Premier League Acca Builder: Villa can stop Man City in 125/1 Sunday special

Alex Keble
20 May 2022
5:00 min read

Man City have not sealed the title just yet.

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Alex Keble provides a tactical preview of big weekend games in the Premier League and puts together a 120/1 acca which includes Man City being held by Villa...

"Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings will counter-attack together in behind the Man City high line, hoping to emulate what Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen did in West Ham’s 2-2 draw last weekend."

Set-pieces to send Leeds down

Brentford v Leeds
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Brentford's bullish and direct system, mixing tactically-intelligent passing triangles with long-balls up to Ivan Toney, is well set up to inflict damage on a Leeds United team that look increasingly confused under Jesse Marsch. Gone are some of the extremes of the Marcelo Bielsa era, but some haphazard pressing remains - and this should allow Brentford to dominate.

The second balls are likely to be picked up by the more astute team, especially with Leeds often pressing in ones and twos as they fumble to find the correct balance post-Bielsa. From here, Brentford will ease their way into attacking positions and win themselves the set-pieces needed to condemn Leeds to relegation.

Leeds have conceded the second most set-piece goals this season, with 18, while only Liverpool and Manchester City have scored more than Brentford's 15. With Christian Eriksen standing over dead balls, it seems highly likely that Brentford will find the net at least once. Leeds, meanwhile, have scored a meagre two goals in their last five games, plus the suspensions to Luke Ayling and Daniel James leave them very light on numbers.

Back Brentford to win @ 2.3

2.3

Ings & Watkins could pull off shock

Man City v Aston Villa
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Aston Villa would like to play progressive football under Steven Gerrard, but are in fact more composed and consistent when forced into a defensive - and counter-attacking - shape. Just as Southampon and Crystal Palace managed across four draws this season, Villa's narrowness and deep block could slow Manchester City right down, leading to nerves rising and City's lack of a striker becoming an issue again.

This is made more likely by the fact Villa will either play in a diamond 4-4-2 or a Christmas Tree 4-3-2-1, both of which would mean four midfielders blocking the central column of the pitch. This is where Man City generally do damage, so if John McGinn has a particularly energetic game then he can get out to stop Kevin de Bruyne without compromising Villa's stifling shape.

At the other end, Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings will counter-attack together in behind the Man City high line, hoping to emulate what Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen did in West Ham's 2-2 draw last weekend. Without Kyle Walker's recovery pace, and without Ruben Dias or John Stones, City are genuinely vulnerable to Villa's attacking threat. There is the distinct possibility of a final day twist.

Back double chance Villa/Draw @ 5.0

5.0

All-out Vieira to overwhelm United

Crystal Palace v Man Utd
Sunday, 16:00

Although it doesn't take top billing on the final day, this is subtly a huge game. Manchester United will be desperate to avoid playing Europa Conference League football next season, especially because the Europa League would offer a vital route back into the Champions League. After a shocking 4-0 defeat to Brighton, it seems likely that Crystal Palace will inflict further damage.

Patrick Vieira seems to want to end the season with a bang. He started Jeffrey Schlupp and Eberichi Eze in a midfield three for the defeat at Everton on Thursday night, showing his aggression and attacking intent. This is the sensible way to line up against a United side in total disarray, playing without confidence and seemingly paralysed with shock by their own abysmal form.

As United hold the majority of possession, aimlessly probing for a route into the final third, Palace will be ready to snap into tackles in their own half before countering at speed. With Wilfried Zaha up against Diogo Dalot and Conor Gallagher facing Nemanja Matic, there are some pretty remarkable mismatches all over the pitch. Frankly Palace are the better side, and will want it more.

Back Palace to beat United @ 3.1

3.1

McNeil v Saint-Maximin the key battle

Burnley v Newcastle
Sunday, 16:00

Burnley only need to match Leeds United's result to survive, but that is not a given. Mike Jackson's initial success has worn off now that opponents are no longer taken by surprise by the interim manager's swivel towards shorter passing and building out from the back. Burnley are playing fewer long balls and fewer crosses than under Sean Dyche, and this doesn't exactly play to the strengths of the squad Dyche built.

Newcastle United will be pleased to find a Burnley team who want to keep the ball on the ground, because inevitably that means a higher defensive line and greater potential to be caught on the break - and Burnley don't have the legs to cope with that. The key battle is between Allan Saint-Maximin and Dwight McNeil, who is back in form after being moved out to the right wing by Jackson.

With Burnley now using more aggressively overlapping full-backs, they are likely to find that Saint-Maximin wins that particular battle. However, with Newcastle winding down and Burnley likely to only need a point, this is probably going to be a dull affair that ends in a draw.

Back a Burnley-Newcastle draw @ 3.4

3.4