Premier League Tips: Spurs to beat Newcastle in 78/1 acca

• Saints to hold Arsenal at half-time

• Fulham to hurt Leeds down wings

• Spurs to win at Tottenham

Zinchenko-less Arsenal to be slowed down

Arsenal v Southampton
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

The psychological impact of the dropped points at West Ham could be huge. Southampton drew 1-1 with Arsenal at St. Mary's this season and although they have changed manager twice since then the template will stay the same. Their defensive formation could suffocate Arsenal, as it did in the 0-0 draw at Old Trafford and 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge.

If nerves have become an issue then a slow start will allow Southampton to dig in, and the chances of that have increased with Oleksandar Zinchenko's injury. Arsenal badly missed his distribution at West Ham where, tellingly, Kieran Tierney only had 67 touches compared to Zinchenko's 119 in the last match Arsenal also held 70% possession.

But Saints have conceded seven goals in their last two 'Big Six' matches and, winless in six, are unlikely to hold out for the whole game. Arsenal might not race out of the blocks this time but the huge gulf in quality between the Premier League's top and bottom club means Mikel Arteta's side should get there - eventually.

Fulham can burst past Leeds' tacklers

Fulham v Leeds
Saturday, 15:00

Before the 3-1 win at Everton, Fulham had won 35 points from 21 games featuring Aleksandar Mitrovic and a meagre four points from the other eight. The difference in the Everton game was using Daniel James as a nine, where he excelled by pulling centre-backs into the channels, but he is ineligible to face his parent club this weekend.

Nevertheless Leeds are completely out of ideas. Their defensive record has got substantially worse since Javi Gracia took charge: they are averaging 2.2 xG against, compared to 1.5 before his appointment. Essentially, Leeds have dropped the line and become too deep, lacking the player profile (or defensive quality) for this style of football.

Crystal Palace and Liverpool are notable for their directness and high volume of dribbling, while Leeds still press in an erratic Bielsa/Marsch way, making it far too easily to bypass onrushing bodies and carry the ball into the final third and hence the 11 goals conceded in their last two.

Consequently even without James's movement the direct running of Willian and Bobby Cordova-Reid (nobody attacks down the flanks as much as Fulham's 78%) should be enough to charge through a Leeds team in free-fall.

Eze to drive through Dyche's midfield

Crystal Palace v Everton
Saturday, 15:00

The main reason for Crystal Palace's record of three wins from three under Roy Hodgson is his use of Eberichi Eze as a number eight in a three-man midfield, which has released his dribbling quality into advanced central areas. Most of the time Palace look the same as they did under Patrick Vieira, except now they can suddenly burst forward if the midfield area is under-stocked.

They will find the same situation again when Everton visit Selhurst Park. Sean Dyche was getting joy in a 4-5-1 with Idrissa Gueye, Abdoulaye Doucoure, and Andre Onana in the middle, but with Doucoure suspended and Onana injured he has switched to a 4-4-2 that looks porous through the middle. Things were particularly bad in the 3-1 defeat to Fulham, when James Garner, given his first start of the season, made just one tackle and no interceptions.

Eze can surely drive through the heart of the Everton shape and take Palace to another win. His numbers have gone through the roof recently, and even putting to one side his three goals in the last two games Eze's successful take-ons have risen from 1.5 per game to 5.0 per game under Hodgson.

This is the biggest tactical mismatch in any Premier League fixture this weekend - unless Dyche surprises us with a 4-5-1, which would require Garner and Tom Davies either side of Gueye.

Son & Kane may mirror Emery method

Newcastle v Tottenham
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Newcastle United were completely undone by Unai Emery's tactics last weekend. Aston Villa's 3-0 victory was built on the narrow movement of wide midfielders Jacob Ramsey and John McGinn, who frequently made late runs to get between the Newcastle defensive and midfield lines, revealing the gaps that are left behind Eddie Howe's number eights.

Bruno Guimaraes had too much space to cover on his own, and that may again be true when Tottenham Hotspur visit on Sunday. Cristian Stellini's desire to play pragmatic defensive football will encourage Newcastle forward, just as Aston Villa did, in turn creating those transitional spaces between the lines. For Spurs, Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son (back in form with three goals in five) will drop into the ten space.

Newcastle, it seems, are vulnerable to the basic components of the Antonio Conte model more than most. The majority of Premier League teams sit back against Spurs to force them to hold unwanted possession, which Newcastle will not do. Unless Eddie Howe makes big alterations in midfield he faces a second successive defeat.