Man City v Arsenal: Take 4/1 hosts to break down Gunners in second 45

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Can Gunners avoid falling at the finish?

Pick your sporting metaphor. A long-distance runner heavy-legged at the end of a marathon. A cricket team who have stopped playing their shots. Crisp about to be chased down by Red Rum in the Grand National.

All these apply to an Arsenal side who were flowing for much of the season but now seem to be running out of gas when it matters most. The prize for beating Manchester City at the Etihad is huge but dare Mikel Arteta throw off the shackles and go for it in Sunday's showdown at the Etihad? History, instinct and common sense says he plays it tight and goes for the draw which would keep City at arm's length.

As it stands, Arsenal are six clear of City having played a game extra. They have a superior goal difference: +38 to +35. The Gunners also have a Champions League semi-final to look forward to; City do not. And yet there's an awful feeling among the Arsenal fan base that this potentially monumental season is somehow slipping away. 

City have been there and done it 

The perception of City has oscillated between them being a work in progress and the City of old. It's the latter view that most pundits seem to be holding now, especially after City beat Arsenal in last month's Carabao Cup final.

That Wembley battle, settled by two goals from Nico O'Reilly, seemed to confirm that when it comes to the crunch and silverware is being handed out, City are the team you can trust.

And with the last 10 meetings at the Etihad showing seven wins for City and three draws, it's no surprise why many can only see one outcome on Sunday.  

Hard to look past City but waiting game could pay

For Sunday's showdown, Man City are 17/201.85, Arsenal 17/54.40 and The Draw 27/103.70. 

Okay, this isn't Brazil 70 against a stubborn mid-table Premier League side but City's far greater array of attacking weapons will be hard to keep out.

The very fact that O'Reilly is City's top scorer in all competitions since the start of February shows that the hosts don't just put everything on Erling Haaland.

Arsenal's biggest strength is their defence so we're likely to see lots of City knocking at the door, trying to find a pass and Gunners defenders high-fiving when they make a big defensive block or interception that goes for a corner.  

In an ideal playing of this game in his head, Arteta will envisage an immaculate defensive performance and the Gunners nicking a goal from a set-piece. It's not beyond the realms so note the price of a 1-0 Arsenal win - it's a 10/1 chance. As is 0-0.

But the stat I keep coming back to is the one which shows that City have won 29 of their last 32 Premier League games in April.

City seem far fresher than Arsenal both physically and mentally after being knocked out of the Champions League early by Real Madrid and they also have attacking options from the bench that the Gunners don't. Bukayo Saka misses this one through injury.

Arsenal have managed just three goals in their last five outings while City have plundered nine in their last three - v Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea. 

But rather than take that odds-on City price, there's scope to get more adventurous and back Draw/Man City in the Half Time/Full Time Market.

It was 0-0 between this pair at half-time in the Carabao Cup final and also goalless at the break in City's 3-0 win at Chelsea. Even against Liverpool, City hadn't hit their stride early and the first goal didn't come until the 39th minute.

Check out Cherki for another assist

Rayan Cherki is great for TikTok highlights reels but it's his actual numbers that make him really stand out.

Cherki's 10 Premier League assists this season have come at an average of every 138 minutes, a phenomenal rate which puts him in very elite company.

In a game where Arsenal's rigid structure will thwart most of City's attacks, Cherki's penchant for the unusual and unexpected is ideal. Rather than see the game in straight lines, the Frenchman is all curves and angles and the 11/43.75 for another assist is definitely worth a punt. He's set up a goal 13 times this season and eight of those were at home.

Gunners can top card count

Cherki could also help land us a bookings match bet.

The playmaker's spot of touchline ball juggling didn't go down well with Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final and earned him a whack in the air from Ben White.

White was booked and it's likely the Gunners won't have forgotten what could be perceived as arrogance rather than fun.

In which case, Arsenal look a good bet at 11/10 to receive the most cards. That would have been the call anyway with Arsenal likely to have their backs to the wall for most of the game but the Cherki angle adds to it.

To make that bet even more compelling, in the last seven head-to-heads between this pair when Arsenal weren't the home team (i.e. matches at Wembley or the Etihad), the Gunners picked up more cards than City in six of them. It makes sense. Give it a go.

Combining the Arsenal most cards and Cherki assist punts in a Bet Builder pays just over 6/17.00.

A final comment. There seems to be an uncontested opinion that if City win, they're almost certain to go and claim the title.

But there could be an overreaction in the market if City take victory on Sunday and therefore scope to back Arsenal to provide another twist.

Across the last two seasons, City's longest winning run in the league is six matches and they'd have to extend that to seven to go 100% in the run-in.

Arsenal, if they could gather themselves, have a run-in that shows: Newcastle (h), Fulham (h), West Ham (a), Burnley (h), Crystal Palace (a). All five opponents are in the bottom half.

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