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Newcastle v Wolves: Goals may be sparse at St James' Park

Dave Tindall
12 March 2023
4:00 min read

Newcastle boss Eddie Howe

Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sun 12 Mar, 16:30

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Newcastle have hit a sticky patch and might find it hard work again when they host improved Wolves on Sunday, says Dave Tindall...

Both sides are really struggling to find the net
Backing 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines makes appeal
Ruben Neves can help land a Bet Builder at 4.47/2

Newcastle need to find goals again

It's been a reality check for Newcastle in the past few weeks with the Magpies failing to secure a first piece of silverware since 1969 and taking just two points from their last four Premier League games.

They come into this one on the back of three straight 2-0 defeats although some context is needed. The losses were to Liverpool, Manchester United (Carabao Cup final) and Manchester City.

The splutters had started with 1-1 draws against West Ham and Bournemouth in the Premier League and, from looking settled in fourth, the Magpies have dropped to sixth.

However, if they won their games in hand, Eddie Howe's men would move back into fourth above Liverpool and Tottenham so there's no reason for the Toon Army to feel too down.

The main reason for the drop-off in form has been their loss of firepower. They drew blanks against Liverpool, City and United and have managed just five goals in their last eight games in all competitions.

Callum Wilson has scored once in his last 14 appearances either side of the World Cup while Alexander Isak has managed only one in 10 since returning from injury.

Wolves still have striking problem

Wolves looked to be in huge trouble earlier in the season when they propped up the table but have racked up wins at a decent rate since Julen Lopetegui took over in November.

Starting from Boxing Day, they've won five of their last 11 top-flight fixtures, the latest coming last weekend via a late winner from Adama Traore against lacklustre Spurs.

Having taken just a single point from the previous three games - against Bournemouth, Fulham and Liverpool - it was a welcome win and kept them looking upwards towards mid-table.

Those three points saw Wolves end last weekend in 13th place although still just five places above the drop zone. In short, there's still plenty of work to be done.

One incredible and unwelcome stat for Wolves is that no striker has netted for the club in the Premier League for over a year.

Diego Costa won't be able to break that sequence as the former Chelsea frontman is set to be out for a month after suffering a knee injury in the victory over Spurs.

Magpies have failed to put away strugglers

Newcastle United

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Nottingham Forest 1 2 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 2 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Manchester City 2 0 Newcastle United
Manchester United 2 0 Newcastle United
Newcastle United 0 0 Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United 0 2 Liverpool

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2 4 Leeds United
Newcastle United 2 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 0 Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool 2 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Fulham 1 1 Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers 0 1 Bournemouth

Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers Sunday 12 March, 16:30

Full stats

With home advantage and Wolves 14 points behind them in the Premier League, it's no surprise to see Newcastle just 1.684/6 to get back to winning ways despite their poor recent form.

Wolves are 6.05/1 to return south with all three points while The Draw is 4.03/1.

Back in August, the two played out a 1-1 draw with Ruben Neves looking to have secured the points before Allan Saint-Maximin popped up with a 90th-minute equaliser.

This looks a game Newcastle should win but here's a list of teams who have managed to take a point at St James' Park this season: Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Leeds, West Ham.

The latter trio are three of the Premier League's bottom five while Leeds and West Ham have won joint fewest points (six) on the road this season.

Low scorelines could be best way to profit

With Newcastle failing to put the ball in the net and Wolves being the joint-lowest scorers in the Premier League alongside Everton with just 19, it's easy to see why Under 2.5 Goals a clear favourite at 1.794/5. Overs is 2.226/5.

Unders has landed in nine of Newcastle's last 10 matches in all comps and in each of Wolves' last four. Add in their 1-1 draw at Molineux and all the signs point to fewer than three goals.

That's an option but I'm going to play a couple of correct scorelines.

Back 1-1 Correct Score @

8.4

Firstly, the 1-1 at 8.415/2 seems fair for a Newcastle team who struggle to score goals. That was the scoreline against both West Ham and Bournemouth last month.

If Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Leeds and West Ham can all hold Newcastle at St James', so can Wolves.

In addition, four of Newcastle's last seven victories have been by a 1-0 margin - a reflection of both their lack of killer instinct and well-grooved defensive structure.

Newcastle are 6.86/1 to win 1-0, a result they'd be more than happy to take.

Back Newcastle 1-0 Correct Score @

6.8

A 0-0? Maybe, but Wolves haven't had one of those since August so I'm happy to leave the goalless draw aside.

Neves best Bet Builder option

With both sides struggling to find a regular goalscorer, it's hard to get too excited about the Anytime/First Goal offerings.

Instead, I'll look to the Cards markets and Ruben Neves.

Back Ruben Neves to be Shown a Card and Under 2.5 Goals @

4.4

The Wolves midfielder has nine yellows this season, the third most in the Premier League, and has picked up bookings in each of his last two games.

He had three in row earlier this season so don't rule out another. One more would see him suspended but perhaps better to get it out of the way now so he's available for the run-in.

Neves to be Shown a Card and Under 2.5 Goals pays 4.47/2 on the Bet Builder. That's easy to envisage in what should be a combative contest.

Opta stat

This match pits the team with the fewest goals conceded (Newcastle, 17) against the side with the joint fewest goals scored (Wolves, 19) in the Premier League this season. Wolves also have the lowest shot conversion rate this season (6.6%), while Newcastle have conceded just 6.6% of their shots faced this term (17/256) - a league-low.

Staked: 39.70pts

Returned: 35.80pts

P/L: -3.90pts

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