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Premier League Manager Tips: Back these four to leave in a near 11/1 Acca

Mike Norman
26 July 2022
5:00 min read

Thomas Frank looks a big price at 7/4 to leave Brentford before the end of the season

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Mike Norman takes a look at the 'Manager to Leave their Club' (before the end of the season) market and selects four Premier League bosses he expects to be given their marching orders...

"And just last week the Toffees lost 4-0 to Minnesota United in a pre-season friendly, prompting Lampard to warn of another season of struggle ahead. It's as if he wants out before the campaign has even started."

As the new Premier League season approaches it may seem a bit doom and gloom to be already thinking about which managers will lose their job, but when we know that something is almost certain to happy then trying to profit from it makes complete sense.

We know that Premier League managers will be sacked this season, trying to predict which ones is the difficult task. However, that task can be made much easier by looking at recent history and applying some simple logic.

Betfair is giving you the chance to combine multiple managers to leave their posts before the end of the 2022-23 campaign in your own seasonal Bet Builder. Try that here.

What history tells us

There's never been a Premier League season in which a manager hasn't been sacked, and it's unlikely that there ever will be.

The most obvious reason for this is two-fold; one being that some clubs will undoubtedly underperform during a campaign, while the other is that a bunch of clubs will always be threatened with relegation.

And the simple fact is that Premier League chairmen won't hesitate to pull the trigger if any of the above happens to their club.

I've taken a look at the last six Premier League seasons and I'm happy that a consistent pattern emerges when it comes to managers being sacked.

The below data shows the number of clubs that sacked the manager they started the campaign with before that season had concluded (league position at time of sacking in brackets).

*Please Note: This data does not include clubs that appointed a manger during a season and sacked him before the conclusion of the season.

2021-22: 9
- Watford (14), Newcastle (19), Tottenham (8), Norwich (20), Villa (15), Man Utd (7), Everton (15), Leeds (16), Burnley (18)

2020-21: 4
- West Brom (19), Chelsea (9), Sheff Utd (20), Tottenham (7)

2019-20: 5
- Watford (20), Tottenham (14), Arsenal (8), Everton (18 ), West Ham (17)

2018-19: 5
- Fulham (20), Southampton (18), Man Utd (6), Huddersfield (20), Leicester (12)

2017-18: 9
- Palace (19), Everton (18), Leicester (18), West Ham (18), West Brom (17), Swansea (20), Stoke (18), Watford (10), Southampton (17)

2016-17: 5
- Swansea (17), Palace (17), Hull (20), Leicester (17), Middlesbrough (19)

Number of clubs to sack their manager: 37
Average number of managers sacked per season: 6:17
% of managers sacked when in bottom six: 73% (27/37)
% of managers sacked when in bottom six (excluding 'big six' clubs): 90% (27/30)

The most obvious point to note from the above data is that it completely backs up the reasons already mentioned as to why managers get the sack.

Of the seven times a 'big six' club sacked their manager, six of them - Tottenham (three times), Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd - came when the club was underperforming and positioned outside of the top six in the table.

And that means that of the other 30 sackings in the above sample data, 27 (90%) of them came at clubs when they were in the bottom six of the table and fighting a relegation battle.

Applying simple logic

As the sub-header implies, and as the six-season data shows, applying some logic as to which managers could be in line for the sack is a simple task.

And that logic is to just look at the clubs who are expected to struggle this term - and we don't even need to do any research for that, we can just look at the Relegation market.

True, it's a lot more difficult to predict which of the bigger clubs will underpeform, so for that reason I'm happy to overlook the higher profile managers in Betfair's 'To Leave their Club before the Final Day of the Season' market.

And instead, my four managers that I fancy will struggle to keep their jobs this term are all in charge at clubs that I fully expect to struggle.

Thomas Frank (7/4) - Second season tends to be a struggle

At the prices, the Brentford boss is my nap selection to not be in charge of the Bees come the end of the season.

The most obvious reason is that Second Season Syndrome comes into play massively for clubs that were promoted from the Championship and defied the odds to stay up in their first season in the Premier League.

We have two obvious recent examples. On their return to the top flight, Sheffield United did brilliantly to finish ninth in the table in 2019-20 under Chris Wilder. The following season the Blades finished rock bottom and Wilder was sacked.

And it was a similar story for Leeds in 2020-21 under Marcelo Bielsa. Leeds defied the doubters to finish ninth in the table, yet in the season that followed they were in a season-long relegation battle and Bielsa was sacked.

So the warning signs are there for Thomas Frank and Brentford.

The Bees did remarkably well to finish 13th last season - four places worse off than Sheff Utd and Leeds may I add, who went on to sack their manager the following season - and without Christian Eriksen for this campaign, I envisage a season of struggle (23/10 to be relegated) and the boss getting the boot.

Marco Silva (8/11) - We've been here before

Marco Silva has history when it comes to sackings and resignations from Premier League clubs. In fact he's managed three clubs in the top flight, resigned from one of them and was sacked by the other two!

True, Silva resigned at the end of the season from Hull, immediately after they were relegated, and he did survive one season with Everton when guiding them to an eighth-place finish, but he was sacked the following season from the Toffees when 18th in the table and two years prior he'd been sacked mid-season by Watford.

But not only does Silva have history, so too do Fulham. They've been immediately relegated the last two times they've been promoted to the Premier League and I see this season being no different.

The Cottagers are 11/10 in the Relegation market - a good bet in itself - and once they do start to struggle I don't see it being too long before Silva leaves his fourth Premier League club.

Frank Lampard (4/9) - Signs not good for Everton

Frank Lampard is the shortest price manager in the list not to be in charge of his club at the end of the season, and it's very easy to see why.

The former Chelsea boss - he was sacked from the Blues may I add - far from made an impression at Goodison Park last season, and though he ultimately achieved the main task expected of him, I dare say the Everton board were hoping for a little more than avoiding relegation with just a few games to spare.

Going into this season Everton look a weaker team. They've lost Richarlison, could lose other big names, and they have no money to spend.

And just last week the Toffees lost 4-0 to Minnesota United in a pre-season friendly, prompting Lampard to warn of another season of struggle ahead. It's as if he wants out before the campaign has even started!

Jesse Marsch (8/11) - Leeds boss to receive his Marsching orders

If there's one thing we can be confident about ahead of this season then it's that if the Leeds United board are willing to sack fan-favourite Marcelo Bielsa with the club at the wrong end of the table, then they'll have no hesitation whatsoever giving Jesse Marsch the boot if he struggles.

So the simple question has to be, will Leeds struggle this term?

According to the Relegation market the answer is a resounding yes. Leeds are just 23/10 to go down, the joint fourth fancied club of all 20 Premier League outfits, and if the market looks like being proved correct as the season goes on then I just don't see how Marsch keeps his job.

Leeds have lost arguably their two most influential players - Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha - and it's impossible to envisage any potential arrivals stepping into those players' shoes, not immediately anyway.

The one thing that might give Marsch a bit more time is that expectations won't be as high at the start of this season as they were 12 months ago, but by the same token, there's no way the Leeds board will fail to act if the American looks like he's guiding the club to relegation.

Back Thomas Frank, Marco Silva, Frank Lampard and Jesse Marsch all to Leave their Club before the Final Day of the Season @

11.64

***

If you think you can build your own multiples ahead of the season, take a look at a range of ante-post markets on offer before the Premier League season kicks off, with the ability to combine different player and manager specials here.