Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa: Coutinho to shine against leaky hosts

Forest thrashed at Leicester

Nottingham Forest's miserable Premier League form continued when they were soundly beaten at Leicester last week, the 4-0 loss resulting in them dropping to the bottom of the table.

Steve Cooper's men have lost five league games on the spin, conceding 18 goals in the process, and they are now clear favourites in the Betfair Exchange's Relegation market at 1.444/9.

Widely tipped to lose his job in midweek Cooper did the complete opposite by signing an extended contract, a surprising move that should ensure he's Forest's manager for the time being at least.

It's a move that I don't quite understand. The majority of players at Cooper's disposal now weren't part of his promotion squad, they know only of a season of struggle where their manager has found it difficult to gel together a plethora of new signings.

New contract or not, I doubt for one minute that Cooper will be immune from the sack if Forest are still in the relegation zone with a third of the season remaining.

Back on home soil, Forest are desperate for a good result on Monday night, though worryingly, Opta tell us that they've conceded the most shots at goal (136), including shots on target (56), in the Premier League this season.

Villa's season slowly improving

After losing four of their first five league games, and pressure mounting on boss Steven Gerrard, Aston Villa are now on a three game unbeaten run that includes an excellent 1-1 draw with Manchester City.

Villa then ground out a 1-0 win over Southampton in an utterly drab affair, before drawing 0-0 at Leeds last Sunday in a game where they had a one man advantage for almost all of the second half.

While Gerrard will be delighted with one goal conceded in three games and two clean sheets on the spin, he has to be concerned with Villa's goal return.

They've scored just six goals in eight games this season, only Wolves have scored fewer.

On the flip side, Villa's expected goals scored (xG) so far this term is similar to Mancheter United and Chelsea's who both sat in the top six of the table going into the weekend, suggesting that Villa's attack has the potential to turn chances into goals sooner rather than later.

Philippe Coutinho is one player who will be looking to get among the goals, and having seen James Maddison play a similar role - and tear Forest to shreds - last week to where he'll play on Monday night, he should be licking his lips at the prospect of rediscovering his best form.

Villa favourites to claim the points

In the Match Odds Aston Villa can be backed at 2.245/4, the Draw at 3.55/2, and Nottingham Forest are the outsiders at 3.711/4.

Gerrard's men are yet to win on the road this season (D1, L3), so that has to be a concern, but on Monday night they will be facing the Premier League's most out of form team, and one that is conceding goals for fun.

Cooper's men have conceded eight goals in their last three games at the City Ground, but perhaps just as concerning is the number of chances that they are allowing their opponents.

In four games in front of their own fans this term Forest have conceded 60 shots at goal with 22 of them being on target. That's an average of 15 shots per game with 5.5 shots on target.

If a similar trend continues on Monday night, and with their improved defensive performances of late, I fancy Villa to take the points in a relatively low-scoring game.

We can enhance Villa's win price to 3.02/1 by backing them to win with Under 3.5 Goals being scored in the match.

If you like your quirky stats then the last time Villa kept three clean sheets in a row, two of them also came against Southampton and Leeds, the two sides they've just managed shut-outs against.

You can back an Aston Villa Win to Nil at around 4.03/1 if you fancy Gerrard's men to keep another clean sheet.

Include Coutinho in a Bet Builder

Philippe Coutinho is yet to score or assist this season but there's no denying his ability and it seems only a matter of time before he returns to the form he showed when first joining Aston Villa.

The former Liverpool and Barcelona star was arguably Villa's best player in the 1-0 win over Southampton, and he again looked the most likely man to break the deadlock in the goalless draw with Leeds last week, hitting the crossbar with a second half volley.

James Maddison was granted the freedom of Leicester when starring against Forest last week and if Cooper's men are in a similarly generous mood then Coutinho - who plays in almost an identical position to Maddison - could cause some damage.

I'll include the Brazilian in a Bet Builder - Coutinho to score or assist during the game, Villa to avoid defeat, and Under 3.5 goals to be scored.