Premier League Acca: Man City to move further clear at the top

• Arsenal to lose further ground

• Bajcetic key to defeating Newcastle

• Sabitzer-Fred a worry for United

Villa back six can further dent Arsenal

Aston Villa v Arsenal
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Arsenal have won just two of their last six matches and, based on the brittleness and error-strewn nature of their second half performance against Manchester City, are heading into a slump that highlights how much reliance they place on the same few players. Unfortunately, there is a good chance it will continue against an Aston Villa side that are relatively similar to Brentford and Everton.

Unai Emery will sit Villa in a very deep 4-4-2 that looks more like a 6-2-2, with the wide midfielders getting tight to Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli while the box midfield blunts Martin Odegaard and Granit Xhaka. Villa's shape should stop Arsenal chiefly because Mikel Arteta's system does not deploy traditional full-backs, and with no overlappers they can look too narrow and one-dimensional against purely defensive teams.

But Arsenal are unlikely to concede many chances. Villa's counter-attacking threat has not been very good recently, and the split-striker system of Leon Bailey and Ollie Watkins won't be given anything by the visitors' powerful centre-backs. Nevertheless it should be a low-scoring game and another frustrating one for the Gunners.

Back double chance Villa/draw at 10/11

Grealish-Silva partnership too much for Forest

Nottingham Forest v Man City
Saturday, 15:00

This won't be a repeat of the 6-0 win for Manchester City at the Etihad earlier this season. Forest have changed a lot since then and Steve Cooper will happily deploy a deeper line in his diamond 4-4-2 with the aim to surround Rodri and Bernardo Silva to slow Man City down for long periods of the game. It might work for a time, but there is an increasing directness to Pep Guardiola's football of late that suggests they will get the job done.

Moving Bernardo Silva into a left-back/centre-mid role as part of a 3-2-2-3 is one of the weirder things Guardiola has done as City manager and although it didn't work very well against Arsenal it is a good solution when facing more defensive teams. As Villa found out at the weekend, Silva's intelligence means he can also act like an overlapping full-back at the same time, giving Jack Grealish the support he has been missing.

Silva and Grealish can, together, simply overwhelm Serge Aurier, especially during moments when Forest have not yet set themselves into a deep blockade. Man City are increasingly happy to attack quickly to create these scenarios, and therefore via their two left wingers - plus Kevin de Bruyne - Man City should have more than enough to dispatch of Forest.

Back Man City to win with a -1 handicap at 10/11

Bajcetic to control crowded midfield

Newcastle v Liverpool
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Liverpool's victory in the Merseyside Derby might be a turning point in their season, such was the ferocious energy in their performance and the comparisons to the first wave of Jurgen Klopp at Anfield: chaotic, fearless, and ready to push teams into retreat. Part of the reason they were able to rouse themselves was the brilliant performance in midfield from 18-year-old Stefan Bajcetic, who will again be crucial this weekend.

Bajcetic highlighted Liverpool's need to return to workmanlike central midfielders in order to release the maverick attacking qualities in their new front three, and that is particularly important when facing an ultra-narrow Newcastle United. Eddie Howe instructs his wingers to cut infield whenever possible, attacking centrally to create space for the full-backs, but it hs led to just three goals scored in their last six Premier League matches.

Bajectic's tackling can stamp out any danger here, setting Liverpool up for quick transitions - which they will need to bypass the league's most stubborn defence. Klopp's side can create unpredictability and harness that chaos, unlocking Newcastle's usual reserved nature and creating the foundation for an important Liverpool win in the race for the top four.

Back Liverpool to win at 9/5

Sabitzer and Fred key to high-scoring game

Man Utd v Leicester
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Leicester City league matches have averaged 3.5 goals per game in 2023, reflecting the way in which Brendan Rodgers has awoken his attacking players while failing to improve on a defence that is consistently undermined by sloppy mistakes and general disorganisation. In short, he has brought back the quick-transitioning Leicester, only to find doing so leaves them highly vulnerable on the break.

Man Utd should be able to manage this contest and out-score the visitors, with Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho running straight at a panicky Leicester defence that is receiving poor quality support from the defensive midfielders. However, the performances of Fred and Marcel Sabitzer last weekend showed what United are missing without their first choice midfielders; both were static, slowing Man Utd down dramatically before Erik ten Hag introduced some directness into the back line.

If Sabitzer and Fred keep shuffling awkwardly together then James Maddison and Harvey Barnes - dipping infield - will anticipate great success bursting into space after a turnover of possession. The most likely outcome is an entertaining and high-scoring game with United just about edging it.

Back Man Utd to win and BTTS at 2/1