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Villa set to be top-flight's high-achievers
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City to return to ruthless ways
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Crystal Palace a surprise shout to drop
Before a ball has been kicked in anger or a single dive has been executed, it can be hard to make sense of a pristine new Premier League season.
Friendlies tell us little while transfers offer up hints, but only that. Optimism and pessimism vie for our attention, both lacking substance on closer inspection.
Yet with antepost betting offering up such great value it would be quite wrong to play wait and see.
It's time to go with our guts.
Short odds Selections
Arsenal Top 4 Finish, Aston Villa Top Half Finish, and Sheff Utd to be relegated @ 15/82.88
Having heavily invested in a squad that topped the table for 93% of last season, the Gunners have their sights firmly fixed on a title charge. Whether they achieve that aim or not, it should comfortably see them secure a top four spot, a feat they managed with five games to spare last time out.
Villa meanwhile were reimagined and rejuvenated under Unai Emery, the Spaniard taking a team with real relegation concerns and transforming them into top six challengers.
Impressively, the Villans scored in all-but-two of Emery's 27 games in charge and extending their 1.9 PPG across the whole season would have placed them fourth.
Of course, it's never as straightforward as that, but a trio of excellent signings in Pau Torres, Youri Tielemans and Moussa Diaby bode well for further progress.
Which leaves us with the Blades who will sorely miss Tommy Doyle and James McAtee and don't have the budget to bring in replacements of the same ilk.
Unless Paul Heckingbottom pulls off miracles in the loan market, the newbies face ten months of swimming against the tide.
3900 or more total corners to be taken in the EPL @ 4/51.80
In the past couple of seasons, the overall corner counts have flirted with the 3900 mark. In 2021/22 it was 3857. Last season it was 3830.
A record number of goals scored from corners last term, however, suggests a notable increase can be anticipated as coaches focus more on this profitable set-piece and less so on the securement of free-kicks.
Across 2022/23, goals from corners made up 13.9% of every goal scored, a 21st century high. Free-kicks were down by 11.
Moreover, in Burnley and Luton, the Premier League now possesses two corner-kings from the Championship, each averaging 5.8 per game last year. Their figures would have pitched them easily in the top half of the top-flight table for corners in any recent campaign.
Mid-range Selections
Man City to win by 5 or more goals at least 5 times in the EPL @ 13/27.50
In Pep Guardiola's 266 league games in charge of the Blues they have averaged 2.4 goals per game, an astounding level of prolificacy - not to mention consistency - that has resulted in City topping the table for goal-scoring in six of the Catalan's seven years.
Inevitably too, it's led to a smorgasbord of four and five-goal drubbings.
Last season, it should be said, their ruthlessness over 90 minutes did drop-off, with only one side vanquished by a hatful, but don't let that put you off, not when it's factored in why.
For much of their treble-winning campaign, City were learning to accommodate Erling Haaland and adjusting to a new way of breaking down opponents, while their Champions League quest was also a consideration. On numerous occasions teams were there for the taking but the champions went into cruise control, aware of their European commitments soon after.
With that huge itch scratched expect the likes of Luton and Sheffield United to suffer accordingly, especially as their attacking mandate is now fully formulated.
City have beaten five or more opponents by a margin of five-plus goals on three previous occasions (in 17/18, 18/19 and 19/20). It's really not a stretch to suggest they can do it again.
Tottenham Top 6 Finish and Bournemouth & Luton relegated 10/111.00
It's not an enormous stretch either to suggest that Spurs can be reborn under new gaffer Ange Postecoglou, though the almost nailed-on sale of Harry Kane to Bayern Munich does throw up doubts. The England international has scored or assisted 41.4% of Tottenham's league goal-haul over the last nine years.
Should Kane be even halfway replaced however, don't rule out the attack-minded Aussie lighting a fire in North London and it's pertinent too that Spurs have finished inside the top six twice in recent seasons despite being mired in chaos and crisis.
As for Luton, if we dispense with any degree of romanticism it's fair to say they have it all to do from now until May. The Hatters' 3/101.30 odds to immediately drop tells its own sorry tale.
Then there's Bournemouth, a side set to be dramatically remodeled under Andoni Iraola, a high-risk appointment who could just as easily turn the Cherries into everyone's second favourite team, bruising the top ten in the process, or spectacularly implode. At this juncture that feels like a coin-flip.
Long shot Selections
Tottenham Top Four Finish and Crystal Palace to be relegated @ 20/121.00
In for a penny.
If we're going to back the Postecoglou era to succeed then top four is well within Tottenham's scope, the club securing Champions League football seven times in the last 14 years.
Moreover, whereas in past seasons the top four was the exclusive preserve of the established elite, it now rewards the avoidance of failure as much as sustained excellence.
If Spurs gel quickly, they are a viable contender for sure.
Conversely, at Selhurst Park gloom and doom appears to be setting in, the Eagles having already lost their talisman Wilfried Zaha and losing the battle to keep Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze.
When their terrific trio struggled for form last season, Palace couldn't buy a goal, scoring every 247 minutes from the start of 2023 to mid-March. An extension of that doesn't bear thinking about.
Arsenal and Liverpool each to score 80+ league goals & Chelsea and Tottenham each to score 70+ league goals @ 25/126.00
So much of this bet depends on Chelsea's ability to almost double their meagre goal-tally from last season, their worst return since 1924.
The summer purchases of Nicolas Jackson and Christopher Nkunku help make that a distinct possibility, each more than capable of racking up 15-plus.
Add in a fresh start under Mauricio Pochettino and the Blues have the ways and means to reach 70 with relative ease. In 2021/22, they fired 76 while finishing a distant third.
The others meanwhile sort of take care of themselves, with Arsenal blasting 88 last term and Spurs hitting 70. The only improvement needed is from Liverpool, who require five more than last season and with Drawin Nunez better acclimatized to English football and Luis Diaz back to full fitness that feels conceivable.
Over to you Chelsea.