English Premier League Tips

Newcastle v Manchester City: Difficult to dismiss ominous Citizens

Pep Guardiola - Man City
Man City have lost just one of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Newcastle

Defending champions Manchester City face a tricky test when travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle on Super Sunday. Mark O'Haire highlights the value.

Pope's intervention saves Newcastle

Newcastle boss Eddie Howe admitted his Magpies side "rode our luck" and "needed every ounce of energy to see out" last week's 0-0 draw with Brighton.

New goalkeeper Nick Pope was named Man of the Match at the Amex Stadium as the England international made key saves in both halves to enable United were able to take a share of the south coast spoils.

Following the Toon's comfortable win at home to newly-promoted Nottingham Forest on MD1, Howe was hoping Newcastle could "impose their style" on the Seagulls.

The Magpies had opportunities to hurt their opponents on the counter-attack in the first half but managed a single shot on-target throughout the 90 minutes as the final ball was often poor.

Nevertheless, Newcastle remain unbeaten in the Premier League and are yet to concede a goal with Howe adding, "I'm always disappointed not to win but very pleased with a point in the end. We rode our luck at times but also showed a lot of spirit and unity. We were under the cosh but we stayed calm and we battled through it."

Howe set up his team in United's usual 4-3-3 formation but was forced to play Dan Burn left-back with Matt Targett ruled out with a dead leg.

The Toon are hoping to have Targett, Jamal Lewis, Emil Krafth and Ryan Fraser back in the fold for Sunday, although Jonjo Shelvey is a long-term absentee.

Man City brush Bournemouth aside

Manchester City sent out another ominous warning to the rest of the Premier League after brushing aside newcomers Bournemouth 4-0 at The Etihad last Saturday despite big-money signing Erling Haaland failing to score.

The champions produced a blistering first 45 minutes, leading 3-0 at the break thanks to goals from Ilkay Gundogan, Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden.

Despite taking their foot off the gas in the second period, there was still time for the Citizens to add a late fourth through Jefferson Lerma's own goal. And Pep Guardiola showed his squad with praise post-match, saying: "The team did a really good performance against a team that is well structured defensively and offensively as well with good patterns."

Guardiola made one change from the side that cantered to a 2-0 victory at West Ham on MD1 as Riyad Mahrez replaced Jack Grealish, with the £100m England playmaker dropping to the bench.

But it was skipper De Bruyne who stole the show, the playmaker barely got out of second gear, but was still head and shoulders above everyone else on the field.

Earlier this week, City completed the £11m signing of Sergio Gomez from Anderlecht on a four-year deal. The 21-year-old left-back could be included in Guardiola's squad on Sunday, whilst Kalvin Phillips is expected to be back in contention after missing out against Bournemouth. Aymeric Laporte isn't expected back until September.

Citizens a short price at St James'

Manchester City have dominated this fixture in recent seasons. The Citizens have suffered a sole reverse in the past 29 Premier League meetings with the Magpies (W24-D4-L1), scoring in each of the last 27 head-to-heads.

The past five showdowns have all been won by City, who have scored at least four goals in the most recent three such contests.

Newcastle 9.4017/2 have opened their account with back-to-back clean sheets - the Toon haven't kept three successive shutouts to start a campaign since 1961.

The Magpies boast a reasonable W9-D4-L2 return at home under Eddie Howe, silencing six of their 15 guests. However, the hosts' two defeats in that sequence arrived against Man City and Liverpool.

Manchester City 1.402/5 already top the charts for all the major metrics after MD2. The Citizens have tabled W15-D4-L1 in road trips since the start of last season and arrive on Tyneside unbeaten in 19 Premier League away dates.

The Blue Moon also boast a W22-D4-L2 record when travelling to non top-six finishers going back to the start of 2019/20.

City could seal narrow success

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.645/8 with the market expecting around 3.1 goals. Yet matches at St James' Park under Eddie Howe have rarely been high-scoring.

Twelve (80%) of 15 such Premier League encounters here have featured fewer than four goals, and only one fixture has managed five goals or more. Overall, 10 (67%) match-ups paid-out for Under 2.5 backers.

Liverpool scraped a 1-0 success here during last season's run-in and Manchester City's away days have tended to be more conservative affairs over the previous 12 months.

The Citizens have seen just two of their past 20 games as guests break the Over 4.5 Goals barrier, and therefore backing Man City to win and Under 4.5 Goals is a nice base to work from.

Chucking in Man City to have 4 or more shots on-target into the Bet Builder gives us a solid [1.81] poke. The visitors have fired in at least four efforts on-target in 18 of those previous 20 away games going back to the beginning of 21/22.

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Mark's 2022/23 Profit/Loss

Staked: 8 pts

Returned: 3.75 pts

P/L: -4.25 pts

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Mark O'Haire avatar

Mark O'Haire

Long-standing betting.betfair tipster and member of the award-winning podcast, Football... Only Bettor.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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