Even though Brendan Rodgers hugely over-achieved in the 2019/20 Premier League season by taking Leicester City to fifth place, it is difficult not to look back on the campaign with regret and disappointment. No matter how good the achievement, no matter how understandable that the Foxes regressed to the mean, falling out of the top four by winning just four points from their final five matches was a crushing blow.
On January 2, Leicester were second in the table and 14 points clear in the top four with 17 league matches remaining. They won just four more games. That is an extremely alarming run of form, and Rodgers can consider himself fortunate that we tend to judge managers more kindly when bad form follows good, rather than the other way around.
Had Leicester begun the 2019/20 season winning 17 points from 17 games, Rodgers may well have been sacked. There is little doubt he needs a strong start to 2020/21 to avoid serious questions being asked.
State of play
Leicester fans might still feel optimistic, but it would be naïve to assume they can recapture their form from the first half of the season, even if a litany of injuries can be blamed for holding them back after the restart. Their attempted transfer market dealings have been fruitless so far, and Rodgers is clearly in need of new recruits to support a thin squad that, perhaps, has been found out.
The partnership between Jamie Vardy and James Maddison needs support, because Rodgers' tactical philosophy - using these two as a fulcrum - has been increasingly nullified by opponents happy to sit deeper and show Leicester the respect granted to a big club. If that weren't worrying enough, Chelsea have spent big, Manchester United could still add a couple of superstars, and Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal improved dramatically under their new managers in post-lockdown football.
Just staying close to the traditional 'big six' will be a huge challenge.
Strengths & Weaknesses
Rodgers' tactics caught a lot of teams by surprise early last season thanks to his use of prosaic possession football mixed with sudden bursts of vertical passing through Youri Tielemans, Maddison, and Vardy. Their best football comes from those explosive moments through the centre of the park, mixed with excellent wing play from Leicester's marauding full-backs Ben Chilwell and Ricardo Pereira.
Leicester's front line also shows unusual positional intelligence thanks to the movement of Ayoze Perez, and at their best the Foxes benefit from building through the inside right channel before switching the ball suddenly to a more direct left-sided player in Demarai Gray or Harvey Barnes, using lopsided wingers to good effect.
But some of these attacking lines have become jaded, and Rodgers' switch to a back three towards the end of the campaign betrayed his unease with the tactical system. Leicester need a new playmaker to take some of the pressure off Maddison, as well as a forward to mix things up when Vardy's pace is ineffective. A lack of variety is their only real weakness.
Transfer business
Aside from a new striker and a new playmaker, Leicester are also after a centre-back to upgrade on Wes Morgan as the third choice and a left-back to replace Chilwell, who is about to join Chelsea for £50 million. That money, plus the £80 million received for Harry Maguire last summer, is yet to be spent, but Leicester are struggling to secure their targets. Being just outside the elite, they are finding it very difficult to attract top players.
Interest in James Tarkowski looks genuine, although other reported targets such as Nathan Ake, Kieran Tierney, and Philippe Coutinho proved unrealistic. Wes McKennie could still join from Schalke and indeed highly rated up-and-comers from mainland Europe are the kind of players Leicester should be looking at.
What supporters expect
Leicester fans are well aware that 2019/20 was their big chance to get into the Champions League, and few expect a serious challenge again. A seventh-place finish, with whoever is in sixth pushed right until the end of the campaign, would represent a success for the Foxes - even if doing so would almost certainly mean going through a rough patch of form at some point.
Supporters were disappointed by their League Cup semi-final defeat to Aston Villa last season, while the 1-0 loss to Chelsea in the FA Cups semi-final just came at the wrong time for the club. Some domestic silverware is an attainable target.
Look out for...
Breakthrough year for Luke Thomas: Rodgers praised left-back Thomas's "tremendous ability" when the academy graduate signed a new four-year deal on Tuesday. The 19-year-old performed superbly in three games towards the end of the season, notably when grabbing an assist in a 2-0 win over Sheffield United. With Chilwell set to leave, and no replacement on the horizon, 2020/21 is Thomas's chance to become a first-team regular.
A strong start to the season: Leicester needed a break, however short. With the pressure of holding onto a top-four place behind them, and with Maddison back from injury, they should be able to play with creative freedom in games against West Brom (a), Burnley (h), West Ham (h), and Aston Villa (h) among their opening five.
...But a nightmare end: Could Leicester's 2020/21 follow exactly the same pattern as the year before? Should Leicester be in the race for a top four or top six finish as the season draws in, they will not feel confident facing Man Utd (a), Chelsea (a), and Spurs (h) in their final three matches.