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Premier League Golden Boot 2022-23: Rating the leading 25 contenders

Paul Higham
29 July 2022
10:00 min read

Son was a surprise joint Golden Boot winner - can he go one better?

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Paul Higham profiles all the big names in the Premier League Golden Boot market, with some special value side bets for those further down the list...

"It's now six straight seasons with at least 12 league goals and efforts of 17 and then 23 in the last two show a trend that may well continue with Kane the more likely to drop deeper but also still get more attention from opposing defences."

Erling Haaland is the clear favourite in the Top Goalscorer market, but there are plenty of contenders lining up behind him should he not hit the ground running.

And that's the key - the Norwegian could score a truck load of goals, he should rip Premier League defences apart, but there's always that small doubt that it may not go his way.

So there are some big odds out there and also some interesting side markets in total player goals and shots on target that could provide us with some value.

So let's look at the players in the running, along with their total league goals mark this season (which they're all priced up at evens to eclipse).

Premier League new boy heads the market leaders

Erling Haaland 13/5

Evens to score 24 goals or more

The clear favourite despite never kicking a ball in the Premier League, Haaland is expected to come to England and plunder a huge amount of goals after smacking them in left, right and centre for Dortmund; 62 in 67 Bundesliga games to be precise, while in the Champions League he's even better having scored 23 in 19 in Europe's premier competition.

Haaland's huge frame and bulldozing style suggest he could fit right in and the sheer amount of chances City create mean he should fill his boots. Only injuries and Pep Guardiola saving him for the latter stages in Europe could slow him down.

Mohamed Salah 9/2

Evens to score 23 goals or more

The phenom is back at Anfield with a new contract in his back pocket and a new challenge to rise to with the arrival of Haaland at City and the departure of Sadio Mane from Liverpool.

Mo Salah solo 2 1280.jpg

A total of 118 goals in 180 league games for the Reds says it all, as he's claimed at least a share of the Golden Boot in three of his five seasons with Jurgen Klopp's side. A negative would be just four goals in his last 11 league games last season as his form dipped dramatically after AFCON, but like Haaland there's no World Cup in the middle of this season for Egypt so the top two in the market will have a mid-season break.

Salah came firing out of the blocks last season, scoring 10 in 9, so if you're in his camp he's worth backing early as his odds will tumble if getting another quick start. Oh, and you can put your house on him scoring in Liverpool's opener at Fulham - as he's scored on the opening day in all five seasons at Anfield.

Harry Kane 5/1

Evens to score 21 goals or more

The England captain had his joint-lowest league total of 17 last season and by far his worst goals per 90-minutes output since he became a Spurs regular. We have mitigating circumstances though with his on-off move to Man City and a mid-season change of manager undoubtedly putting the breaks on his scoring run - and while all this was happening he continued to bang them in for England.

Antonio Conte now has his feet under the table and new signings in his dressing room so Spurs should be a threat this season, and with BFF Son Heung-min still there then Kane should be back to 20-plus goals again. Five goals in his last five league games last season suggest Kane's still a threat in this market.

Jesus the best backed outside of the top three

Gabriel Jesus 11/1

Evens to score 15 goals or more

A really interesting signing for Arsenal, with the big question being how will Jesus react to now being the main man for his team? He's had mixed results the last three years when he's made 21, 22 and 21 starts - scoring 14 in the first of those but then just nine and eight the last two seasons and vastly inferior scoring rates than previous years.

Playing out wide played a part in that, and even Jesus himself has said he's comfortable as a wide forward, so it'll be interesting to see if Mikel Arteta tries to get him more into the central striker role.

His overall league scoring average for City was around a goal every other game - which fits in with his record of 40 goals from 78 starts when playing centrally. So if he can settle into that central role then with the creativity around him he should get over his mark of 15, but just fall short of the magic 20 number.

Son Heung-min 13/1

Evens to score 17 goals or more

Last season's joint Golden Boot winner - Son is officially no longer an underrated Spurs player and is now among the real big-hitters expected to challenge.

He went berserk in the second half of last season, scoring 14 of his 23 goals in the last 14 games and almost pipping Salah to the title with two in the final game at Norwich - and all without scoring a single penalty.

It's now six straight seasons with at least 12 league goals and efforts of 17 and then 23 in the last two show a trend that may well continue with Kane the more likely to drop deeper but also still get more attention from opposing defences. The arrival of Richarlison may also mean the odd rest day for Kane with Son proving to be an absolute machine in terms of fitness.

Darwin Nunez 14/1

Evens to score 15 goals or more

The 23-year-old has already seen what it's like being a big-priced Liverpool signing. He was mocked as the "Uruguayan Andy Carroll" after missing a sitter on his debut, then was crowned as the next Luis Suarez after a four-goal haul in a friendly. The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle but the money has been coming in for a man aptly named spearheading the evolution of Klopp's famed front three at Anfield.

He's a different breed to what the Reds have had recently - and although he's the No.9 billed as Haaland's big rival, I'm not sure he'll play as many games as the man down the road in Manchester.

Klopp's working on a new attacking style, possibly a 4-2-3-1, and with Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz also in the mix Nunez may not get the workload to challenge the big favourites - at least not this season. His six goals in 10 Champions League games is a plus, but he's still a bit of a work in progress and he may even struggle to meet his under/over mark of 15 in his debut Premier League season.

Cristiano Ronaldo 17/1

Love him or hate him, you have to respect a man with his sheer weight of goals over such a prolonged period of time - it's quite clear with Ronaldo that if he plays he will score goals. That IF is getting bigger though due to his age and appetite to remain at Man Utd and slum it in the Europa League, which the great man no doubt thinks will hurt his Champions League pedigree.

Ronaldo knee slide corner flag 1280.jpg

Bagging 18 in last season's Man Utd team, with only three of those being pens, was some effort, and you'd imagine that even just some slight improvement from Erik ten Hag will see Ronaldo get in and around 20 goals, but there's just a few too many question marks to back him right now. A full season of Ronaldo though could make his odds seem a gift.

Raheem Sterling 22/1

Evens to score 14 goals or more

It's been two so-so season in terms of goals for Sterling after three terrific ones that yielded 18, 17 and 20 league goals. A switch to Chelsea should do him good and the one thing Thomas Tuchel was missing time and time again last season was someone to put the ball in the back of the net.

With plenty of runners and neat and tidy build-up players, Sterling can make those back-post runs he did at City and could well get near his best of 20 goals given a full season run.

He hit 13 last season, two more than any Chelsea player despite being in and out of the City side, so being back in London and likely a first choice, he should get 14 minimum and have a sneaky each-way shout overall.

He's even money to have 35 shots on target - he only had 25 last season but at an average of one every 90 minutes so that tells you he should be able to bring that one home.

The bet I like for him though is the 9/4 on him scoring a hat-trick this season, as Chelsea will batter a few teams this season. Sterling's had four league hat-tricks in his career, the same as Salah, with only Kane having more so he can fill his boots when the team gets on a roll.

Shots and number of goals the best way to play some of the outsiders

Luis Diaz 25/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

The Colombian made a huge splash as a January signing from Porto, and he's now likely the permanent left-sided forward replacement for Mane in the Liverpool front three. He never quite turned his effort, energy and ability into goals last season though, with four goals scored but many more left out there with missed chances, so he needs to sharpen up on his finishing.

He's got the look of a provider more than a scorer, but the way Liverpool play anyone playing up there will get chances. 13 goals on his under/over looks about right, but the 16/1 on him having 50+ shots on target this season looks like a big price. Diaz hit the target 14 times in the equivalent of 10.6 league games last season from 38 attempts - so if you extrapolate that for a full season, with a slight improvement in accuracy then he could go close.

It's rarely that simple but for a first-choice starter in a top team who loves to shoot, it's a nice price for a fun side bet.

Diogo Jota 33/1

Evens to score 15 goals or more

With Luis Diaz arguably one of the first names on the team sheet now, Diogo Jota may not get as many minutes as he'd like this term - but he's proved that he can be deadly when he gets on the pitch. He failed to score in his last seven league games in a slightly disappointing end to the campaign, but he still netted 15 league goals for the Reds including six in seven during a hot streak in November.

He only scored one less than Mane in the league last season, at a slightly better rate, so with enough game time he could eclipse last year's total and this year's under/over mark.

Jamie Vardy 33/1

Evens to score 14 goals or more

It's an eye-catching price for Vardy that's solely related to his fitness levels, as when he's on the pitch we know that he scores goals for fun. He had his problems last season and only played the equivalent of just over 20 games in terms of pure minutes - yet still managed to bag 15 without one single penalty.

His scoring rate of a goal every 120 minutes was exactly the same as Salah's as the joint-best of the top marksmen, so if you throw in a few more games and the more customary spot-kicks then we must have a live outsider in the Leicester man. Even last season he got over 14 so I'd back him to do that again, while 9/1 for 20 goals is tempting but again a risk due to his fitness.

Callum Wilson 40/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

Fourteen league goals is his best tally, while at Bournemouth, and he got 12 two seasons ago and eight last year, BUT this is a Newcastle side who are loaded and on the up, and Wilson has operated at a goal every two games level with the Magpies, even before Eddie Howe and the Saudi billions came in. He could set a new best this season.

Kevin De Bruyne 40/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

Kevin de Bruyne and Bernardo Silva 1280.jpg

The brilliant Belgian smashed in a career-best 15 league goals last season without City playing with a striker. Haaland could well pinch some goals off him, but he could also open up a lot more space for him in and around the edge of the box, and win a load of free kicks too. He'll get 13 goals easy.

Patrick Bamford 40/1

Evens to score 12 league goals or more

This could be a great bounce back story, and I hope it is as Bamford had horrible injury problems last season after scoring 17 a year earlier in Leeds' triumphant return campaign. Leeds still created chances last season so if he's back fit he can put a few away again.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin 40/1

Evens to score 13+ league goals

A similar story to Bamford with Calvert-Lewin having his injury problems last season, which no doubt contributed to Everton's struggles. With 13 and 16 goals the two season before he can score at this level and if fit, Frank Lampard should build his team around him supplying the bullets for DCL to fire.

Alexsandar Mitrovic 40/1

Evens to score 13 or more league goals

Aleksandar Mitrovic.jpg

He's got 24 goals in 72 Premier League games across his four seasons, and after his wonderful 43-goal haul in last year's Championship perhaps this is the time for his breakthrough. It'll be tough again but he should get some joy.

Timo Werner 40/1

Evens to score eight or more league goals

With Lukaku out and Sterling in it could mean Werner battles it out with Kai Havertz (55/1) for a central spot. Werner has only managed 10 league goals in two seasons at Stamford Bridge but 78 in 118 games for RB Leipzig shows he can score goals. He should be able to get to double figures this year.

Back Werner 8+ league goals @ Evens

Jarrod Bowen 40/1

Evens to score 11 goals or more

Twelve goals and 10 assists was a fantastic return from a long and draining season for Bowen, who rightly got into the England squad as a result. He can play anywhere along the front line and shoot with either foot.

He had 33 shots on target last year - and only needs to get close to that to land the money on an interesting shots bet for him. He may struggle to replicate his goals tally though.

Ivan Toney 40/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

There's a big danger Brentford get his by the "Sophomore Slump" in the second Premier League season, and five of his 12 goals last year did come from the spot. His goals mark is a touch high for me considering, but if he does struggle he'll keep on shooting and although his mark of his is six more than his 24 from last year, he had 83 efforts so a bit more accuracy can land it.

Raul Jimenez 60/1

Evens to score 11 goals or more

While we're on redemption stories, could Raul Jimenez finally get his mojo back after that horror head injury? He's had 13 and 17-goal seasons as one of the best No.9s in the league previously but has struggled for obvious reasons since.

Riyad Mahrez 90/1

Evens to score 12 goals or more

Mahrez scored 11 league goals last season as an almost afterthought at times, with his eye-popping rate of a goal every 136 minutes better than Ronaldo - and in fact better than anyone bar Salah, Vardy and Son. Sterling has gone so he could actually get more game time, meaning you should be all over his 12-goal mark.

Back Mahrez 12+ league goals @ Evens

Wilfried Zaha 90/1

Evens to score 11 goals or more

What's Zaha doing on the list I hear you cry? Well, it may surprise to know he bagged 14 goals last season, it certainly surprised me and although five of those were pens he's a good bet to get at least 11 goals this time around. Palace have good skill players so the spot-kicks should keep on coming if nothing else.

Back Zaha 11+ league goals @ Evens

Mason Mount 100/1

Evens to score 9 goals or more

Chelsea's best player last season with 11 goals and 10 assists in the league, I wouldn't fear Sterling joining and taking his place as he's a Tuchel favourite and having his England colleague there could help. I think he could actually score more than last season so will happily back him to get double figures at a nice price.

Roberto Firmino 150/1

Evens to score 9 or more league goals

Once the mainstay of the Liverpool front three, the glue that held it all together, Firmino is now relegated to a bit-part role, although it could be an important one if he's fit enough this season.

Roberto Firmino 1280 Spurs v Liverpool.JPG

You'd think Nunez, Jota and Diaz are all ahead of him in the pecking order, but there's the intriguing prospect of Firmino playing in a deeper role in a new system. Whichever way you slice it though, he's not a danger to the Golden Boot contenders.

Back Firmino to score 9+ league goals at Evens

James Maddison 250/1

Evens to score 9 or more league goals

Maddison and Harvey Barnes pick up the goal scoring slack in and around Vardy, with the former Norwich man having his best league return last year with 12. Both Maddison and Barnes should eclipse nine this season with Maddison a nice price to reach double figures

Back Maddison 10+ league goals at 6/4

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Market rules

	Back	Lay
Erling Haaland
Mohamed Salah
Harry Kane
Darwin Nunez
Gabriel Jesus
Son-Heung Min
Aleksandar Mitrovic
Cristiano Ronaldo
Luis Diaz
Jamie Vardy
Callum Wilson
Raheem Sterling
Julian Alvarez
Kai Havertz
Jarrod Bowen
Diogo Jota
Patrick Bamford
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Kevin De Bruyne
Eddie Nketiah
Anthony Martial
Ollie Watkins
Bruno Fernandes
Ivan Toney
Phil Foden
Timo Werner
Danny Ings
Michail Antonio

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Premier League new boy heads the market leaders

Erling Haaland 13/5

Evens to score 24 goals or more

Mohamed Salah 9/2

Evens to score 23 goals or more

Harry Kane 5/1

Evens to score 21 goals or more

Jesus the best backed outside of the top three

Gabriel Jesus 11/1

Evens to score 15 goals or more

Son Heung-min 13/1

Evens to score 17 goals or more

Darwin Nunez 14/1

Evens to score 15 goals or more

Cristiano Ronaldo 17/1

Raheem Sterling 22/1

Evens to score 14 goals or more

Shots and number of goals the best way to play some of the outsiders

Luis Diaz 25/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

Diogo Jota 33/1

Evens to score 15 goals or more

Jamie Vardy 33/1

Evens to score 14 goals or more

Callum Wilson 40/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

Kevin De Bruyne 40/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

Patrick Bamford 40/1

Evens to score 12 league goals or more

Dominic Calvert-Lewin 40/1

Evens to score 13+ league goals

Alexsandar Mitrovic 40/1

Evens to score 13 or more league goals

Timo Werner 40/1

Evens to score eight or more league goals

Jarrod Bowen 40/1

Evens to score 11 goals or more

Ivan Toney 40/1

Evens to score 13 goals or more

Raul Jimenez 60/1

Evens to score 11 goals or more

Riyad Mahrez 90/1

Evens to score 12 goals or more

Wilfried Zaha 90/1

Evens to score 11 goals or more

Mason Mount 100/1

Evens to score 9 goals or more

Roberto Firmino 150/1

Evens to score 9 or more league goals

James Maddison 250/1

Evens to score 9 or more league goals

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