Premier League Acca: Chelsea to hold Man City in 44/1 four-fold

Saint-Maximin and Saka battle on the same flank

Arsenal v Newcastle
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

This is going to be an excellent game, even better than Arsenal's 4-2 win over a hard-pressing Brighton team who predictably let the game heave from end to end. Newcastle United have generally been more defensive against the bigger teams this season, as in the 1-0 defeat to Liverpool, although their strength on the counter-attack means this match should have a lot more action.

Allan Saint-Maximin is fit to start on the left flank, which is a help and a hindrance. He will lead the charge on the break in the moments when Arsenal's counter-press is broken by Bruno Guimaraes, distributing quickly via Joelinton to set Newcastle's dribblers away down the flank occupied by Ben White - too slow to deal with Saint-Maximin. However, the Frenchman's presence could leave Newcastle light on this flank when things swing the other way.

Bukayo Saka is unplayable of late and his interactions with Martin Odegaard on that side will, as always, be a major feature of Arsenal's play. It's possible Arsenal will be able to dominate here with left-back Dan Burn having too much to do, yet Odegaard's roaming near to Saka provides a chink of light in the right-centre space for Joelinton to break. It is in this zone that a high-scoring game will be decided.

Back over 2.5 goals at 5/6

Forest aggression can hit the flanks

Southampton v Nottingham Forest
Wednesday, 19:30

Nathan Jones has got off to a worrying start. He has spent the last six weeks enjoying a mini-pre-season to get his ideas across and yet it only took one defeat, 2-1 to Fulham, for him to throw out the 4-2-3-1 for a 3-4-2-1 - only to return to the former at half-time in the 3-1 loss to Brighton. Taking a trial-and-error approach to formations is something we associate with desperate managers at the end of a tenure, not the beginning.

His inexperience managing in the unique tactical environment of a bottom-half Premier League club is showing, and mixing badly with a very young squad. It leaves Southampton vulnerable to any team able to show aggression and assertiveness in their attacking football - which Nottingham Forest ought to be able to do in this six-pointer following their second-half performance against Chelsea.

Steve Cooper has gone into a very deep defensive formation since his new contract but it is time to open up a bit now that Forest have found a foothold. As soon as they pushed at Chelsea they dominated, providing a platform for a more attacking display at St. Mary's. Should Forest focus on quick distribution to Brennan Johnson and Taiwo Awoniyi they can target Jones's full-backs, who continue to look overstretched. Fulham scored twice from crosses, as did Brighton.

Back Forest to win at 14/5

Direct dribbling to hurt flat-footed Spurs

Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Tottenham are collapsing in on themselves, the weight of Antonio Conte's conservative midblock forcing them into a deep shape and creative death. It looks increasingly clear that his style of football no longer cuts it in a Premier League era of hard-pressing and territorial dominance among the big clubs and smaller counter-attacking teams who won't be drawn into Conte's trap by advancing up the pitch.

Crystal Palace are one of those teams. Patrick Vieira will happily concede territory here, although Spurs won't seize that initiative, instead creating an even game in which the dullness of Tottenham's system allows the hosts to drive head-first at them. The dribbling power of Michael Olise, Eberichi Eze, and Wilfried Zaha should be capable of wriggling through the cowering Spurs defence much in the way Aston Villa did with considerably slower players.

Spurs were stopped by Villa thanks to the hard work of John McGinn and Emiliano Buendia forming a back six to block Conte's wing-backs, and although Palace won't go quite so far the presence of the hard-working Jordan Ayew on the right should give supporters confidence. He will track Ivan Perisic effectively, neutralising Tottenham's only hope while Dejan Kulusevski is out.

Back double chance Palace/draw at 8/13

Potter will have intricate plan to shut game down

Chelsea v Man City
Thursday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Chelsea were dominated by Arsenal in a 1-0 defeat in November but Graham Potter had clearly deliberately planned to lose the possession battle. Considering just how often teams are stunting Man City with a simple defensive system, crowding the penalty area to isolate Erling Haaland, Chelsea will be happy to look like the weaker team on Thursday.

Potter is a detailed tactician who will come up with a very particular plan to stunt Pep Guardiola. We can anticipate Mason Mount in a hybrid role that includes man-marking Rodri in open play, while in a back three the wing-backs will tirelessly come to support against Riyad Mahrez and Jack Grealish. In the midfield battle, composure under pressure from Jorginho and Matteo Kovacic will be key to evading the Man City counter-press in a tight and restrictive match high on energy and low on chances.

Raheem Sterling is the only man with the speed to try to get behind Man City, and with Kai Havertz looking blunt it seems unlikely Chelsea will have the firepower to beat such a strong defence. The hosts' best chance of success is to hold out for a 0-0, and considering how disconnected Man City are looking at the moment that seems the most likely result.

Back the draw at 3/1