Nottingham Forest v Chelsea: Hosts can get five or more corners at a big price

• Chelsea have conceded at least five corners in their last six away games

• Forest are 5/2 to get five or more corners

• Sterling 11/10 to score or assist as part of a Bet Builder

Crunch time for Forest

Forest were thoroughly outplayed away at Manchester United last time out, enjoying just 34% of possession and having eight shots to United's 17. To say there was a huge gulf in class on the night is putting it mildly.

Still, they were somewhat unlucky to have had what would have been a rare away goal disallowed by a marginal offside that probably wouldn't have been picked up on had VAR not been called upon to rule on a completely separate possible infringement.

And there's no disgrace in being beaten away from home by an in-form side who have now won their last four games across the league and EFL Cup.

So, this wasn't the sort of match where they would have expected to take points but they'll need to improve in general if they're to beat the drop.

Wayne Hennessey actually made some decent saves on the night despite conceding three and it could have been worse if he hadn't made them, although he was admittedly at fault for Anthony Martial's goal. But Dean Henderson, ineligible to face his parent club, will surely return.

Cheikhou Koyate is a long-term absentee, Jesse Lingard is also currently injured and at best might hope for a place on the bench.

Chelsea better for the break

Sometimes a break doesn't favour an in-form side carrying momentum and sometimes it does favour a side who was struggling going into the break.

It's fair to say Chelsea are so far in the latter category. They came into Tuesday's match on the back of three straight defeats and stopped the bad run with a good 2-0 win over Bournemouth.

Mason Mount, who had a quiet World Cup by his standards, and Kai Havertz, part of a disastrous World Cup campaign for Germany, got the goals.

On-loan midfielder Denis Zakaria and Christian Pulisic, rare starters so far this season, both started.

But it wasn't all good. Reece James, finally back after a lengthy injury, picked up yet another and was substituted after 53 minutes. Whoever fills in for him here is unlikely to have the same impact as James does when fit and in the mood.

Havertz continues to be preferred to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang upfront; Chelsea could be forgiven for wondering if they made a mistake when signing him in the summer.

Not much of interest on the match odds market

Chelsea are 1.695/7, the draw is 4.131/10 and the home win 5.79/2.

It's not the long-term Opta stats that are going to give us any clue as to where the best bet lies in this one.

On the one hand, Chelsea have won their last seven in all competitions against the men in red (the last league match between the two was way back in 1999, though) and have an extremely strong away record against promoted sides. They've lost just one of their last 11, winning eight and drawing two.

On the other hand, Chelsea have been on a poor run away from home recently, losing all of their last three at Newcastle, Man City (EFL Cup) and Brighton respectively.

For some reason they also don't start the calendar year well: it's now six in a row where they've failed to win their first assignment of January.

All stats from Opta.

So, with no long-term stats or other factors giving us a clue and no prices instantly looking wrong, we move on to other markets.

BTTS of some interest

The odds on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are pretty much identical, the former just a tiny bit bigger at 2.0621/20 than the latter at 2.021/1.

Of the two, I prefer that both sides get on the scoresheet. Forest have only failed to score at home once this season in eight matches (a 2-0 defeat to Spurs) and you'd think an improved Chelsea would score themselves, so it looks a decent wager.

Can Forest get to five corners at a big price?

And now to a rare example of value in this match.

In eight home matches this season, Forest have failed to get to five corners in each of their last six. Only in their first two matches of the season did they manage to do so, getting six against both West Ham and Tottenham.

But what's interesting is that Chelsea give away plenty of corners when away from Stamford Bridge.

Remarkably, the pattern is exactly the same as that of Forest.

They kept their opponents to just four in their first two away games of the season (four against each of Everton and Leeds) but conceded at least five in each of their last six away games.

So you'd think that in line with those stats, where Forest have a strike rate of 2/8 of getting over 4.5 corners at home and Chelsea have a strike rate of 6/8 in terms of conceding over 4.5 corners away that Forest getting those five would be close to even money.

But it's not. You can get 5/2. It's a gamble of course, but it's value.

For a little rug of comfort, there's also the fact they got nine at old Trafford in midweek.

A decent Bet Builder

Over in the world of bet Builders, we may have found a good one.

Opta tell us that Raheem Sterling has now been involved in 10 goals (score or assist) in his last 11 away games against promoted sides. He's 11/20 to 'be involved' here and is fresh from an assist last time out.

With so many players missing in midfield and forward positions, Sterling is almost certain to start.

And to that we can add the 'both teams to score' bet which on the Sportsbook is a slightly shorter 20/23 but still an acceptable price. The double comes to 3.37.