Premier League: Arsenal and Brighton to secure derby spoils in Gameweek 6

Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal
Arsenal warmed up for the derby with a comfortable League Cup win

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as the top four starts to take shape...

"Arsenal have momentum in their favour against a Spurs side who have looked especially poor in their last two league matches, though derbies don't always play by the rules of momentum."

City to draw first blood in title battle

Chelsea v Manchester City
Saturday, 12:30
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Manchester City were the last visiting team to beat Frank Lampard's Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and now they have the chance to become the first this season to get the better of Thomas Tuchel's Blues in the league. It's a battle between the team atop the league and the one with the best expected goal difference, and City's average of just 0.56 xGA per game this season - after 0.87 xGA away from home last term - is enough to give them a slight edge.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 16.0015/1

United to continue devastating run at home to Villa

Manchester United v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00
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Manchester United's last nine games at home to Aston Villa have brought eight wins and one draw, though the point for Dean Smith's side came as recently as 2019. Smith's men are coming off a flattering 3-0 scoreline at home to Everton, while Ole Gunnar Solskjær's hosts can build on the momentum brought by David de Gea's late penalty save last weekend (ignoring the cup defeat for a team with 11 changes) and keep themselves in touch with two of their title rivals facing off in west London.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Norwich to suffer another loss

Everton v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00
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Things went from bad to worse for Norwich in midweek as they missed a penalty en route to a Carabao Cup elimination against a weakened Liverpool team, and manager Daniel Farke is likely to be feeling the pressure. Opponents Everton aren't in the best of form themselves, but offered plenty going forward in their last home match and will feel they can add to their goal tally against visitors averaging 2.38 xGA per game this season.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.6015/2

West Ham to eke out a win at Elland Road

Leeds United v West Ham United
Saturday, 15:00
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West Ham turned a narrow xG edge into a win at Elland Road last season, and Infogol's model makes them slight favourites to repeat the trick against Leeds on Saturday. The hosts will be sweating on the fitness of Raphinha, whose goal guaranteed a deserved point against Newcastle last time out, while West Ham's efforts to rebound from late pain against Man Utd may hinge on Michail Antonio's return from suspension.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2

Leicester to follow cup with with another victory

Leicester City v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00
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Last week's defeat at Brighton has left Leicester six points outside the top four as they chase an improvement on last season's fifth-place finish, and a home meeting with Burnley is one they'll feel they need to win. The Foxes won the corresponding fixture 4-2 last season, though the xG numbers pointed to a far more even contest, and they'll hope the Clarets' slow start on the road continues after two defeats and an average of 2.3x GA per game in their first two.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Brendan Rodgers, Leicester.jpg

Newcastle to claim maiden win

Watford v Newcastle United
Saturday, 15:00
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After a spirited comeback against Leeds United last week, Newcastle will hope they can generate some league momentum at a ground where they lost at the tail end of the 2019-20 season. The visitors will still be without the injured Callum Wilson, but Infogol's model makes them narrow favourites over a Watford team coming off a surprise Carabao Cup exit, in a game which could easily go either way.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 19.0018/1

Liverpool to win on first trip to Brentford Community Stadium

Brentford v Liverpool
Saturday, 17:30
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Liverpool appear to have hit their stride again, but they'll face a challenge on Saturday against a Brentford side who have surprised some with their defensive record post-promotion. The Reds have the league's best away xGF at this early stage, but only Manchester City have a better overall xGA average than the 0.86 boasted by Thomas Frank's side. Despite all this, though, Infogol anticipates the visitors' firepower to see them prevail after a number of attacking players were rested in midweek.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-3 @ 12.0011/1

Saints to extend unbeaten run

Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday, 14:00
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Just one point separates Southampton and Wolves going into Sunday's game, and both teams will know there's room for improvement after some encouraging performances but discouraging results. Successive goalless draws demonstrated a solidity not everyone expected from Ralph Hasenhüttl's side, and Infogol's model makes them narrow favourites against a Wolves side who won as St Mary's last term but have struggled to turn good chances into goals this time around.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 14.50

Arsenal to claim victory in North London Derby

Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, 16:30
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Arsenal have momentum in their favour against a Spurs side who have looked especially poor in their last two league matches, though derbies don't always play by the rules of momentum. The Gunners won the corresponding game last season, with Spurs' lack of attacking ambition perhaps playing a role in José Mourinho's departure just weeks later, and Infogol considers a repeat the most likely outcome.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2 or the 1-1 @ 7.006/1

Brighton to keep hold of top-four spot

Crystal Palace v Brighton & Hove Albion
Monday, 20:00
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The M23 Derby arrives with Palace and Brighton boasting similar xG records but vastly different points totals, and Infogol's model favours the visitors to climb 10 points clear of Patrick Vieira's men with a win. Last season's meeting saw Palace score with their only shot and almost hold out for victory, but Graham Potter's visitors have been better at converting their chances this term to ensure they begin this gameweek in the top four.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 13.0012/1

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