Norwich v Brentford: Canaries could have edge in big relegation clash

Survival battle

Norwich have sunk back to the bottom after a run of three straight defeats in the Premier League and their misery was compounded on Wednesday night when they were knocked out of the FA Cup at Liverpool.

That leaves them to concentrate on survival and all is not lost yet. Dean Smith's side have just 17 points but are only five from safety, albeit having played more games than a couple of their key rivals.

Two of their mainstays at the back returned from lengthy absences in the midweek cup tie. Tim Krul was back in goal for the first time in six weeks while Christoph Zimmermann was in central defence, having been out since August.

Krul should keep the gloves but Smith is likely to go back to Grant Hanley, who is available after suspension, and Ben Gibson in central defence.

Full-backs Brandon Williams and Max Aarons missed the cup game with minor injuries but could return here.

Crucial moment

Brentford have gradually slipped into danger with teams like Newcastle and Burnley finding form and the gap to the relegation zone is now only three points.

Thomas Frank's side have taken just a solitary point from their last eight league games, making them clearly the worst team over that period.

Newcastle rank seventh in that form table and Burnley 11th, while even Norwich are 16th, and this looks a crucial moment for the Bees to find some fresh impetus.

Josh Dasilva is suspended after his red card against Newcastle last week and Ivan Toney, having come on as sub later in that match, is set to return to his starting position in attack.

Christian Eriksen, having made an emotional appearance off the bench last week, is in contention for a start along with Sergi Canos and Frank Onyeka.

Form positives hard to find

Neither team has much to recommend them on form. Norwich have been up and down (mostly down) since Smith took charge in mid-November and Brentford's slump goes back even further than the last eight games.

Having gained 12 points from their first seven matches, Frank's side have taken the same number from their last 20 (at a rate of just 0.6 points per game).

Norwich have been going along at 0.65ppg over the course of a dismal season, so there is no getting away from the poor quality of these teams.

The feeling remains that Brentford are the better side, which is reflected in market favouritism at 2.77/4, but they have to start showing it.

Frank's side didn't show it in the reverse fixture on November 6, which was won 2-1 by Norwich in what turned out to be Daniel Farke's last match before he was replaced by Smith.

However, the Bees have a decent W2 D2 L2 record in their other six games against the bottom seven, with the latest of those defeats (2-0 at home to Newcastle last Saturday) influenced by Dasilva's early red card as well as Newcastle's recent improvement.

Norwich's record against the bottom seven is W3 D2 L3, which makes them slightly better than Brentford in that respect. They are unbeaten in three in that category under Smith, which may be the best piece of form available.

It is also worth noting that Norwich under Smith have lost only one out of six when scoring (and that was at Liverpool).

Norwich's scoring rate is not high but Brentford have conceded in 13 of their last 14 league games and that gives the home side a decent chance of taking something from the match.

With a certain degree of trepidation, the selection is Norwich on draw no bet at 2.111/10.

Goals on the rise

This is likely to be nervy but over 2.5 goals at 2.3611/8 looks well priced.

Brentford started off quite tight, with six of their first eight games under 2.5 goals, but their drop in form has led to a rise in goals. Twelve of their subsequent 19 games have gone over 2.5 goals.

The best guide might be what has happened when the two sides have played other teams in the bottom seven.

Norwich have had five out of eight over 2.5 goals in that category and Brentford's overs figure is five out of seven. The 2-1 win for Norwich in the reverse fixture was one of the results in that higher bracket.

Opta Stat

Having kept two clean sheets in their first four Premier League away games (conceding just two goals in the process), Brentford have conceded at least twice in each of their last nine on the road. Only three teams have conceded 2+ goals in 10+ consecutive away games in the competition - Burnley (11 between August 2009 and January 2010), Ipswich (11 between January 1995 and September 2000) and Wimbledon (10 between December 1999 and May 2000). Norwich to repeat their 2-1 win in the reverse fixture is available at 12.523/2.