Man City v Arsenal: Back Pep Guardiola's men to win in low scoring clash

• City backed to stretch 38-game unbeaten run at home

• Arsenal's 1-0 win over City not form to trust

• 'Big three' clashes have been low scoring

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Man City v Arsenal
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports

I have trust issues with Arsenal when the going gets hot.

Until I've seen them play with cool heads in a make-or-break game at this stage of the season, I can't trust them with my money.

I've had this fear with Arsenal for most of the season and the performance in the second leg against Porto only heightened those fears. I thought they were poor against a very limited Porto side and were fortunate to grind through to the next round on penalties. They created just 0.92 worth of expected goals in 120 minutes - I think the occasion might have got the better of them.

And now they face the toughest test in football. A trip to a juggernaut.

City are unbeaten in their last 38 games in all competitions at home (W33 D5) and they've beaten Arsenal seven times on the spin in the Premier League at the Etihad by an aggregate score of 21-4.

At this stage, City are a more mature, more ruthless and more robust team than Arsenal in these kinds of high-stakes environments. I have full trust in Pep Guardiola's side.

I'm very keen on Man City's win price here at 1.9620/21 on the Betfair Exchange.

I think the reverse fixture between the teams - that 1-0 win for Arsenal - has been factored way too much into the market. That wasn't the real Man City that day - they had no Rodri, had just lost at Wolves and it was a nothing game involving two very solid defences that was settled by a heavily deflected goal. Despite being miles off it, City still won the expected goals battle that day 0.48 v 0.39.

So, I've approached this game by labelling that 1-0 for Arsenal as a piece of form that can't be trusted.

It's worth noting that Man City went off 1.625/8 on the Exchange for their 4-1 win in April over Arsenal - a game where they didn't give them a sniff, winning the xG battle 2.53 v 0.48.

And I haven't seen enough from Arsenal this season to merit why City's win price when assessing the probability has lessened by 11 per cent from 1.625/8 to 1.9520/21. Yes, William Saliba didn't play in that 4-1 defeat and Arsenal now have Declan Rice but I just think that 1-0 win at the Emirates is factored too much into the market.

Also, a key factor is just how strong Man City are at defending set pieces.

They've conceded the fewest set piece goals this season, just two, that's three fewer than any other team. Arsenal have scored 27% of their goals via set pieces this season, that's the third highest percentage in the Premier League. They remain heavily reliant on set pieces - there's nothing wrong with that - but City have the organisation to negate that threat and win this match.

Patience required for City in low goal affair?

Although I'm confident to row in with a Manchester City victory, this won't be like the other romps City have enjoyed over the Gunners. This Arsenal side are defensively majestic on their day and it's this resolution in that key area of the pitch that will be main reason if they are to go all the way this season.

City are going to need patience and bring their best finishing to the table. Just one goal could be enough.

Both managers want to dominate the ball. Both managers want to force errors off the opponent. It's hard to see this game descending into a shootout scenario like the Liverpool v Manchester City did when played in a similarly title-deciding environment.

With a tight game expected, the drift factor is at play for a game of this magnitude where the draw is by no means a terrible result for either manager.

That has been seen in meetings between the "big three" of Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal this season in all competitions. In those seven meetings, six of those games have fallen under the 2.5 goal line.

The goal line expectancy has been set around 2.75 here with under 2.5 trading at 2.001/1. That offers a way in for those that can stomach betting against goals but I'm happy to play the under 3.5 for a bit of added security seeing as I'm pretty pot committed to that City outright win price.

We can grab 17/102.70 on a City win and under 3.5 goals. That's a solid proposition.

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