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Newcastle chasing third straight league win
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Two clashes between sides have featured a total of two goals
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Magpies' striker Isak on strong form
Isak the missing piece of the Magpies' puzzle?
While Newcastle United's push for Champions League qualification has been underpinned by an excellent defensive effort - the Magpies have leaked a league-low 19 goals in 26 top-flight matches - had they been more clinical in front of goal they might have been in an even better position.
Eddie Howe's men have drawn 11 PL games this term, and a big underperformance in attack is probably what has stopped them from turning those stalemates into narrow victories.
According to Infogol's Expected Goals data, Newcastle have racked up an Expected Goals For figure of 50.2, but in reality they have only found the net 39 times.
That's right up there with the worst differentials in the league, on a par with underperforming sides like Liverpool and Chelsea.
However, the recent return to fitness of Swedish international Alexander Isak has provided a boost.
The former Real Sociedad forward scored the opener in the 2-1 win over Wolves, and scored a match-winning brace in a 2-1 victory at Nottingham Forest last time out.
That double included a last-gasp penalty to turn one point into three. Isak has scored six top-flight goals in just ten appearances this term, and 14 of his 24 goal attempts have been on target.
Joelinton is back after a two-match ban, while defender Sven Botman and goalkeeper Nick Pope are hopeful they can shake off minor knocks. Miguel Almiron is expected to miss the game, while former Everton winger Anthony Gordon is short of full fitness.
Red Devils have to halt their slide
Football moves quickly, and just a few short weeks ago, Manchester United were being talked up as potential disruptors in the Premier League title race.
However, a run of three Premier League wins in eight has opened the door to the likes of Newcastle, Tottenham and perhaps even Liverpool.
There's a sense that a busy schedule (United have already won the League Cup, they'll face Brighton in the FA Cup semi-finals and they have reached the quarter-finals of the Europa League) is catching up with Erik ten Hag's squad, and they'll be without key players this weekend.
Casemiro is suspended after picking up his second Premier League red card of the season, while Christian Eriksen has been out for weeks.
That is a lot of quality to be without on both sides of the ball, and there are doubts over Anthony Martial, Marcel Sabitzer, Raphael Varane and talismanic forward Marcus Rashford.
Ten Hag has faced Newcastle twice, and has seen his side held to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford, while they ground out a 2-0 win at Wembley in the League Cup final.
The Magpies had long spells in the final where they were arguably the better side, but perhaps let themselves down in both boxes, as Manchester United were praised for a streetwise and disciplined display.
There are concerns over Manchester United's away form. They have won just four of their last ten Premier League road matches, and they have struggled to contain some of the big hitters.
Manchester City put six past them (Erling Haaland and Phil Foden netted a hat-trick apiece in that derby), Liverpool hit them for seven and Arsenal edged a pulsating clash by three goals to two.
Tyneside tussle could be tight
The two meetings between these sides this term suggest there won't be too many clear-cut chances created, and although Newcastle will be motivated by revenge for the cup final loss and a passionate crowd, I don't expect a gung-ho display.
Eight of Newcastle's last ten Premier League games have featured fewer than three goals, and 16 of their 26 PL games have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land.
Given that this game comes after the international break, there might be a lack of rhythm overall, and I'm quite happy to back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.9720/21.
Isak can spark Bet Builder
Given Isak's recent form, and his ability to hit the target, I'm including him in my Bet Builder on the Sportsbook.
We can back Under 3.5 Goals, Over 6.5 Corners, Isak to have at least one shot on target and Bruno Fernandes to commit at least one foul at a combined price of 2.6533/20.
Fernandes has committed 32 fouls in 25 league games, and the League Cup final was quite a tetchy affair, the kind of game that often sees the Portuguese international lose his temper.
As for the corner count, Newcastle games in the PL average a league-high 10.9 corners, whereas Manchester United's average 9.5, so we should clear the Over 6.5 Corners line comfortably.