20 to 8/19.00

Brentford v Liverpool

Jota lot we can say about superb Diogo

The Opta Stat:

"Liverpool have both scored and conceded in all seven of their away league games against Brentford. The Reds' Diogo Jota has scored nine Premier League goals this season, and is looking to hit double figures in a single campaign for just a second time in the competition (15 in 2021-22). The Portuguese forward has scored five goals in his last six league matches, and was on the scoresheet in his only previous appearance at the Brentford Community Stadium in the top-flight (September 2021)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back BTTS - Yes, Liverpool Win & Jota to score @ 9/2

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Burnley v Arsenal

Gunners scoring for fun

The Opta Stat:

"Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 10 away league games against Burnley (W5 D5). Eight of these have come in the Premier League. Arsenal are one of only two sides with a 100% Premier League record in 2024 so far, winning all four games and scoring 16 goals. Burnley have taken just five points in their 12 home Premier League matches this season (W1 D2 L9), the fewest of any side."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Arsenal HT/Arsenal FT & Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/4

Fulham v Aston Villa

Cottagers score, Cottagers win

The Opta Stat:

"Fulham have won six of their last nine home Premier League matches (D1 L2), scoring three or more goals in five of those wins. Indeed, the Cottagers have won all seven home Premier League games this season
when scoring. Fulham have won three of their last four Premier League home games against Aston Villa."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Fulham to Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/3

Newcastle v Bournemouth

Entertainment guaranteed

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle United have shipped 10 goals in their last three home Premier League games, conceding at least three times in each game. Newcastle have scored 51 Premier League goals in 24 matches this season - the earliest into a top-flight season they've hit 50+ goals since 1960-61."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Over 4.5 goals at St James' Park @ 3/1

Nottingham Forest v West Ham

Pressure to crank up on Moyes

The Opta Stat:

"West Ham have lost both of their last two league games, conceding nine goals in the process. The Hammers also failed to score in those two defeats. Anthony Elanga has been directly involved in 11 goals in 23 Premier League appearances for Nottingham Forest (5 goals, 6 assists) - no player has ever been involved in more goals aged 21 or younger for Forest in the Premier League (Brennan Johnson, also 11)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Nottm Forest to Win & Elanga to Score or Assist @ 10/3

Tottenham v Wolves

Son to shine in entertaining game

The Opta Stat:

"Wolves have netted eight goals in their last three on the road, having
only scored 10 goals in their previous 12 away games. Tottenham have scored in each of their last 36 Premier League matches and at least two goals in each of their last nine. Son Heung-min has been directly involved in nine goals in his last eight Premier League appearances (4
goals, 5 assists), assisting Brennan Johnson's winner for Tottenham against Brighton last time out on his return from the Asian Cup."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Spurs Win, Son to Score & Assist & BTTS - Yes @ 8/1

Manchester City v Chelsea

It's all about Kevin

The Opta Stat:

"Man City are on the longest scoring run on home soil in the Premier League, scoring in their last 44 games at the Etihad and netting 135 goals in these games. Kevin De Bruyne has assisted a goal in all four of Manchester City's league games in 2024, despite only starting two of them. The Belgian could become the 11th different player to assist a goal in 5+ successive Premier League appearances and the first to do so for the Citizens."

The Betfair Bet:

Keep it simple and back KDB to assist in a City win @ 6/5

Sheffield United v Brighton

More hopes revived for Blades

The Opta Stat:

"Sheffield United are unbeaten in their last seven league games against Brighton (W4 D3), since a 2-1 home defeat in the Championship in January 2005. Brighton are winless in all five of their Premier League meetings with Sheffield United (D3 L2). The Seagulls are winless in their last six away Premier League matches (D2 L4), their longest run without a victory on the road since a seven game run under Graham Potter between September and December 2021."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Sheffield United to Win @ 4/1

Luton Town v Manchester United

Young gun to maintain scoring streak

The Opta Stat:

"Erik ten Hag has won all nine of his Premier League games against newly promoted clubs, the best 100% win ratio against those sides of any manager in Premier League history. After failing to score in his first 14 Premier League appearances, Man Utd's Rasmus Højlund has scored one goal in each of his last five matches."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Hojlund to Score in a Man Utd win @ 9/4

Everton v Crystal Palace

Toffees to leave Hodgson facing sticky end

The Opta Stat:

"Crystal Palace have lost their last three away Premier League matches, shipping 11 goals in these games. The Eagles haven't lost more consecutively since losing their final four away games in the 2019-20 season. Everton's only win in their last 11 games (D5 L5) was at home against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup in January, having already beaten them in the Premier League this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Everton to Win to Nil @ 7/4

Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 22pts
Return: 26.1
P/L: +4.1
ROI: +19%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 213pts
Return: 242.98
P/L: +32.98
ROI: +14%

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