Newcastle v Arsenal: Gunners to buckle under Top 4 Finish pressure

Premier League survival confirmed for Magpies

With results going their way in midweek Newcastle's Premier League survival was confirmed, and now their attentions turn to what would be a remarkable top half finish.

Remember, this is a Newcastle side that failed to win any of their opening 14 league games this season and a team that traded odds-on in the Relegation market for long periods before Eddie Howe's appointment.

That Howe was named on the shortlist for Premier League Manager of the Season a few days ago sums up what an incredible job he has done since taking over the north-east outfit in November of last year.

Newcastle have won 10 of their last 16 league games, includng a run of six straight home victories before a narrow 1-0 defeat to Liverpool in their last game at St James' Park.

Newcastle's injury list remains lengthy with Federico Fernandez, Jamal Lewis, Isaac Hayden, Jonjo Shelvey and Joe Willock all ruled out for the visit of Arsenal, though Ryan Fraser is fit again and Kieran Trippier is expected to make his first start since recovering from a broken foot.

Champions League football in the balance following Sunday Spurs win

Arsenal's grip on Champions League qualification has loosened in the past few days, firstly thanks to their 3-0 loss in the North London Derby on Thursday night, and then again thanks to Tottenham's 1-0 win over Burnley on Sunday.

The Gunners still have matters in their own hands however, and maximum points from their last two games against Newcastle on Monday night and at home to Everton on Sunday will see them finish fourth ahead of their fierce city rivals.

In the Top 4 Finish market Arsenal can be backed at 2.1211/10, with Tottenham just marginally preferred by the layers at 1.865/6.

Mikel Arteta's men will travel to Newcastle in decent form having won four straight games - including wins over Chelsea, Manchester United and West Ham - prior to their defeat to Spurs, though Thursday's loss has the potential to be more damaging than just a dent in confidence.

Rob Holding will definitely miss the game through suspension, while Gabriel appeared to hobble off injured against Spurs. He and fellow centre-back Ben White will be assessed on match day, though Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey remain on the sidelines.

Gunners unconvincing favourites for the win

Arsenal are the 1.9110/11 favourites to take all three points and you have to feel that the 'must win versus nothing to play for' factor has had some influence on the market.

I have to admit that I'm not a huge fan of betting on end-of-season games where at least one team has nothing to play for, but the best approach always has to be to trust such teams to be 100% committed.

Using that approach would mean that we have a massively improved Newcastle team, that has been in excellent form of late on home soil and still with the incentive to finish in the top half of the table, facing an Arsenal team playing under huge pressure that could be without two or three key defenders.

Under the above scenario then I'd be all over Newcastle to win at 4.57/2, and I see no reason why I shouldn't tip them up at that price.

The Draw can be backed at 3.8514/5, while the slightly more cautious approach of getting Newcastle or the Draw on side can be backed at 2.0811/10 in the Double Chance market.

Trippier backed to do his old side a favour

As alluded to above my bets are fewer and stakes lower on end of season matches so I'm more than happy to just roll the dice with a Newcastle win in this clash without delving into any of the popular side markets.

But then I remembered a former Tottenham player is likely to return from injury, and he's no ordinary former Tottenham player.

Kieran Trippier is arguably the man who got the Newcastle revival started. His Janurary transfer window arrival at the club was a huge boost, and his two goals scored (from just four starts) helped that Magpies to six valuable points.

I dare say he would love nothing better than to get one over the Gunners and do his former club a ginormous favour.

If he starts - and I fully expect him to - then he will be a key player for Newcastle. He'll get down the wing, cross balls, take free-kicks (literally from anywhere) and all that adds up to him hopefully having a few shots at goal and creating chancs for his teammates.

Trippier is 5/1 to score or assist at anytime on the Sportsbook and I think that's a cracking price.