Man Utd v Aston Villa: 50/1 Watkins and Villa can inflict further woe on hosts

• Aston Villa can cash in on a United team in despair

• Back Unai Emery's side on the handicaps

• Ollie Watkins can star in a big-priced Bet Builder

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Man Utd v Aston Villa
Sunday 25 May, 16:00
Live on TNT Sports 1

A bleak season ends with one final punch

It's been a dreadful, dreadful season for Manchester United and when they had one chance to salvage something, they blew it.

Losing to Spurs in the final of the Europa League in Spain on Wednesday night was depressing enough. But to be defeated with such a whimper took the despondency to new levels.

United have lost 18 league matches this season. Half of those have come at home. Their goal difference for the campaign is -12. Only the bottom three - generally regarded as one of the worst relegation trios in a while - have scored fewer goals than United's 42. 

The Glazers remain public enemy No.1 and Sir Jim Ratcliffe is becoming more unpopular by the day. It's all a hideous mess. 

Villa have clear mission - win!

While the title and relegation issues were sewn up a long time ago, the race to make the top five and secure a Champions League spot is going all the way to the wire and Aston Villa are in the thick of it.

Villa have 66 points, the same as Newcastle and Chelsea and one more than Nottingham Forest. But due to a clearly inferior goal difference that can't be flipped, Unai Emery's side start the game in sixth place.

All they can do is keep up their end of the bargain and win this game. It really is on a knife edge as the Opta supercomputer gives them a 42.6% chance of finishing in the top five. The exchange makes Villa 2.285/4 for a Top 5 Finish.

Villa red-hot favourites

We've never seen betting like this on a Man Utd v Villa game but it really doesn't come as a surprise.

Aston Villa, the away team let us remind ourselves, are just 8/111.73 for the win. Manchester United are 7/24.50 and The Draw 3/14.00.

Villa are a form team and it's over a long period. In the second-half of the season no side has banked more points than their 37. Champions Liverpool and Manchester City have equalled that tally.

Over that same period of 18 games, United have managed 17 points. Only the relegated teams and Spurs are worse.

Villa have won nine of their last 11 top-flight games. I fully expect them to make in 10 out of 12. And then some. 

Handicaps the way to cash in on Villa romp

If the angle is United crashing to a new low after the emptiness of their Europa League final defeat, let's really try and play it.

And one method is playing Villa -2 at 11/26.50 on the Alternative Handicaps.

There are two ways into this. First, it the sheer ineptness of Manchester United. Second is that Villa have landed such a bet in two of their last four away games - at Brighton and Southampton.

If Villa go a goal up the mood will turn really sour. At 2-0 it could be really toxic and from there it could only get worse for the hosts.

Watkins the man for Bet Builders

Let's finish with a bit of end-of-season fun on the Bet Builders.

To be honest, there aren't that many obvious Villa players for goalscorers so let's go obvious and focus on Ollie Watkins. The striker has scored in three of his last five away Premier League games but all of those were the opening/only goal.

So, as the first leg of a big-priced Bet Builder, let's start with Watkins breaking the deadlock.

As I'm going for three Villa goals at least, I'll also play the Assist markets and have a punt on Watkins and Morgan Rogers to set one up.

The pair have 18 assists between them in the Premier League this season and should relish getting stuck into a United side whose confidence is shot to pieces.

Now read Premier League Top 5 Finish: Are Chelsea set for final day failure?