Premier League Midweek Tips: Back Marmoush plus 7/1 Chelsea v Spurs bet

• Early goals anticipated at St James' Park

• Palace defence is a fortress in 2025

• Go big at the Bridge with 7/18.00 treble

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Wednesday

Bournemouth v Ipswich (19:45) - Back cards

All of Bournemouth's March fixtures have seen them go in front only to draw or lose inside the 90 minutes. This is not a recent phenomenon for the Cherries. On 14 occasions in the league they have relinquished a lead and, in an otherwise hugely successful campaign, their inability to maintain a one goal advantage is an Achilles heel.

Can Kieran McKenna's Tractor Boys exploit this weakness? Winless in 2025 and looking more doomed with every passing week, they're certainly capable of conceding first. But perhaps it's relevant that 59% of their points tally this term have come away from Portman Road.

With this being a good time to head to the south coast, the 7/18.00 on an away win looks tempting. But let's go with cards, what with both teams residing in the bottom four of the fair play table.

Bournemouth have picked up 14 cautions in their last four outings. That's more than any other four-game cluster all season.

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Brighton v Aston Villa (19:45) - Pervis backed at 5/23.50

There were far more negatives than positives for the Seagulls at the weekend, not least of course exiting the FA Cup at the last eight stage. In an overall drab display against Nottingham Forest, however, Pervis Estupinan stood out and was always lively, always a threat down the left.

On top of his defensive duties, the Ecuadorian got forward to good effect and if we include his international commitments of late that's now three games in four where the full-back has posted a shot on target.

Here his opposite number is Matty Cash, who also needs little encouragement to bomb on, and which player best stakes a claim in enemy territory could be key to the outcome of this match.

After spending the international break warm weather training in Dubai, the visitors should be the fresher of the two teams - despite playing 24 hours after Brighton in the Cup - but all the same a score-draw is fancied at the Amex, mirroring the corresponding fixture back in late December. Odds of 29/103.90 are offered up for that.

A more conservative option is to back both teams to score. Both teams have scored and conceded in 68.9% of their league games this term.

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Man City v Leicester (19:45) - Home banker

The last time the Foxes scored in the Premier League it was late January and the UK was surveying the damage cause by Storm Eowyn. In football terms, it was six matches ago. Ruud Van Nistelrooy's malfunctioning side haven't scored in the league for nine-and-a-half hours.

Add a porous defence into the equation and Leicester can be justly compared to my back fence after Eowyn rank amok. They are presently unfit for purpose. Firewood at best.

Pep Guardiola's unreliable collective may have kept fewer clean sheets than Manchester United this term - and crucially are without Erling Haaland here - but can anyone foresee a result other than a home win?

Standing in for the injured Norwegian, Omar Marmoush is a proven threat, scoring every 139 minutes and posting a shot on target every 63 minutes since joining in January.

The Egyptian and his new colleagues could well have a field day with only Mads Hermansen offering up a high quality of resistance. The Leicester keeper has pulled off miracles at times in recent months but usually to no avail, making seven saves in Leicester's last away fixture. There have also been plenty of threes, fours and fives as he minimizes his team's suffering.

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Newcastle v Brentford (19:45) - Party poopers?

Following their cup success and subsequent open-top bus parade, Eddie Howe will do his level best to ensure this isn't a case of 'After the Lord Mayor's show' for Newcastle.

Still, St James Park will be in celebratory mood this Wednesday and that rarely translates to a ruthless team display.

Perhaps it's pertinent then that Brentford have scored from their first shot on nine occasions this season while Newcastle have conceded the first shot they've faced nine times. The Bees to be ahead on 20 mins offers up 5/16.00

A safer bet, however, covers goals scored before the break for either team. Both have converted and conceded more goals in the first 45 minutes of their contests this season than in the second-half. Furthermore, that trend seems to be intensifying.

In their last 10 league outings Newcastle have - for and against - been involved in 2.2 goals per first half. Eight of the last 11 goals the Bees have been involved with have come before the break.

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Southampton v Crystal Palace (19:45) - Palace lockdown

The Eagles' front-line were clinical at the weekend, putting three past Fulham in the Cup from just eight attempts on goal. It was the first time in 15 games where their shot count failed to reach double figures yet it was their second highest margin of victory all season.

Eberechi Eze stood out in particular, scoring, assisting and racking up four key passes. But if the England winger, along with Sarr and Mateta, form a lethal trio mention must also go to Palace's rearguard, and a 3-4-3 set-up that makes them so hard to break down.

The last time Oliver Glasner's men were breached away from Selhurst Park was at the Amex in mid-December, a consolation for a Brighton side well beaten on the day. Ever since it's been 633 minutes and counting of clean sheets on their travels, a feat that's put them close to breaking several records.

A relegation-doomed opponent therefore, who have converted a meagre 0.7 goals per 90 at home all season, shouldn't pose too many problems.

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Liverpool v Everton (20:00) - Merseyside derby round two

The Reds may have bossed possession when the last high-octane Merseyside derby took place at Goodison six weeks ago but it was the Toffees who boasted the superior stats.

They ended with a marginally better xG - 0.95 to 0.62 - largely from limiting their neighbours to just 10 shots. They committed nine fouls to Liverpool's 20 which acutely highlights the league leader's collective frustration on the night. Everton were good value for the draw even if it took them until the 98th minute to secure it.

Furthermore, given how often Arne Slot has mentioned the game since, it's clear Liverpool were successfully rattled across Stanley Park. All told, it was a job well done by David Moyes.

And now Moyes takes his side - unbeaten in nine - to Anfield with very much the same mandate in mind. He will congest the central areas, forcing the Reds to speculate on crosses, something his own side delight in doing themselves.

At Goodison, Alexis Mac Allister scored from a header while Beto and Doucoure both went close via the same means. Expect more of the same on Wednesday.

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Thursday

Chelsea v Tottenham (20:00) - Oil and water

The Blues have scored twice past Spurs in 10 of their last 12 encounters at Stamford Bridge. Perhaps more meaningfully, they have fired four past them on their last two trips to north London. In short, Chelsea know their way around a Tottenham defence, historically and now.

It probably won't surprise therefore to learn that Ange Postecoglou has yet to pick up a single point in this fixture, from three previous meetings, and that is likely to continue what with Chelsea's superb home form in 2025.

Played seven (W6, D1) is a testament to Enzo Maresca's pragmatism even if it does antagonise the faithful. Not that there will be anything pragmatic about Thursday's proceedings, these teams so often bringing out the crazy in one another. The last time they collided at the Bridge 35 shots rained in combined. Their clash earlier this season produced seven goals.

Let's go big then, in every department.

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Now read Paul Higham's Opta Stats preview of all midweek games here 

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