- Toney can cause issues out wide
- Newcastle transitions a threat to Sterling
- Emery counters should beat Brighton
Toney & Mbeumo to work full-backs
Man City v Brentford
Saturday, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1
Brentford's woeful form saw Thomas Frank dramatically change formation to a diamond 4-4-2 for the 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest last weekend, and amid the confusion they may - counter-intuitively - prefer to end the half-season with a simplified trip to the Etihad.
Here, Brentford will surely return to the rhythms of their 3-5-2, sitting back to absorb pressure and targeting their counter-attacks with Frank's usual method of direct balls up to his two strikers.
There is a very good chance that Erling Haaland and Kevin de Bruyne will find a way to outmanoeuvre the Brentford defence of course, although it is worth noting Man City are at their worst when facing a back five.
Opposition wing-backs are able to come out and meet De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan in the half-spaces without revealing defensive gaps for the wingers, and with Man City's full-backs coming inside into a congested central midfield it can make things constipated.
At the other end, the goal will no doubt be to get Bryan Mbeumo and Ivan Toney to peel wide. Joao Cancelo's suspension and Kyle Walker's injury means Man City are far more vulnerable down the flanks than usual, giving Brentford the slight chance of using their power on the counter-attack to cause problems. Brentford should cause a scare even if they don't win any points.
Back BTTS at 1.910/11
Almiron-led transitions to hit weak points
Newcastle v Chelsea
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Graham Potter's Chelsea have started to withdraw, playing too safely and with too many sideways passes, much like they did under Thomas Tuchel - a reflection of the lopsided squad, filled with direct players who don't fit the system. But worse than this, Potter's 3-5-2 is taking a long time to coach and his use of wingers as wing-backs is leaving Chelsea open in the transition.
That is good news for Newcastle United, who are one of the most emphatic breakaway teams in the country. Eddie Howe has coached electric transitions that filter through the progressive passing of Bruno Guimaraes, the dribbling of Joelinton, and the out-of-nowhere goalscoring form of Miguel Almiron. The right winger in particular should find joy against Raheem Sterling, who looks completely out of place as a left wing-back.
Newcastle's excellent hard-hitting press in the middle third of the pitch should see them pinch the ball in dangerous areas, because Chelsea are tentative as they learn Potter's methods and tend to dally on the ball in search of options. Once this happens, Almiron can be set away behind Sterling.
Back Newcastle to win at 2.35/4
Hard-pressing De Zerbi favours Emery approach
Brighton v Aston Villa
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Brighton are a more anarchic presence under new manager Roberto de Zerbi and while it has caught out several teams - most notably Chelsea in a 4-1 win - it is likely to prove to be too attacking an approach to cope with the tactical system deployed by Aston Villa's Unai Emery. Villa exemplified all the best qualities of an Emery team in their 3-1 win over Manchester United, suggesting they will be even more coherent after a full week of training.
Emery expects his teams to sit relatively deep, with minimal spaces between the lines, and then to break forward in high numbers with very specific moves. He coaches his players exactly where, when, and how to move on the counter to sprint behind the opponent, and by instructing his players to pass out dangerously from the back aims to draw out the opposition press in order to create artificial counters.
It worked against United thanks to the dribbling of Jacob Ramsey and the movement of Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey. With Brighton pushing high they may just play directly into the visitors' hands - especially with the Villa forwards up against Pascal Gross, being played out of position at right-back.
Back Villa to win at 4.216/5
Palhinha & Reed could flatten United
Fulham v Man Utd
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event
Erik ten Hag's team were outplayed by Aston Villa due largely to the presence of Donny van de Beek, who was not given the ball often enough by Casemiro and Christian Eriksen, and by Cristiano Ronaldo coming too short to receive possession. United were flat, unable to find any rhythm or move the ball with purpose - or clear passing options - in the final third.
Fulham are not the most effective defensively but Marco Silva has done well to create a compressed midblock that denies space in central midfield. Since United are one-dimensional out wide, especially with Anthony sidelined, the hosts' powerful midfield partnership of Paulhinha and Harrison Reed can shut United down and turn this into a cagey and low-energy match.
However, Fulham's weak spot is at right-back where Bobby Cordova-Reid can be vulnerable, and with Luke Shaw joining Marcus Rashford on this flank the visitors are likely to get chances. It will be a high-scoring game, even if Fulham are unable to hold on for a point.
Back over 3.5 goals at 2.5531/20