Manchester United v Fulham: Back 12/1 Bet Builder at Old Trafford

• Final-day goals trend worth noting

• Fulham defender looks big at 2/13.00 for 1+ shot

• 12/113.00 Bet Builder suggestion for Old Trafford clash

It comes but once a year and, like Christmas, the final day of the Premier League season can offer up presents.

While I wouldn't go so far as to say the bookies are offering gifts, there are certainly opportunities to be had.

Final-day betting angles

Over the years, I've liked two angles on this day - going high on the goal lines and low on the card lines. Especially in games where there is nothing at stake.

That's the case here with United having secured their Champions League berth on Thursday, while Fulham have long been destined for a respectable mid-table finish.

I'm not keen on the cards angle at Old Trafford though.

Both these teams feature in the top five when it comes to yellow cards received, while referee Robert Jones sits fourth in the cards-per-game standings in the list of regular top-flight officials. Some habits tend to linger.

Goal potential at Old Trafford

Goals seem more likely, however.

There have been some massive, bizarre scorelines on the final day in the past decade and they've usually come in 'meaningless' games. Here's a quick snapshot:

West Brom 5-5 Manchester United
Stoke 6-1 Liverpool
Hull 1-7 Tottenham
Tottenham 5-4 Leicester
Palace 5-3 Bournemouth

The latter was particularly interesting given it featured a Palace team who scored only 14 goals in their 18 other home matches that season. There's that final-day effect.

For the record, last season saw 18 of the 20 teams score with 37 goals netted across the 10 games, four of which saw over 4.5 goals.

The markets, however, do seem wary of this angle with over 2.5 just 1.511/2 and over 3.5 at 2.285/4.

United to win with both teams scoring has potential at 13/82.63 - they were clinical against Chelsea the other night and the situation means they are able to play expansively.

Fulham will offer a threat though.

Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored three times in two appearances since returning from the ban he picked up on his last visit to Old Trafford and the Cottagers are finishing the season well with seven points gained from their last three games.

Looming Cup final an issue

The problem here is not being sure of United's selection approach.

They've got an FA Cup final to follow six days later and this match comes less than 72 hours after a full-strength team saw off Chelsea.

Boss Erik ten Hag did suggest he'd been going strong though, telling Sky Sports of the need to "stay in the rhythm" and speaking of his desire to protect an unbeaten home record which stretches back to August.

He will, however, have to replace Antony, who was stretchered off on Thursday, while Luke Shaw also departed at half time and Marcus Rashford limped along at times.

It would not be a surprise for anyone carrying a knock to miss out given what lies ahead.

For Fulham, Mitrovic's recent return is a boost to a team which lost Tim Ream and Andreas Pereira a few weeks ago. Dan James is a doubt for this one so could miss out against his old club.

Given the United situation, it may well be worth waiting for the team news an hour before kick-off before deciding whether (or how) to side with the hosts.
The Exchange market may well give you an indication of what Ten Hag will do prior to that announcement - United could end up being a lay.

2/1 props play is best bet

Given the doubts, I'll leave them for now and instead focus on a props play which is easily my best bet for the game.

Tosin Adarabioyo should start in the Fulham backline and he's a tasty price at 2/13.00 to have 1+ shot.

The 6ft 5in centre-back has managed this in seven of his last 10 matches, hitting three against both Crystal Palace and Leicester recently.

Notably, United have given up plenty of shots from set-pieces, from which Adarabioyo is a big threat.

Only Bournemouth, Leicester and Forest have conceded more shots from these situations than United, while Adarabioyo is also a player who isn't afraid to shoot form distance - if Fulham are struggling to make inroads, then that will certainly be an option.

For those putting Bet Builders together there are other options.

Bruno Fernandes has landed the 'score or assist' bet in seven of his 11 Premier League games at Old Trafford in 2023 and that's on offer at 4/51.80 which looks decent if you subscribe to the loads-of-goals theory.

Casemiro's threat in forward areas was also much-talked-about on Thursday when he scored for the sixth time this calendar year.

He's hit 2+ shots in seven of his last 12. Add in the venue and mid-table opposition, then 6/52.20 may offer a bit of value.

For those interested, the Adarabioyo-Fernandes-Casemiro treble pays just over 12/113.00.

Opta fact

Fulham have lost 18 of their last 21 away league games against Manchester United, with their only win in that time coming in October 2003 under Chris Coleman (3-1).