Premier League Acca: Liverpool to gain ground in top four race

• Barnes and Maddison can dent Arsenal

• Darwin to outmanouvre Clyne

• Man Utd to pounce on Newcastle nervousness

Barnes-Maddison revival a worry for Jorginho

Leicester City v Arsenal
Saturday, 15:00

Arsenal are hopeful of Thomas Partey returning this weekend but he is unlikely to be rushed back, which means Jorginho could start again - undermining the fine-tuning of Mikel Arteta's central midfield. Without Partey there is simply more space between the lines; Jorginho has always struggled to cut off passing lanes, and he often gets caught running backwards as passes ghost past him.

This is particularly alarming for the trip to Leicester City, where James Maddison and Harvey Barnes are combining in the left-centre space very well. Brendan Rodgers' explosive transitions have returned, with Leicester emphasising narrowness in attack via sharp forward passing in precisely the area Jorginho will be leaving open. This is made worse by Ben White's hesitancy here compared with the anticipation of Oleksandr Zinchenko on the other side.

Arsenal have conceded five goals in the last two games, and twice on the counter-attack against Aston Villa. They are clearly vulnerable to what Leicester will bring, although with confidence back up after the comeback at Villa Park Arsenal should still be able to create numerous chances against a Leicester defence that has been shaky all season. There will be goals in this one, but it could swing either way.

Back over 3.5 goals at 13/8

Darwin to pierce Palace weak spot

Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Saturday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Crystal Palace are on a quietly horrendous run, without a win in eight matches in all competitions and scoring a meagre five goals in that time. The absence of Wilfried Zaha has not helped, but more generally it seems Patrick Vieira's ideas are running out of steam as Palace, without Conor Gallagher running the show, feel a little empty: light on attacking combinations and too conservative in style.

Liverpool don't need to worry about the weakness of their own defensive performances this season, then, and can anticipate blowing Palace away with another furiously vertical display like the ones we saw against Everton and Newcastle. These resulted from the hard tackling of Stefan Bajcetic coupled with longer passing up to Darwin Nunez.

Darwin is the key player on Saturday because he will be running in the spaces around Nathaniel Clyne, who is clearly the weakest member of the Palace team. In recent games Kaoru Mitoma and Marcus Rashford have found it easy to attack this flank. Darwin can clatter his way to an important Liverpool win.

Back Liverpool to win with a -1 handicap at 2/1

Goalless draw to help neither manager

Tottenham v Chelsea
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Antonio Conte and Graham Potter are both under pressure and although they have entirely opposing philosophies on how football should be played they are in trouble for surprisingly similar reasons. Tottenham sit deep and look disconnected, rarely creating chances or scoring goals. Chelsea try to attack from high up the pitch but seem infected by Potter syndrome and are unable to convert any chances they create.

A 0-0 beckons. Spurs will happily try to frustrate Chelsea by sitting in a low block throughout the match, with their five defenders across the back easily dominating their own third as Kai Havertz and Joao Felix dance around in the pockets in front. Chelsea will need penetration and directness in this game, but while the players get used to each other we are seeing only short and simple passes. Hugo Lloris should get a clean sheet.

At the other end, Harry Kane looks to be the only Spurs player capable of producing anything, but without significant support - or a high number of bodies around him - Kane is unlikely to provide a winner against a Chelsea defence that has conceded a mere three goals in the last six matches.

Back the draw at 11/5

Ten Hag to copy Liverpool model with fast start

Man Utd v Newcastle
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Newcastle United will be nervous about the opportunity to win their first major silverware since 1955, while Manchester United - though highly motivated to kick-start the Erik ten Hag era - will be calm and collected about an EFL Cup final. That psychological difference is likely to tell over the 90 minutes, especially with Newcastle's form slowing down significantly over the last few weeks.

But it will be particularly important in the opening half an hour, when Man Utd will be keen to learn from Liverpool's example last weekend and race out of the blocks. Ten Hag has encouraged quick football in the transitions this season to release Marcus Rashford behind a high line during those chaotic moments when the ball is turned over, which is exactly how Liverpool put the game to bed. Newcastle will probably get caught out early on as they struggle to settle at Wembley.

What's more, Allan Saint-Maximin's return to the first team makes Newcastle more vulnerable to being attacked down their left, which is where Bruno Fernandes has been excelling recently. In a new right wing position, Fernandes drifts into the right half-space to find pockets in which to create, and Newcastle's Joe Willock should be over-powered here in the absence of tracking by Saint-Maximin.

Back Man Utd to win at 6/5

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