English Premier League

Man United v Arsenal: Back Declan Rice at 15/8 to score or assist

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta will be eyeing a clean sheet

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - is in the preview chair for the big Super Sunday clash and although he is eyeing the unders, he also can't pass up Declan Rice's price to score or assist...

Manchester United vs Arsenal
Sunday May 12, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

As a punter that relishes going against the grain and backing games to go under a set goal-line, this season has been tough. The goals have flowed at a rate never seen before in the Premier League and punters like me who get tempted in by under goals have been stung. At the time of writing on Friday, there have been 1,166 goals scored in the Premier League, meaning we've already surpassed the previous record of 1,084 last season.

There has been an average of 3.26 goals per game this season with the previous best at 2.85 last season. This has led to never-before-seen prices for over goals in the Premier League. The traditional line was of course over 2.5 but now, as seen in this game, the line is now set at over 3.5 with 2.021/1 on offer for this game to surpass it.

My instincts are telling me that price is way too short for a match of this nature where Arsenal look likely to be in "job done" mode. Get in, get out with the result and move onto the next.

Investing in this Arsenal defence looks a shrewd play. This phenomenal backline has now conceded just two goals in the last seven Premier League matches away from home and has conceded a per-90 average of just 0.67-worth of expected goals across the last 16 Premier League games.

Mikel Arteta is a safety-first manager who has drilled this team to love the art of keeping clean sheets. That should take this game down a low scoring avenue and one that swims against the goal bonanza we've been seeing. I'm happy to get involved at the under 3.5 goal market at 1.9620/21 on the Betfair Exchange.

Very nice price on Rice to score or assist

Declan Rice is likely to play a major part in the an away win - I think he's been the best player in the Premier League over the past six weeks. And he's even been on David Moyes' mind. He was asked why are West Ham conceding so many goals this season? And his reply was "Declan Rice".

Good to see Moyes taking some responsibility for West Ham's dismal run of late. Or not.

You can see where Moyes is coming from as Rice is a monster out of possession in terms of interceptions and breaking up play. Any team would miss that.

But I've really enjoyed watching him develop his game further forward this season too - he's a very powerful runner and great technically, and Arteta has tried to embrace that side of his game. He's got 15 goal involvements this season in the Premier League - that's seven goals and eight assists. Obviously, that's his best return of his career.

And over the last 11 Premier League games, Arsenal have played a defensive minded player in the midfield, whether that be Jorginho or Thomas Partey, and Rice's attacking output has spiked even more.

To the extent he's had 22 shots in his last nine starts and eight shots on target.

But what I've really been impressed with is the goal involvements. Rice has had nine in his last 11 Premier League appearances as he's played a huge part in the way Arsenal have constructed their attacks down the left-side of their midfield. He takes corners from the left where Arsenal are so strong from set pieces and he's making 3.7 runs into the box per game over his last 10 Premier League appearances.

I'm liking the look of him registering another goal or assist in this game which is available to back at 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

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